6 ms·

I would not be so worried. While the situation is not so rosy, Nordstream's closing will be compensated by using less energy generally (e.g. not heating up gov

by sydd 4y ago

I would not be so worried. While the situation is not so rosy, Nordstream's closing will be compensated by using less energy generally (e.g. not heating up gov buildings, lots of people working from home etc.) and from dozens of other sources (importing more LNG, letting nuclear plants run more, firing up coal powered plants etc) Russians are very good as sowing discord and creating panic among the population, but if you look at the facts things are not so bleak. - If closing down Nordstream would really lead to the collapse of the German economy then the EU would have lifted the sanctions. While they can accept some hardships to beat Russia, they would not kill their economy to do so. - Just look at the gas futures price in the EU: https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5429405&span=1 https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futur... Since the full closure of Nordstream gas prices have actually gone down showing that the gas market has already priced the closure, and as time will pass it will go down even more (since people will see that we have enough gas & Putin's threats are taken less and less seriously mostly because he has run out of things to threaten with) So dont panic and trust Western leaders a bit more.

neural_thing 4y ago
Another interpretation is that the futures are pricing in price controls.
triyambakam 4y ago
jemmyw 4y ago
Thanks, that's a much calmer balanced view. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce5TR-qWCk4&t=3574s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce5TR-qWCk4&t=3574s this vid has a great and lengthy analysis on the economic situation in Europe. Basically, Europe and Germany will be fine because they can afford the burden for awhile and may even still grow economically. Russia has stabilised their economy for the moment with drastic intervention, but they are time limited.
- gremlinsinc 4y ago
  Russia is as toxic as you can possibly get, they have a 'brain drought' of talent that has exited the country either in protest or in fear or retaliation for sympathizing with Ukraine. Russia's losing the war because they always value loyalty over skill, strategy -- those with skill usually end up appearing to be a threat so end up dead, or get canned if they're lucky - militarily speaking. In the business/tech centers, there practically IS no business/tech centers, with all this moving out of Russia into the western nations and baltic states -- there will be huge growth after the war is over in most EU countries that aren't Russia or Belarus. Short term, I think it will be a struggle, long term I think weaker Russia is good for the whole world, I'm hoping china begins to decline too - esp with the real estate crash they have looming, if they lose their ass on foreign real estate our housing prices might go to some semblance of normalcy. Here in Utah, the average home price went from 200k 10 years ago to 600k now, only way I'll ever own a home is if I buy land and build a $10k earthbag home lol.
  - jemmyw 4y ago
    If the war is over next year (I'm not optimistic, but fingers crossed) and Ukraine prevails, which seems to be a certainty, then the US and EU will plough money into Ukraine's recovery. They'll want an institutionally stronger country there regardless of the diplomatic solutions found to the war/borders etc. That will be a shot in the arm to the eastern EU economy and probably quite positive to the world as a whole. Yeah I agree that the future looks bleak for Russia, actually regardless of how well they fight. They lost, long term, when they didn't take Ukraine in 3 days. They showed a weak hand and I suspect even their ally China will treat them as a second partner and with some contempt. Perhaps the best outcome would be the Russian government falling again and this time western powers actually helping out, but I doubt they'll collapse in a way that lets that happen, or that society there will accept help, or that western countries would be interested in helping anyway. China will decline, they're not in a great place demographically. And this is my personal opinion: China had the opportunity to become great, with just a little more freedom they could have leveraged their hi-tech manufacturing base and encouraged innovation. But instead the leadership got scared that they were losing power and sent thing in the wrong direction. It's not that they aren't innovative, it's just that has been tempered enough that they won't take the lead and all the other issues - demographic, geographic etc will take them downhill. Which is a shame because instead of a (slightly) freer world we get nationalism and unpredictability; who knows now what they'll do if they can't deliver on better living standards and an ever improving economy? Invading Taiwan would be stupid from many perspectives, but as a way to drum up and hold support of the population maybe it works?
mattnewport 4y ago
> and trust Western leaders a bit more. What have Western leaders done in the last 20+ years to earn such trust?
- k__ 4y ago
  Being sustainably successful for hundreds of years? I mean, China is the only successful country that isn't western, not even in spirit (like India, Japan, or Korea) and their run seems coming to an end lately, with all their debtors defaulting.
  - mind_heist 4y ago
    I m not sure if this is fully accurate though, especially about Japan and South Korea part. Both of them have demonstrated solid economic prowess in the last few decades & if you ignore a few decades of colonial interlude and look back further - they still have had sound economies in previous centuries. I think Singapore , Taiwan and even may be UAE are missing from this list ( depending on how much further back in history you are looking at).
    - woobar 4y ago
      I think GP meant that unlike China these countries are "part of the West" now, not that they are unsuccessful.
      - k__ 4y ago
        Yes. They are successful and follow the "western spirit" more than the rest of Asian countries.
  - benwad 4y ago
    Causing two global conflicts isn't what I'd call 'sustainably successful'. Since those, I'd agree with you, but definitely not hundreds of years.
    - 4y ago
k__ 4y ago
This. If Germany loves one thing, it's being richer than the rest of Europe. They just throwing their weight around.
yread 4y ago
Another reason not to panic is that the Dutch have a massive gas field and choose to use it only 10% (2.7B m3/year out of 25B m3/year, about 60% of their consumption). Surely, if the situation was dire they would max out their wells first, (they say it would produce small earthquakes and 15000 houses would be in danger but that's a small price to pay)
- mind_heist 4y ago
  and looks like coal seems to be the first choice for now ? imported from australia and south africa ? https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-imports-more-south-african-coal-russian-ban-looms-2022-06-15/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-imports-m... https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2349110-australia-leads-netherlands-coal-imports https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2349110-australia-leads-n...
  - sydd 4y ago
    Australia is happily selling any amount of coal to the EU because they are in a trade war with the Chinese who refuse to buy their coal.
origin_path 4y ago
"So dont panic and trust Western leaders a bit more." It's the western leaders who are keeping both Nord Stream 2 and 1 closed: NS2 because Germany won't license it, and NS1 by sanctioning Russia so they can't work with the companies that repair the broken components. In fact there are at least 5 gas pipelines into various parts of Europe which are all closed by the west or western actions: https://swprs.org/is-russia-limiting-gas-flows-to-europe/ https://swprs.org/is-russia-limiting-gas-flows-to-europe/
- hackeraccount 4y ago
  This is a political not a technical issue. Russia and the EU are figuring out what their relationship is with regard to energy supplies and if we will say The Ukraine or Ukraine in 10 years.
  - origin_path 4y ago
    It's both - there are compressors sitting in the UK that are blocked from being returned to NS1 because of British sanctions. The pipeline needs compressors (technical) but can't get them because they're repaired in foreign countries (political). The stupid thing is, somehow these facts seem to have got lost somewhere along the line and the European countries are convinced this is 4D chess by Russia instead of the exact outcome sanctions were intended to create.
- sydd 4y ago
  > NS1 by sanctioning Russia so they can't work with the companies that repair the broken components. Not true. While Canada who repaired the turbine first refused to give it back to Russia now they are willing because of German pressure. Siemens (the operator of the turbines) has stated multiple times that there is no technical issue in running NS1. Russia is not supplying gas trough NS1 because of political reasons: - Russia's main goal is to make the EU stop supporting Ukraine, thus they can make a favorable peace agreement. Their main goal is to get the EU states oppose the war. - They are doing this by trying to sow panic and chaos in the EU by turning NS1 lower and lower (now its off) and other things like releasing ridiculous videos like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcbcBrL4ju4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcbcBrL4ju4 - This panic also results in high gas prices which is harmful to EU's economy and good for Russia's pockets. The west should not bow to Putin's will, if it would lift the sanctions Putin would use gas as a weapon against the EU whenever he wants; the only good choice is to get rid of any Russian dependency. Trust the western leaders, they did the math. The EU will have enough energy for the winter. Also USA is bringing out the big economical guns too, they started to lower the price of oil which will result in crushing Russia's #1 income source (they can produce oil for around $50) and this will also bring down energy prices. This and the next winter will be still hard for the EU, but after that things will stabilize. But seriously what did you expect, how could a Russia, a country with a total GDP around Italy beat the EU, Japan, USA, Australia, South Korea in an economic war?
blub 4y ago
There are many unpleasant steps to go until reaching the collapse of the German economy and while the EU has certainly overplayed its hand, giving up too early is (geo)political suicide. Outcomes that are likely this winter are blackouts, bankruptcies for businesses and for individuals financial ruin and losing one's savings. The question is to what extent those will happen and which percentage of the population will be affected.

by sydd 4y ago

neural_thing 4y ago

Another interpretation is that the futures are pricing in price controls.

triyambakam 4y ago

jemmyw 4y ago

Thanks, that's a much calmer balanced view. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce5TR-qWCk4&t=3574s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce5TR-qWCk4&t=3574s this vid has a great and lengthy analysis on the economic situation in Europe. Basically, Europe and Germany will be fine because they can afford the burden for awhile and may even still grow economically. Russia has stabilised their economy for the moment with drastic intervention, but they are time limited.

gremlinsinc 4y ago
Russia is as toxic as you can possibly get, they have a 'brain drought' of talent that has exited the country either in protest or in fear or retaliation for sympathizing with Ukraine. Russia's losing the war because they always value loyalty over skill, strategy -- those with skill usually end up appearing to be a threat so end up dead, or get canned if they're lucky - militarily speaking. In the business/tech centers, there practically IS no business/tech centers, with all this moving out of Russia into the western nations and baltic states -- there will be huge growth after the war is over in most EU countries that aren't Russia or Belarus. Short term, I think it will be a struggle, long term I think weaker Russia is good for the whole world, I'm hoping china begins to decline too - esp with the real estate crash they have looming, if they lose their ass on foreign real estate our housing prices might go to some semblance of normalcy. Here in Utah, the average home price went from 200k 10 years ago to 600k now, only way I'll ever own a home is if I buy land and build a $10k earthbag home lol.
- jemmyw 4y ago
  If the war is over next year (I'm not optimistic, but fingers crossed) and Ukraine prevails, which seems to be a certainty, then the US and EU will plough money into Ukraine's recovery. They'll want an institutionally stronger country there regardless of the diplomatic solutions found to the war/borders etc. That will be a shot in the arm to the eastern EU economy and probably quite positive to the world as a whole. Yeah I agree that the future looks bleak for Russia, actually regardless of how well they fight. They lost, long term, when they didn't take Ukraine in 3 days. They showed a weak hand and I suspect even their ally China will treat them as a second partner and with some contempt. Perhaps the best outcome would be the Russian government falling again and this time western powers actually helping out, but I doubt they'll collapse in a way that lets that happen, or that society there will accept help, or that western countries would be interested in helping anyway. China will decline, they're not in a great place demographically. And this is my personal opinion: China had the opportunity to become great, with just a little more freedom they could have leveraged their hi-tech manufacturing base and encouraged innovation. But instead the leadership got scared that they were losing power and sent thing in the wrong direction. It's not that they aren't innovative, it's just that has been tempered enough that they won't take the lead and all the other issues - demographic, geographic etc will take them downhill. Which is a shame because instead of a (slightly) freer world we get nationalism and unpredictability; who knows now what they'll do if they can't deliver on better living standards and an ever improving economy? Invading Taiwan would be stupid from many perspectives, but as a way to drum up and hold support of the population maybe it works?

mattnewport 4y ago

> and trust Western leaders a bit more. What have Western leaders done in the last 20+ years to earn such trust?

k__ 4y ago
Being sustainably successful for hundreds of years? I mean, China is the only successful country that isn't western, not even in spirit (like India, Japan, or Korea) and their run seems coming to an end lately, with all their debtors defaulting.
- mind_heist 4y ago
  I m not sure if this is fully accurate though, especially about Japan and South Korea part. Both of them have demonstrated solid economic prowess in the last few decades & if you ignore a few decades of colonial interlude and look back further - they still have had sound economies in previous centuries. I think Singapore , Taiwan and even may be UAE are missing from this list ( depending on how much further back in history you are looking at).
  - woobar 4y ago
    I think GP meant that unlike China these countries are "part of the West" now, not that they are unsuccessful.
    - k__ 4y ago
      Yes. They are successful and follow the "western spirit" more than the rest of Asian countries.
- benwad 4y ago
  Causing two global conflicts isn't what I'd call 'sustainably successful'. Since those, I'd agree with you, but definitely not hundreds of years.
  - 4y ago

k__ 4y ago

This. If Germany loves one thing, it's being richer than the rest of Europe. They just throwing their weight around.

yread 4y ago

Another reason not to panic is that the Dutch have a massive gas field and choose to use it only 10% (2.7B m3/year out of 25B m3/year, about 60% of their consumption). Surely, if the situation was dire they would max out their wells first, (they say it would produce small earthquakes and 15000 houses would be in danger but that's a small price to pay)

mind_heist 4y ago
and looks like coal seems to be the first choice for now ? imported from australia and south africa ? https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-imports-more-south-african-coal-russian-ban-looms-2022-06-15/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-imports-m... https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2349110-australia-leads-netherlands-coal-imports https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2349110-australia-leads-n...
- sydd 4y ago
  Australia is happily selling any amount of coal to the EU because they are in a trade war with the Chinese who refuse to buy their coal.

origin_path 4y ago

"So dont panic and trust Western leaders a bit more." It's the western leaders who are keeping both Nord Stream 2 and 1 closed: NS2 because Germany won't license it, and NS1 by sanctioning Russia so they can't work with the companies that repair the broken components. In fact there are at least 5 gas pipelines into various parts of Europe which are all closed by the west or western actions: https://swprs.org/is-russia-limiting-gas-flows-to-europe/ https://swprs.org/is-russia-limiting-gas-flows-to-europe/

hackeraccount 4y ago
This is a political not a technical issue. Russia and the EU are figuring out what their relationship is with regard to energy supplies and if we will say The Ukraine or Ukraine in 10 years.
- origin_path 4y ago
  It's both - there are compressors sitting in the UK that are blocked from being returned to NS1 because of British sanctions. The pipeline needs compressors (technical) but can't get them because they're repaired in foreign countries (political). The stupid thing is, somehow these facts seem to have got lost somewhere along the line and the European countries are convinced this is 4D chess by Russia instead of the exact outcome sanctions were intended to create.
sydd 4y ago
> NS1 by sanctioning Russia so they can't work with the companies that repair the broken components. Not true. While Canada who repaired the turbine first refused to give it back to Russia now they are willing because of German pressure. Siemens (the operator of the turbines) has stated multiple times that there is no technical issue in running NS1. Russia is not supplying gas trough NS1 because of political reasons: - Russia's main goal is to make the EU stop supporting Ukraine, thus they can make a favorable peace agreement. Their main goal is to get the EU states oppose the war. - They are doing this by trying to sow panic and chaos in the EU by turning NS1 lower and lower (now its off) and other things like releasing ridiculous videos like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcbcBrL4ju4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcbcBrL4ju4 - This panic also results in high gas prices which is harmful to EU's economy and good for Russia's pockets. The west should not bow to Putin's will, if it would lift the sanctions Putin would use gas as a weapon against the EU whenever he wants; the only good choice is to get rid of any Russian dependency. Trust the western leaders, they did the math. The EU will have enough energy for the winter. Also USA is bringing out the big economical guns too, they started to lower the price of oil which will result in crushing Russia's #1 income source (they can produce oil for around $50) and this will also bring down energy prices. This and the next winter will be still hard for the EU, but after that things will stabilize. But seriously what did you expect, how could a Russia, a country with a total GDP around Italy beat the EU, Japan, USA, Australia, South Korea in an economic war?

blub 4y ago

There are many unpleasant steps to go until reaching the collapse of the German economy and while the EU has certainly overplayed its hand, giving up too early is (geo)political suicide. Outcomes that are likely this winter are blackouts, bankruptcies for businesses and for individuals financial ruin and losing one's savings. The question is to what extent those will happen and which percentage of the population will be affected.