4 ms·

Hot take, there is no next big thing in personal computing. A hundred years from now people will still be using little rectangular screens in their pockets lik

Hot take, there is no next big thing in personal computing. A hundred years from now people will still be using little rectangular screens in their pockets like we do today. Their batteries may last a lot longer or maybe they will be as thin as paper but they will still be recognizable to us as smartphones. The laptop and desktop PC form factors will also persist.

blairbeckwith 4y ago
This feels right to me on the hardware front, especially about laptops and desktops. Their basic form hasn't even remotely changed over the past 30 years. There have been improvements – smaller, lighter, more powerful. There have been tweaks – convertible laptops, for example, but those haven't really stuck nor displaced the standard laptop. We are approximately, what, 40 years since the first thing that resembles a modern laptop, and it's fundamentally the same form factor. Even phones have grown in capabilities much more than they have changed in form factors. I wish we were closer to the 'next big thing', but I'd put bets on things staying largely the same. VR/AR, either via a headset, glasses, or contacts seem like the safest bet, but in no way a given.
j0hnyl 4y ago
I actually disagree. I think in 100 years we will have at least a prototype for a WIRELESS brain computer interface. The form factor like the laptop and mobile phone are super limiting. The "internet" will come out of these devices into the real world. I also think that VR headsets will go the way of the MiniDisc, hot for a brief period of time, but defunct before they have a chance to take off because they will be obsolete.
- wilsonnb3 4y ago
  > I actually disagree. I think in 100 years we will have at least a prototype for a WIRELESS brain computer interface. Even if we integrate the internet directly into our heads via wireless brain-computer interface, I don't see that as revolutionary compared to what we have now. Now that we have computers small enough to be on our person at all times and wireless bandwidth fast enough for text, images, and videos, the idea of a 'cyborg' is a reality. Connecting the smartphone to my brain via direct link rather than through eyeballs and fingers is a small leap compared to going from 'person with no computer' to 'person with todays smartphone'. TO be honest I am also skeptical that direct brain-computer interfaces are the future but on a long enough timescale anything is possible.
  - j0hnyl 4y ago
    IMO, having such an interface completely eliminates the need for us to have the hardware in the first place. I don't think of a brain computer face as a one way device, but two way. The reason we have a physical phone is because you need to hold it up to your ear, your eyes need to read the screen, and the fingers need to give it commands. If we can solve for the bi-directional communication then the phone just becomes a tiny little thing that sits in your pocket to facilitate connectivity to your brain and to the wireless network. Anyway, I agree this is far-fetched given the current state of the tech, and I think your skepticism is certainly well grounded, but I think we will make advancements in that direction. To me it feels like the natural evolution is to gradually get rid of personal device reliance... I think in our lifetime we will see the first steps towards this.
hiidrew 4y ago
I hope this is wrong but this feels right. AR could be the next personal paradigm but still too many engineering constraints.
blablabla123 4y ago
Speaking of energy I think energy saving software could be something. Native Apps on the PC/Mac without Electron might have a comeback
- tohmasch 4y ago
  Apps to save energy, like allowing your device to enter a low-battery mode or state? Wouldn't energy saving apps just reduce your current quality of computing?
  - blablabla123 4y ago
    I mean for instance comparing an App written in a native framework with an Electron App or even a Web App. It's likely more snappy and more secure.
mateomorris 4y ago
Agree, but think there’s potential for improved typing speed on desktop. I just learned about this new keyboard (called CharaChorder) that lets you type 300WPM+ by pressing multiple multi-directional keys at once (ie “chording” keys). Could definitely see it taking off with professionals who are bottlenecked by typing speed.
- wilsonnb3 4y ago
  > Could definitely see it taking off with professionals who are bottlenecked by typing speed. Professionals who are bottlenecked by typing speed have been using stenographs rather than qwerty keyboards since before computers were invented.

blairbeckwith 4y ago

This feels right to me on the hardware front, especially about laptops and desktops. Their basic form hasn't even remotely changed over the past 30 years. There have been improvements – smaller, lighter, more powerful. There have been tweaks – convertible laptops, for example, but those haven't really stuck nor displaced the standard laptop. We are approximately, what, 40 years since the first thing that resembles a modern laptop, and it's fundamentally the same form factor. Even phones have grown in capabilities much more than they have changed in form factors. I wish we were closer to the 'next big thing', but I'd put bets on things staying largely the same. VR/AR, either via a headset, glasses, or contacts seem like the safest bet, but in no way a given.

j0hnyl 4y ago

I actually disagree. I think in 100 years we will have at least a prototype for a WIRELESS brain computer interface. The form factor like the laptop and mobile phone are super limiting. The "internet" will come out of these devices into the real world. I also think that VR headsets will go the way of the MiniDisc, hot for a brief period of time, but defunct before they have a chance to take off because they will be obsolete.

wilsonnb3 4y ago
> I actually disagree. I think in 100 years we will have at least a prototype for a WIRELESS brain computer interface. Even if we integrate the internet directly into our heads via wireless brain-computer interface, I don't see that as revolutionary compared to what we have now. Now that we have computers small enough to be on our person at all times and wireless bandwidth fast enough for text, images, and videos, the idea of a 'cyborg' is a reality. Connecting the smartphone to my brain via direct link rather than through eyeballs and fingers is a small leap compared to going from 'person with no computer' to 'person with todays smartphone'. TO be honest I am also skeptical that direct brain-computer interfaces are the future but on a long enough timescale anything is possible.
- j0hnyl 4y ago
  IMO, having such an interface completely eliminates the need for us to have the hardware in the first place. I don't think of a brain computer face as a one way device, but two way. The reason we have a physical phone is because you need to hold it up to your ear, your eyes need to read the screen, and the fingers need to give it commands. If we can solve for the bi-directional communication then the phone just becomes a tiny little thing that sits in your pocket to facilitate connectivity to your brain and to the wireless network. Anyway, I agree this is far-fetched given the current state of the tech, and I think your skepticism is certainly well grounded, but I think we will make advancements in that direction. To me it feels like the natural evolution is to gradually get rid of personal device reliance... I think in our lifetime we will see the first steps towards this.

hiidrew 4y ago

I hope this is wrong but this feels right. AR could be the next personal paradigm but still too many engineering constraints.

blablabla123 4y ago

Speaking of energy I think energy saving software could be something. Native Apps on the PC/Mac without Electron might have a comeback

tohmasch 4y ago
Apps to save energy, like allowing your device to enter a low-battery mode or state? Wouldn't energy saving apps just reduce your current quality of computing?
- blablabla123 4y ago
  I mean for instance comparing an App written in a native framework with an Electron App or even a Web App. It's likely more snappy and more secure.

mateomorris 4y ago

Agree, but think there’s potential for improved typing speed on desktop. I just learned about this new keyboard (called CharaChorder) that lets you type 300WPM+ by pressing multiple multi-directional keys at once (ie “chording” keys). Could definitely see it taking off with professionals who are bottlenecked by typing speed.

wilsonnb3 4y ago
> Could definitely see it taking off with professionals who are bottlenecked by typing speed. Professionals who are bottlenecked by typing speed have been using stenographs rather than qwerty keyboards since before computers were invented.