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Hyperbole in the article discredits the conversation about global warming. The entire glacier melting isn't something that's going to happen in the reasonably

Hyperbole in the article discredits the conversation about global warming. The entire glacier melting isn't something that's going to happen in the reasonably near future, so the notion of 3-10 foot sea level rise is irrelevant. ...and sadly they don't publish actual expected sea rise numbers from actual expected melt amounts.

Arnt 4y ago
Not going to happen in the reasonably near future? How do you know? The particular thing about Thwaites is that instead of melting along one narrow edge (a wide, but not tall area) as it has until recently, it might shift to melt from a very much larger area. The article says the observed rate of melting has doubled, due to unknown mechanisms. The article does not say that the increase has stopped or that the doubled rate is the final melting rate, or even speculate that it's likely to be the case.
- koheripbal 4y ago
  Because according to the related articles, that multi-foot rise in sea levels depends on the melting of the large portion of the glacier that is on land. The point is that they don't publish ANY numbers that aren't at the extreme end of what's possible.
  - Arnt 4y ago
    "We measured twice the forecast speed" implies that the previous forecast wasn't close to the extreme end, so it's not true that they only ever publish extreme numbers. I wonder what the extreme end actually is. The glacier (the part on land) is sliding down into the sea at a speed of half a centimeter per minute now, and the main factor holding the speed down is disappearing. How fast can ice slide?
pier25 4y ago
3-10 feet rising isn't irrelevant just because you won't see it happening. Also, the article is about the doubling of the retreating rate vs the previous decade as published on this paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01019-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01019-9 > Thwaites grounding zone retreated at a rate of >2.1 km per year—twice the rate observed by satellite at the fastest retreating part of the grounding zone between 2011 and 2019
- koheripbal 4y ago
  Again, 3-10 feet rising is NOT expected - that just represents the TOTAL ice melt of the entire glacier, including it's base. That is not a realistic outcome.

Arnt 4y ago

Not going to happen in the reasonably near future? How do you know? The particular thing about Thwaites is that instead of melting along one narrow edge (a wide, but not tall area) as it has until recently, it might shift to melt from a very much larger area. The article says the observed rate of melting has doubled, due to unknown mechanisms. The article does not say that the increase has stopped or that the doubled rate is the final melting rate, or even speculate that it's likely to be the case.

koheripbal 4y ago
Because according to the related articles, that multi-foot rise in sea levels depends on the melting of the large portion of the glacier that is on land. The point is that they don't publish ANY numbers that aren't at the extreme end of what's possible.
- Arnt 4y ago
  "We measured twice the forecast speed" implies that the previous forecast wasn't close to the extreme end, so it's not true that they only ever publish extreme numbers. I wonder what the extreme end actually is. The glacier (the part on land) is sliding down into the sea at a speed of half a centimeter per minute now, and the main factor holding the speed down is disappearing. How fast can ice slide?

pier25 4y ago

3-10 feet rising isn't irrelevant just because you won't see it happening. Also, the article is about the doubling of the retreating rate vs the previous decade as published on this paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01019-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01019-9 > Thwaites grounding zone retreated at a rate of >2.1 km per year—twice the rate observed by satellite at the fastest retreating part of the grounding zone between 2011 and 2019

koheripbal 4y ago
Again, 3-10 feet rising is NOT expected - that just represents the TOTAL ice melt of the entire glacier, including it's base. That is not a realistic outcome.