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Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab (eg outside Wuhan) would disprove lab leak Finding the animal reservoir, would disprove it was modified in the lab. I g

Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab (eg outside Wuhan) would disprove lab leak Finding the animal reservoir, would disprove it was modified in the lab. I guess it would also lower the chance of a lab leak (though I could still be natural) China allowing a proper investigation would reduce the odds (though how to prove they haven't tampered with evidence in the years since) I think every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds of an unnatural one

igouy 4y ago
? "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a zoonotic virus—one that spilled over from another species to infect and transmit among humans. … Sequencing has subsequently shown that mink-to-human transmission also occurred." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5901 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5901
- haihaibye 4y ago
  Sorry, to clarify - I mean the original animal reservoir and original zoonotic event
  - igouy 4y ago
    Thanks, I'd started to suspect that was your meaning.
igouy 4y ago
>… outside of the lab would disprove lab leak Might someone still claim — transferred without infection beyond the lab? Given the available evidence how would "Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab" be done? > Finding the animal reservoir… In bats? In intermediary animals? Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 > … how to prove they haven't tampered… So even "a proper investigation" will be insufficient. > … every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds… Hardly. Let's make a wild ass guess that vastly more resources are being focused on the next Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL game, than on finding "the natural source". What if "the natural source" was destroyed as part of the tear-down of that particular live animal trade?
- haihaibye 4y ago
  China has vast resources and every reason to try and track down the natural source. But yes, you're right, it's possible we can never know. And thus we should act upon the probability distribution of the cause behind millions of deaths, and try and improve the safety of both wet markets and labs.
  - igouy 4y ago
    Yes but — "China just doesn’t want to look bad. They need to maintain an image of control and competence." 18 Aug 2022 https://www.science.org/content/article/pandemic-start-anywhere-but-here-argue-papers-chinese-scientists-echoing-party-line https://www.science.org/content/article/pandemic-start-anywh...

igouy 4y ago

? "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a zoonotic virus—one that spilled over from another species to infect and transmit among humans. … Sequencing has subsequently shown that mink-to-human transmission also occurred." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5901 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe5901

haihaibye 4y ago
Sorry, to clarify - I mean the original animal reservoir and original zoonotic event
- igouy 4y ago
  Thanks, I'd started to suspect that was your meaning.

igouy 4y ago

>… outside of the lab would disprove lab leak Might someone still claim — transferred without infection beyond the lab? Given the available evidence how would "Confirming zooinosis outside of the lab" be done? > Finding the animal reservoir… In bats? In intermediary animals? Apparently "No reports are known to be available for SARS-CoV-2 test results from these mammals at the Huanan market" and "we do not have access to any live animal samples from relevant species" and "The animals on these farms (nearly 1 million) were rapidly released, sold, or killed in early 2020 … apparently without testing for SARS-CoV-2 … Live animals sold at the market … were apparently not sampled either." https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8715 > … how to prove they haven't tampered… So even "a proper investigation" will be insufficient. > … every day the natural source isn't found should increase the odds… Hardly. Let's make a wild ass guess that vastly more resources are being focused on the next Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL game, than on finding "the natural source". What if "the natural source" was destroyed as part of the tear-down of that particular live animal trade?

haihaibye 4y ago
China has vast resources and every reason to try and track down the natural source. But yes, you're right, it's possible we can never know. And thus we should act upon the probability distribution of the cause behind millions of deaths, and try and improve the safety of both wet markets and labs.
- igouy 4y ago
  Yes but — "China just doesn’t want to look bad. They need to maintain an image of control and competence." 18 Aug 2022 https://www.science.org/content/article/pandemic-start-anywhere-but-here-argue-papers-chinese-scientists-echoing-party-line https://www.science.org/content/article/pandemic-start-anywh...