Say we are weighing the probability of the lab leak hypothesis being correct. Incoming evidence suggests a lab leak is hurtful to a wider array of institutions

Say we are weighing the probability of the lab leak hypothesis being correct. Incoming evidence suggests a lab leak is hurtful to a wider array of institutions and individuals than assumed originally. We use this new evidence, along with previous beliefs on how likely lab leak would be in the first place based on priors like biosafety violation and spillover history and statements made by the above-mentioned individuals and institutions (considered authoritative, but now found possibly in conflict of interest), to form a new belief which we then use as a new prior when assessing how likely it is that the lab leak hypothesis is correct. End result: lab leak hypothesis being correct is assigned a lower prior likelihood and will require stronger evidence. Do we disagree on substance?