> electricity sources for heating Weird question. You're looking for "carbon intensity", the CO2 emitted per kWh: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1133295/

> electricity sources for heating Weird question. You're looking for "carbon intensity", the CO2 emitted per kWh: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1133295/electric-sector-carbon-dioxide-emission-rate-by-state-united-states/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1133295/electric-sector-... > percentage of emissions coming from home heating via natural gas vs coal-originating electric heaters Surely you mean relative emissions, not percent. Natural gas creates 53 kg of CO2 per mmBTU. A good heat pump (for instance: https://www.fujitsu-general.com/us/products/vrf/j4/aou60rlavm4.html https://www.fujitsu-general.com/us/products/vrf/j4/aou60rlav...) has a COP of 3.6+, meaning 3.6 kWh of heat per kWh of electricity. Alternately, 81.4+ kWh per mmBTU. Any state with a carbon intensity below 1,435 lbs CO2 per MWh will emit less CO2 using a heat pump rather than natural gas. Six states have higher carbon intensities: Utah, Indiana, Missouri, Wyoming, Kentucky and West Virginia. In the state with the lowest carbon intensity, Washington, 1 mmBTU of natural gas will emit 7.21x as much CO2 as 1 mmBTU from a heat pump. > efficiency of progress over the years, expected trajectory Heat pumps are already half the price of gas heating, per BTU. The carbon intensity in those 6 states will rapidly decrease as natural gas outcompetes coal. In 5 years it's likely every state will have <1435 carbon intensity.