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What does it mean to "afford" the burden and be "fine"? Yes, a collapse of the EU economy and the EUR is unlikely, but other things are already happening: massi

by blub 4y ago

What does it mean to "afford" the burden and be "fine"? Yes, a collapse of the EU economy and the EUR is unlikely, but other things are already happening: massive heating and electricity bills for businesses and individuals. Companies going bankrupt. Manufacturers of essential materials shutting down. And so on and so forth. How does this reconcile with warnings by the Belgian government that we can expect between 5 and 10 hard years? Or the comment by the French president, that the "end of abundance" has arrived - which perhaps wouldn't be so bad, if it really were an era of abundance for large parts of EU societies.

sydd 4y ago
> What does it mean to "afford" the burden and be "fine"? That the EU has 2 choices in the long term: 1. bow to Russia's demands and lift the sanctions. Gas will be turned on and its price will fall, but now Russia knows that they have a weapon that they can and will use against the EU when they see it fit. Also it would result in a huge uproar, most EU states are very pro-sanctions despite the hardships. 2. Do not lift sanctions. In this case the gas price will stay high, but will certainly fall long term. Also Russia will have no leverage against the EU. Also the situation is not so dire as it seems: Russia supplied ~15% of the energy to EU, so if the EU can lower its energy demand by a bit and get a bit of energy from extra sources they are set. People did the math and its possible, likely in 2 years there will be a minimal effect of no gas flowing from Russia. As for the "hard years", its not just the energy crisis caused by Russia turning off the gas valve: After the constant boom of the 2010s its time for the bubble to burst. Global warming effects are starting to hit hard, the supply chain issues starting with COVID and getting worse with the war made governments realize that you cannot outsource everything; moving back production to the West will casue lots of price hikes. Also boomers are now starting to retire causing the most experienced part of the workforce to shrink drastically and being replaced by pensioners who just cost states money. So no matter what we do with Russia the next 15 years will be hard -- I'd say that the belgian government was optimistic with the 5-10 years estimate.

by blub 4y ago

sydd 4y ago

> What does it mean to "afford" the burden and be "fine"? That the EU has 2 choices in the long term: 1. bow to Russia's demands and lift the sanctions. Gas will be turned on and its price will fall, but now Russia knows that they have a weapon that they can and will use against the EU when they see it fit. Also it would result in a huge uproar, most EU states are very pro-sanctions despite the hardships. 2. Do not lift sanctions. In this case the gas price will stay high, but will certainly fall long term. Also Russia will have no leverage against the EU. Also the situation is not so dire as it seems: Russia supplied ~15% of the energy to EU, so if the EU can lower its energy demand by a bit and get a bit of energy from extra sources they are set. People did the math and its possible, likely in 2 years there will be a minimal effect of no gas flowing from Russia. As for the "hard years", its not just the energy crisis caused by Russia turning off the gas valve: After the constant boom of the 2010s its time for the bubble to burst. Global warming effects are starting to hit hard, the supply chain issues starting with COVID and getting worse with the war made governments realize that you cannot outsource everything; moving back production to the West will casue lots of price hikes. Also boomers are now starting to retire causing the most experienced part of the workforce to shrink drastically and being replaced by pensioners who just cost states money. So no matter what we do with Russia the next 15 years will be hard -- I'd say that the belgian government was optimistic with the 5-10 years estimate.