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I agree with you, but to play devil's advocate, what if I changed your comment to: Agreed. I know nothing about automotive engineering or car design, but the h

I agree with you, but to play devil's advocate, what if I changed your comment to: Agreed. I know nothing about automotive engineering or car design, but the hype around Tesla always puzzled me. If this start up can all of a sudden make an economical electric car, then surely the existing automotive manufacturers could do it quicker and cheaper. Toyota, Mercedes, Ford, etc... already have existing designs from decades past that they could at least use as a base. They have experts in material science, car design, and actual resources/contracts to actually build one. If it made sense. Sometimes the incumbents are just too entrenched in what they are doing to make what out an outsider sees as an obvious move.

nfw2 4y ago
you read my mind :)
senko 4y ago
One can certainly argue that Tesla is overhyped.
- nfw2 4y ago
  Sure, but no one could argue that Tesla is a Theranos-like operation. Arguments can be made about whether Tesla's valuation is reasonable, but it's certainly a legitimate car manufacturer.
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    What about the times when they announced different types of car models, promised delivery in a year, took pre-orders, and then didn't deliver (and still haven't)? That's pretty Theranos-y behavior.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
      Delays in the car industry are pretty normal and you can get your reservation money back if you cancel.
  - microtherion 4y ago
    Tesla certainly delivers cars. But there are parts of it that are quite Theranesque, especially the self driving: * Re-sell third party products for a while ("Until our own offering is ready"). If the recently posted self parking video is to be believed, the in-house products are still not on par with the third party predecessors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA * Pre-sell your product years before it's ready. * Aggressively suppress internal and external criticism. * Avoid objective evaluations of your product.
    - sidewndr46 4y ago
      You forgot "engage in lots of dubiously legal union busting"
      - vkou 4y ago
        That's pretty normal for all new firms, regardless of whether or not their promises have much to do with their deliveries.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
      Tesla has literally opened up its FSD Beta an allowed people to film it. We have more insight into its behavior in a huge range of different driving conditions then we have for anything else. They have even change the terms&conditions to make it clear that beta testers were allowed to share. Beta testers have shared lots of not-flattering things and Tesla has not 'aggressively suppressed' them. They have asked for the outright fraud and slander campaign conduct by a competitor to be removed. > * Avoid objective evaluations of your product. Like what? Tesla Vision (no radar/no lidar) has just been objectively tested: https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-y-earns-5-star-safety-rating-euro-ncap https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-y-earns-5-star-safety-ratin... There are no objective evaluations for FSD as nobody has actually made general full sell driving work. But you can get the Beta and do any kind of 'objective evaluations' you want. You can even publish all the details, amount of interventions and so on of all your drives.
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    I'd say tesla's "full self driving" and "autopilot" claims are pretty theranos like. There's zero way they don't KNOW internally that asking an inattentive driver to take over with no warning doesn't work, and that they aren't as safe as they are trying to spin.
mrtksn 4y ago
Unpopular opinion but wasn't Tesla subsidised and missed the cost goals anyway? My impression is that Tesla succeeded thanks to Musks personality that made the customers forgive unfulfilled promises that they paid thousands of dollars for. Almost as if Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos imitated Musk instead of Steve Jobs and kicked the can down the road and delivered traditional but improved blood test machines and kept promising stuff down the road by collecting money and be edgy on Twitter, she could have been a hero by now. I mean, Tesla still delivered stuff that people value. Just not the promised ones. Tesla makes the best computerised vehicles out there and has built a valuable charging network, not the stated goals but valuable anyway.
- MichaelCollins 4y ago
  I wish Tesla would cut it out with the computerized car bullshit and focus on making the best battery cars instead. They shouldn't need bullshit like "it will be fiscally irresponsible to not buy our cars because it will be a robotaxi that pays for itself"; it imperils the long-term success of the company for a short-term boost in sales. And it alienates anybody with a modicum of critical thinking.
  - mrtksn 4y ago
    Okay but the genius of Musk was this computerised car stuff and it's exactly where the traditional car manufacturers fail. Just recently the CEO of VW changed and the important part of the failure of the previous CEO was their shit software on their electric cars. It's not like Tesla managed to make cheap electric cars? They managed to make cars with good computers and this is something that people actually want. Essentially, Tesla made the first usable as daily driver electric car by promising stuff that people believed they want(but very hard to make) so they can collect money and make sales but doing stuff that people actually needed(within the reach of the current technology) to live with electric cars.
    - mrguyorama 4y ago
      Actually, I desperately want the software world to stay as far away from cars as possible. Even in a VW, I know I will go 100k miles with zero issues with most of the stuff. Someone somewhere wants to put javascript between me and that, and I hope they have a bad life.
gamblor956 4y ago
The existing automakers are making EVs faster and cheaper than Tesla did, and the EVs they are making have substantially greater build quality than Tesla's vehicles.
- signatoremo 4y ago
  Tesla’s profit margin is higher than most of automakers. So no, EVs made by traditional automakers are not cheaper. If anything that means Tesla’s cars are more desirable because they can command a premium. Faster? What is that supposed to mean? Tesla is the largest EV maker by volume (not sure if I miss any Chinese ones). Substantial better build quality? Define substantial. Who decide that? Certainly not the consumers, because they can’t get enough of Tesla cars.
  - silon42 4y ago
    They can easily make a better interior on usability.
    - ngcc_hk 4y ago
      Or better QC.
  - gamblor956 4y ago
    It's easy to goose profit margins when you don't use automotive grade parts and skip quality control. Consumer Reports stopped recommending Teslas because of the abysmal quality of their vehicles. And every Tesla owner I personally know has said their first Tesla will also be their last.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
      This is just complete nonsense. Go look at the tear-downs of Tesla where actual engineers with automotive analyses each part. The reality is Tesla is ahead in a whole number of areas and have better quality in many areas. Tesla have top ranks in safety, the best most performant interior board computer, their glass roofs are pretty amazing, their internal heating/cooling system is the best in the industry by far. The reliability of their engines and battery packs is actually extremely good. Their structural engineering with their castings is ahead of anybody in the industry. The Model S is literally the fastest production car in the world. They have the largest global fast charging system and the single best integration of cars and charging. If Tesla gets criticized for quality control most of the times its fit and finish something a lot of people don't actually car that much about. The majority of Tesla cars are produced in China and those cars have an excellent reputation for quality. > I personally know has said their first Tesla will also be their last. Tesla has the highest consumer satisfaction ratio and the highest costumer retention ratio in the industry. But I'm sure your personal experience is what is most important in this discussion.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
cycomanic 4y ago
The difference there is that the traditional car manufacturers didn't want to push EVs because that would have canabalized their ICE business and their competitive advantage (electric motors are really easy to build in comparison to an ICE). That's how Tesla could just zoom past them, they did not want EVs to be successful. The situation with supersonic flight is very different, the requirements and skills are very similar the ones of traditional plane manufacturers and supersonic flight wouldn't really canabalize their traditional business. I think they simply see that it doesn't make sense. I mean boom can't really explain what has fundamentally changed since tge concorde that supersonic flight is now economically viable.
Ajedi32 4y ago
Yeah, I hate this kind of weakly justified pessimism. Sure, if you just assume every new idea will fail you'll be right 95% of the time. But if everyone did that we'd be stuck in the dark ages. I applaud people and organizations that take that chance, innovating and trying new things even when there's a high chance of failure. Worst-case, they fail and other people can learn from their mistakes and hopefully do better next time. Best case, they change the world.
- rollinggoron 4y ago
  I wasn't trying to be pessimistic, just trying not the fall for the "too good to be true" hype machine common in tech (e.g. new batteries with 100x the capacity are right around the corner, carbon nanotubes uses, etc...). Is this a new idea, though? It's not like supersonic commercial jets are a new thing and they haven't been built. The economics of building a commercially viable production supersonic plane is much more difficult to do than building a car or writing a new website to disrupt Facebook or Google. I 100% agree that people need to be exploring this stuff. That being said, I'll believe it when I see it.

nfw2 4y ago

you read my mind :)

senko 4y ago

One can certainly argue that Tesla is overhyped.

nfw2 4y ago
Sure, but no one could argue that Tesla is a Theranos-like operation. Arguments can be made about whether Tesla's valuation is reasonable, but it's certainly a legitimate car manufacturer.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  What about the times when they announced different types of car models, promised delivery in a year, took pre-orders, and then didn't deliver (and still haven't)? That's pretty Theranos-y behavior.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    Delays in the car industry are pretty normal and you can get your reservation money back if you cancel.
- microtherion 4y ago
  Tesla certainly delivers cars. But there are parts of it that are quite Theranesque, especially the self driving: * Re-sell third party products for a while ("Until our own offering is ready"). If the recently posted self parking video is to be believed, the in-house products are still not on par with the third party predecessors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA * Pre-sell your product years before it's ready. * Aggressively suppress internal and external criticism. * Avoid objective evaluations of your product.
  - sidewndr46 4y ago
    You forgot "engage in lots of dubiously legal union busting"
    - vkou 4y ago
      That's pretty normal for all new firms, regardless of whether or not their promises have much to do with their deliveries.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    Tesla has literally opened up its FSD Beta an allowed people to film it. We have more insight into its behavior in a huge range of different driving conditions then we have for anything else. They have even change the terms&conditions to make it clear that beta testers were allowed to share. Beta testers have shared lots of not-flattering things and Tesla has not 'aggressively suppressed' them. They have asked for the outright fraud and slander campaign conduct by a competitor to be removed. > * Avoid objective evaluations of your product. Like what? Tesla Vision (no radar/no lidar) has just been objectively tested: https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-y-earns-5-star-safety-rating-euro-ncap https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-y-earns-5-star-safety-ratin... There are no objective evaluations for FSD as nobody has actually made general full sell driving work. But you can get the Beta and do any kind of 'objective evaluations' you want. You can even publish all the details, amount of interventions and so on of all your drives.
- mrguyorama 4y ago
  I'd say tesla's "full self driving" and "autopilot" claims are pretty theranos like. There's zero way they don't KNOW internally that asking an inattentive driver to take over with no warning doesn't work, and that they aren't as safe as they are trying to spin.

mrtksn 4y ago

Unpopular opinion but wasn't Tesla subsidised and missed the cost goals anyway? My impression is that Tesla succeeded thanks to Musks personality that made the customers forgive unfulfilled promises that they paid thousands of dollars for. Almost as if Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos imitated Musk instead of Steve Jobs and kicked the can down the road and delivered traditional but improved blood test machines and kept promising stuff down the road by collecting money and be edgy on Twitter, she could have been a hero by now. I mean, Tesla still delivered stuff that people value. Just not the promised ones. Tesla makes the best computerised vehicles out there and has built a valuable charging network, not the stated goals but valuable anyway.

MichaelCollins 4y ago
I wish Tesla would cut it out with the computerized car bullshit and focus on making the best battery cars instead. They shouldn't need bullshit like "it will be fiscally irresponsible to not buy our cars because it will be a robotaxi that pays for itself"; it imperils the long-term success of the company for a short-term boost in sales. And it alienates anybody with a modicum of critical thinking.
- mrtksn 4y ago
  Okay but the genius of Musk was this computerised car stuff and it's exactly where the traditional car manufacturers fail. Just recently the CEO of VW changed and the important part of the failure of the previous CEO was their shit software on their electric cars. It's not like Tesla managed to make cheap electric cars? They managed to make cars with good computers and this is something that people actually want. Essentially, Tesla made the first usable as daily driver electric car by promising stuff that people believed they want(but very hard to make) so they can collect money and make sales but doing stuff that people actually needed(within the reach of the current technology) to live with electric cars.
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    Actually, I desperately want the software world to stay as far away from cars as possible. Even in a VW, I know I will go 100k miles with zero issues with most of the stuff. Someone somewhere wants to put javascript between me and that, and I hope they have a bad life.

gamblor956 4y ago

The existing automakers are making EVs faster and cheaper than Tesla did, and the EVs they are making have substantially greater build quality than Tesla's vehicles.

signatoremo 4y ago
Tesla’s profit margin is higher than most of automakers. So no, EVs made by traditional automakers are not cheaper. If anything that means Tesla’s cars are more desirable because they can command a premium. Faster? What is that supposed to mean? Tesla is the largest EV maker by volume (not sure if I miss any Chinese ones). Substantial better build quality? Define substantial. Who decide that? Certainly not the consumers, because they can’t get enough of Tesla cars.
- silon42 4y ago
  They can easily make a better interior on usability.
  - ngcc_hk 4y ago
    Or better QC.
- gamblor956 4y ago
  It's easy to goose profit margins when you don't use automotive grade parts and skip quality control. Consumer Reports stopped recommending Teslas because of the abysmal quality of their vehicles. And every Tesla owner I personally know has said their first Tesla will also be their last.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    This is just complete nonsense. Go look at the tear-downs of Tesla where actual engineers with automotive analyses each part. The reality is Tesla is ahead in a whole number of areas and have better quality in many areas. Tesla have top ranks in safety, the best most performant interior board computer, their glass roofs are pretty amazing, their internal heating/cooling system is the best in the industry by far. The reliability of their engines and battery packs is actually extremely good. Their structural engineering with their castings is ahead of anybody in the industry. The Model S is literally the fastest production car in the world. They have the largest global fast charging system and the single best integration of cars and charging. If Tesla gets criticized for quality control most of the times its fit and finish something a lot of people don't actually car that much about. The majority of Tesla cars are produced in China and those cars have an excellent reputation for quality. > I personally know has said their first Tesla will also be their last. Tesla has the highest consumer satisfaction ratio and the highest costumer retention ratio in the industry. But I'm sure your personal experience is what is most important in this discussion.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

cycomanic 4y ago

The difference there is that the traditional car manufacturers didn't want to push EVs because that would have canabalized their ICE business and their competitive advantage (electric motors are really easy to build in comparison to an ICE). That's how Tesla could just zoom past them, they did not want EVs to be successful. The situation with supersonic flight is very different, the requirements and skills are very similar the ones of traditional plane manufacturers and supersonic flight wouldn't really canabalize their traditional business. I think they simply see that it doesn't make sense. I mean boom can't really explain what has fundamentally changed since tge concorde that supersonic flight is now economically viable.

Ajedi32 4y ago

Yeah, I hate this kind of weakly justified pessimism. Sure, if you just assume every new idea will fail you'll be right 95% of the time. But if everyone did that we'd be stuck in the dark ages. I applaud people and organizations that take that chance, innovating and trying new things even when there's a high chance of failure. Worst-case, they fail and other people can learn from their mistakes and hopefully do better next time. Best case, they change the world.

rollinggoron 4y ago
I wasn't trying to be pessimistic, just trying not the fall for the "too good to be true" hype machine common in tech (e.g. new batteries with 100x the capacity are right around the corner, carbon nanotubes uses, etc...). Is this a new idea, though? It's not like supersonic commercial jets are a new thing and they haven't been built. The economics of building a commercially viable production supersonic plane is much more difficult to do than building a car or writing a new website to disrupt Facebook or Google. I 100% agree that people need to be exploring this stuff. That being said, I'll believe it when I see it.