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For me, what allowed this to happen is that NATO were slow walking Ukraine. This created the uneasy possibility that they could join but never really giving the

For me, what allowed this to happen is that NATO were slow walking Ukraine. This created the uneasy possibility that they could join but never really giving the signal that they can join. They asked for a Membership Action Plan in 2020. In 2022 they still weren't given one and got invaded because of NATO. It takes two to tango as they say and those two are Russia and NATO and the Ukrianan people are the ones who suffer the most.

danbruc 4y ago
It was the Bucharest summit 2008 that started paving the way for Ukraine and Georgia to become NATO members. Georgia was immediately attacked, Ukraine under Yanukovych suspended its membership ambitions itself until 2014. When they resumed their membership ambitions, Crimea and the east Ukraine where the response of Russia and this prevented a NATO membership because you can not be in an active conflict as far as I know. This then gave Russia time to prepare the invasion in order to try to prevent a NATO membership forcefully.
- aidenn0 4y ago
  I think you have the ordering of 2014 backwards. It wasn't until December that Ukraine resumed their plans for joining NATO and was arguably a response to Russian activity in Donbas and Crimea.
  - danbruc 4y ago
    This is indeed crucial and when I first researched this after the invasion started, I arrived at Russia reacting. I can however no longer tell how I arrived at this conclusion. If I find some time, I will look into this again, as it is pretty important for my understanding and explanation of the conflict. Ad hoc I am not sure if this would completely break my point of view.
    - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
      Wow. Sincere, major props for considering that you could be wrong, on an issue that you clearly have strong opinions on.
      - danbruc 4y ago
        Well, I am only interested in understanding the world, I don't care who is the good and who is the bad guy. And if I am wrong, I want to know it.
    - aidenn0 4y ago
      Let me know if you find something definitive. Figuring out this timeline shouldn't be as hard as it has been for me when you mentioned something contrary to my recollection...
      - danbruc 4y ago
        You are of course correct that Ukraine officially gave up the non-alignment in late December 2014. What I have to check is whether in late 2013 or early 2014 there were any indications that Ukraine might reverse course.
        aidenn0 4y ago
        The Maidan revolution was certainly one such sign; it was about joining the EU, not NATO, but the two are somewhat correlated.
        danbruc 4y ago
        Sure but I do not think that I would have seen Maidan in general as something that warranted more or less immediate action from Russia. Either I really got this wrong or I must have come across something more relevant. I think it is fair to assume that in general the USA prefers Ukraine in NATO over a neutral Ukraine and that over one oriented towards Russia. In NATO there are at least some countries that preferred Ukraine remaining neutral. Even if everyone always says that it is a sovereign decision that does not preclude them from at least having preferences. But there is at least some evidence for outside influence to push Ukraine into a certain direction which goes beyond just having a preference. I did a bit of reading yesterday but I have not yet found anything I consider strong enough to support my Russia reacted point of view. At least at this specific point in time, in general I still have no reason to doubt that a NATO membership was the desired outcome. So currently I really tend towards I got this wrong and I am mostly held back only because I looked into all this in quite some detail after the invasion started and that seems like a mistake I should not have made.
    - ghostwriter 4y ago
      The post you responded to omits a few important segments that are crucial for understaning actions and reactions. Let's start with: - 1990 - 2000: whether Ukraine had a sovereign right to join military blocs in the first place and how Zelensky's rhetoric on the matter contributed to Moscow's decision making. My past comments regarding the issue: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32299159 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32299159 - 2011-2014: pre-cursory events to the successful armed coup against the legitimate sitting president in early 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31763329 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31763329 - late 2013 - early 2014: U.S. officals' unofficial position that they themselves summarized as "Fuck the EU". Media coverage: https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-diplomat-victoria-nuland-phonecall-leaked-video https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-di... and the full version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YctPO-k7ZlM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YctPO-k7ZlM - ~8 years of what could be best characterised as a civil war between two sides of the same country backed by two different world powers. A period of forming of Azov Battalion out of nationalistic elements of the divided society (long twitter thread): https://twitter.com/camaradabruno/status/1499781846682505220 https://twitter.com/camaradabruno/status/1499781846682505220 - 2021: UK's making a show of support for Ukraine in Black Sea near Crimea: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident - June 2021: Boris Johnson says HMS Defender’s deployment ‘wholly appropriate’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFWM7s2I52g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFWM7s2I52g - Late November 2021: red lines are officially outlined, Crimea status is non-negotiable: https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-will-act-if-nato-crosses-its-red-lines-ukraine-2021-11-30/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-wi... - December 2021 Putin asks (demands) for concrete legal guarantees that would allow to prevent a conflict from escalating into a hot phase: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-... - Early 2022: “Do you realize that if Ukraine joins NATO and decides to take Crimea back through military means, the European countries will automatically get drawn into a military conflict with Russia?” Putin said. “Of course, NATO’s united potential and that of Russia are incomparable.”: https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/putin-says-ukraine-membership-in-nato-would-make-nuclear-war-more-likely/ https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/putin-says-ukraine-membershi...

danbruc 4y ago

It was the Bucharest summit 2008 that started paving the way for Ukraine and Georgia to become NATO members. Georgia was immediately attacked, Ukraine under Yanukovych suspended its membership ambitions itself until 2014. When they resumed their membership ambitions, Crimea and the east Ukraine where the response of Russia and this prevented a NATO membership because you can not be in an active conflict as far as I know. This then gave Russia time to prepare the invasion in order to try to prevent a NATO membership forcefully.

aidenn0 4y ago
I think you have the ordering of 2014 backwards. It wasn't until December that Ukraine resumed their plans for joining NATO and was arguably a response to Russian activity in Donbas and Crimea.
- danbruc 4y ago
  This is indeed crucial and when I first researched this after the invasion started, I arrived at Russia reacting. I can however no longer tell how I arrived at this conclusion. If I find some time, I will look into this again, as it is pretty important for my understanding and explanation of the conflict. Ad hoc I am not sure if this would completely break my point of view.
  - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
    Wow. Sincere, major props for considering that you could be wrong, on an issue that you clearly have strong opinions on.
    - danbruc 4y ago
      Well, I am only interested in understanding the world, I don't care who is the good and who is the bad guy. And if I am wrong, I want to know it.
  - aidenn0 4y ago
    Let me know if you find something definitive. Figuring out this timeline shouldn't be as hard as it has been for me when you mentioned something contrary to my recollection...
    - danbruc 4y ago
      You are of course correct that Ukraine officially gave up the non-alignment in late December 2014. What I have to check is whether in late 2013 or early 2014 there were any indications that Ukraine might reverse course.
      - aidenn0 4y ago
        The Maidan revolution was certainly one such sign; it was about joining the EU, not NATO, but the two are somewhat correlated.
        danbruc 4y ago
        Sure but I do not think that I would have seen Maidan in general as something that warranted more or less immediate action from Russia. Either I really got this wrong or I must have come across something more relevant. I think it is fair to assume that in general the USA prefers Ukraine in NATO over a neutral Ukraine and that over one oriented towards Russia. In NATO there are at least some countries that preferred Ukraine remaining neutral. Even if everyone always says that it is a sovereign decision that does not preclude them from at least having preferences. But there is at least some evidence for outside influence to push Ukraine into a certain direction which goes beyond just having a preference. I did a bit of reading yesterday but I have not yet found anything I consider strong enough to support my Russia reacted point of view. At least at this specific point in time, in general I still have no reason to doubt that a NATO membership was the desired outcome. So currently I really tend towards I got this wrong and I am mostly held back only because I looked into all this in quite some detail after the invasion started and that seems like a mistake I should not have made.
  - ghostwriter 4y ago
    The post you responded to omits a few important segments that are crucial for understaning actions and reactions. Let's start with: - 1990 - 2000: whether Ukraine had a sovereign right to join military blocs in the first place and how Zelensky's rhetoric on the matter contributed to Moscow's decision making. My past comments regarding the issue: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32299159 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32299159 - 2011-2014: pre-cursory events to the successful armed coup against the legitimate sitting president in early 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31763329 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31763329 - late 2013 - early 2014: U.S. officals' unofficial position that they themselves summarized as "Fuck the EU". Media coverage: https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-diplomat-victoria-nuland-phonecall-leaked-video https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-di... and the full version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YctPO-k7ZlM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YctPO-k7ZlM - ~8 years of what could be best characterised as a civil war between two sides of the same country backed by two different world powers. A period of forming of Azov Battalion out of nationalistic elements of the divided society (long twitter thread): https://twitter.com/camaradabruno/status/1499781846682505220 https://twitter.com/camaradabruno/status/1499781846682505220 - 2021: UK's making a show of support for Ukraine in Black Sea near Crimea: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident - June 2021: Boris Johnson says HMS Defender’s deployment ‘wholly appropriate’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFWM7s2I52g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFWM7s2I52g - Late November 2021: red lines are officially outlined, Crimea status is non-negotiable: https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-will-act-if-nato-crosses-its-red-lines-ukraine-2021-11-30/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-wi... - December 2021 Putin asks (demands) for concrete legal guarantees that would allow to prevent a conflict from escalating into a hot phase: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-... - Early 2022: “Do you realize that if Ukraine joins NATO and decides to take Crimea back through military means, the European countries will automatically get drawn into a military conflict with Russia?” Putin said. “Of course, NATO’s united potential and that of Russia are incomparable.”: https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/putin-says-ukraine-membership-in-nato-would-make-nuclear-war-more-likely/ https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/putin-says-ukraine-membershi...