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This is indeed crucial and when I first researched this after the invasion started, I arrived at Russia reacting. I can however no longer tell how I arrived at

This is indeed crucial and when I first researched this after the invasion started, I arrived at Russia reacting. I can however no longer tell how I arrived at this conclusion. If I find some time, I will look into this again, as it is pretty important for my understanding and explanation of the conflict. Ad hoc I am not sure if this would completely break my point of view.

AnimalMuppet 4y ago
Wow. Sincere, major props for considering that you could be wrong, on an issue that you clearly have strong opinions on.
- danbruc 4y ago
  Well, I am only interested in understanding the world, I don't care who is the good and who is the bad guy. And if I am wrong, I want to know it.
aidenn0 4y ago
Let me know if you find something definitive. Figuring out this timeline shouldn't be as hard as it has been for me when you mentioned something contrary to my recollection...
- danbruc 4y ago
  You are of course correct that Ukraine officially gave up the non-alignment in late December 2014. What I have to check is whether in late 2013 or early 2014 there were any indications that Ukraine might reverse course.
  - aidenn0 4y ago
    The Maidan revolution was certainly one such sign; it was about joining the EU, not NATO, but the two are somewhat correlated.
    - danbruc 4y ago
      Sure but I do not think that I would have seen Maidan in general as something that warranted more or less immediate action from Russia. Either I really got this wrong or I must have come across something more relevant. I think it is fair to assume that in general the USA prefers Ukraine in NATO over a neutral Ukraine and that over one oriented towards Russia. In NATO there are at least some countries that preferred Ukraine remaining neutral. Even if everyone always says that it is a sovereign decision that does not preclude them from at least having preferences. But there is at least some evidence for outside influence to push Ukraine into a certain direction which goes beyond just having a preference. I did a bit of reading yesterday but I have not yet found anything I consider strong enough to support my Russia reacted point of view. At least at this specific point in time, in general I still have no reason to doubt that a NATO membership was the desired outcome. So currently I really tend towards I got this wrong and I am mostly held back only because I looked into all this in quite some detail after the invasion started and that seems like a mistake I should not have made.
ghostwriter 4y ago
The post you responded to omits a few important segments that are crucial for understaning actions and reactions. Let's start with: - 1990 - 2000: whether Ukraine had a sovereign right to join military blocs in the first place and how Zelensky's rhetoric on the matter contributed to Moscow's decision making. My past comments regarding the issue: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32299159 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32299159 - 2011-2014: pre-cursory events to the successful armed coup against the legitimate sitting president in early 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31763329 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31763329 - late 2013 - early 2014: U.S. officals' unofficial position that they themselves summarized as "Fuck the EU". Media coverage: https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-diplomat-victoria-nuland-phonecall-leaked-video https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-di... and the full version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YctPO-k7ZlM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YctPO-k7ZlM - ~8 years of what could be best characterised as a civil war between two sides of the same country backed by two different world powers. A period of forming of Azov Battalion out of nationalistic elements of the divided society (long twitter thread): https://twitter.com/camaradabruno/status/1499781846682505220 https://twitter.com/camaradabruno/status/1499781846682505220 - 2021: UK's making a show of support for Ukraine in Black Sea near Crimea: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident - June 2021: Boris Johnson says HMS Defender’s deployment ‘wholly appropriate’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFWM7s2I52g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFWM7s2I52g - Late November 2021: red lines are officially outlined, Crimea status is non-negotiable: https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-will-act-if-nato-crosses-its-red-lines-ukraine-2021-11-30/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-wi... - December 2021 Putin asks (demands) for concrete legal guarantees that would allow to prevent a conflict from escalating into a hot phase: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-... - Early 2022: “Do you realize that if Ukraine joins NATO and decides to take Crimea back through military means, the European countries will automatically get drawn into a military conflict with Russia?” Putin said. “Of course, NATO’s united potential and that of Russia are incomparable.”: https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/putin-says-ukraine-membership-in-nato-would-make-nuclear-war-more-likely/ https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/putin-says-ukraine-membershi...

AnimalMuppet 4y ago

Wow. Sincere, major props for considering that you could be wrong, on an issue that you clearly have strong opinions on.

danbruc 4y ago
Well, I am only interested in understanding the world, I don't care who is the good and who is the bad guy. And if I am wrong, I want to know it.

aidenn0 4y ago

Let me know if you find something definitive. Figuring out this timeline shouldn't be as hard as it has been for me when you mentioned something contrary to my recollection...

danbruc 4y ago
You are of course correct that Ukraine officially gave up the non-alignment in late December 2014. What I have to check is whether in late 2013 or early 2014 there were any indications that Ukraine might reverse course.
- aidenn0 4y ago
  The Maidan revolution was certainly one such sign; it was about joining the EU, not NATO, but the two are somewhat correlated.
  - danbruc 4y ago
    Sure but I do not think that I would have seen Maidan in general as something that warranted more or less immediate action from Russia. Either I really got this wrong or I must have come across something more relevant. I think it is fair to assume that in general the USA prefers Ukraine in NATO over a neutral Ukraine and that over one oriented towards Russia. In NATO there are at least some countries that preferred Ukraine remaining neutral. Even if everyone always says that it is a sovereign decision that does not preclude them from at least having preferences. But there is at least some evidence for outside influence to push Ukraine into a certain direction which goes beyond just having a preference. I did a bit of reading yesterday but I have not yet found anything I consider strong enough to support my Russia reacted point of view. At least at this specific point in time, in general I still have no reason to doubt that a NATO membership was the desired outcome. So currently I really tend towards I got this wrong and I am mostly held back only because I looked into all this in quite some detail after the invasion started and that seems like a mistake I should not have made.

ghostwriter 4y ago

The post you responded to omits a few important segments that are crucial for understaning actions and reactions. Let's start with: - 1990 - 2000: whether Ukraine had a sovereign right to join military blocs in the first place and how Zelensky's rhetoric on the matter contributed to Moscow's decision making. My past comments regarding the issue: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32299159 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32299159 - 2011-2014: pre-cursory events to the successful armed coup against the legitimate sitting president in early 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31763329 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31763329 - late 2013 - early 2014: U.S. officals' unofficial position that they themselves summarized as "Fuck the EU". Media coverage: https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-diplomat-victoria-nuland-phonecall-leaked-video https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-di... and the full version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YctPO-k7ZlM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YctPO-k7ZlM - ~8 years of what could be best characterised as a civil war between two sides of the same country backed by two different world powers. A period of forming of Azov Battalion out of nationalistic elements of the divided society (long twitter thread): https://twitter.com/camaradabruno/status/1499781846682505220 https://twitter.com/camaradabruno/status/1499781846682505220 - 2021: UK's making a show of support for Ukraine in Black Sea near Crimea: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident - June 2021: Boris Johnson says HMS Defender’s deployment ‘wholly appropriate’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFWM7s2I52g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFWM7s2I52g - Late November 2021: red lines are officially outlined, Crimea status is non-negotiable: https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-will-act-if-nato-crosses-its-red-lines-ukraine-2021-11-30/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-wi... - December 2021 Putin asks (demands) for concrete legal guarantees that would allow to prevent a conflict from escalating into a hot phase: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-... - Early 2022: “Do you realize that if Ukraine joins NATO and decides to take Crimea back through military means, the European countries will automatically get drawn into a military conflict with Russia?” Putin said. “Of course, NATO’s united potential and that of Russia are incomparable.”: https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/putin-says-ukraine-membership-in-nato-would-make-nuclear-war-more-likely/ https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/putin-says-ukraine-membershi...