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I also tend to put some blame on NATO, but I think they should not have offered a membership or only one with additional rules like in the case of Norway. The p

I also tend to put some blame on NATO, but I think they should not have offered a membership or only one with additional rules like in the case of Norway. The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is what forced Russia to act to possibly prevent a NATO membership, as you said this would have become a lot more impossible to do once Ukraine had joined NATO.

dragonwriter 4y ago
> The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is what forced Russia to act to possibly prevent a NATO membership It didn't force Russia to do anything.
- danbruc 4y ago
  If you consider Ukraine becoming a NATO member a threat to Russian security that has to be prevented at all costs, then you are forced to act if your opposition is ignored. Besides this there are essentially only two options - Ukraine does not become a NATO member or you convince Russia that a Ukrainian NATO membership is not a threat to its security. EDIT: As a thought experiment entertain the idea of a partnership between Mexico and China where in exchange for economic support China gets a few military bases in northern Mexico, just a few thousand soldiers and tanks and maybe an airfield here or there. Take into account the recent US reaction in response to a partnership between the Solomon Islands and China [1]. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/23/us-warns-solomon-islands-against-china-military-base-as-australian-mps-trade-blame https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/23/us-warns-solom...
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - greaterthan3 4y ago
    This explanation doesn't make much sense. If Ukraine maybe joining NATO in an unspecified future is such a big threat to Russia, then surely Finland joining it right now is an even bigger threat. Not to mention that Poland and the Baltic states already are NATO members. Russia's security is guaranteed by nukes. Security definitely wasn't the reason why Russia has invaded Ukraine.
    - that_guy_iain 4y ago
      Russia is busy with Ukraine so can't deal with Finland however they have been talking tough and posturing. NATO members are NATO members, attacking them after they've joined NATO an orginisation basically created to fight Russia would mean you go to war with all NATO members. Russia's preference methodogly of defence is creating distance. With Ukraine, NATO would have been extremely close to Moscow. Finland is further away but they're still not happy about it. NATO expanding into that region was well known to be something that would threaten Russia, since it was founded to fight Russia, to the point Joe Biden said decades ago[1], that Russia expanding into that region would cause conflicts. [1] https://multipolarista.com/2022/03/08/biden-nato-expansion-russia-hostile-reaction/ https://multipolarista.com/2022/03/08/biden-nato-expansion-r...
    - danbruc 4y ago
      If security is guaranteed by nukes, why does the US threaten the Salomon Island? Placing missile defense systems close to the launch sites gives you the possibility to intercept them early in the boost phase when they are still slow. Having assets close to enemy borders in general gives you shorter reaction times. This is about tipping the scale somewhat in your favor, not ensuring your victory. I am not qualified to judge the situation with Finnland, but not all neighbors are necessarily equal. Things like geography, for example, might play a role and Finnland in, Ukraine out might be more desirable than Ukraine in, Finnland out.
that_guy_iain 4y ago
For me, what allowed this to happen is that NATO were slow walking Ukraine. This created the uneasy possibility that they could join but never really giving the signal that they can join. They asked for a Membership Action Plan in 2020. In 2022 they still weren't given one and got invaded because of NATO. It takes two to tango as they say and those two are Russia and NATO and the Ukrianan people are the ones who suffer the most.
- danbruc 4y ago
  It was the Bucharest summit 2008 that started paving the way for Ukraine and Georgia to become NATO members. Georgia was immediately attacked, Ukraine under Yanukovych suspended its membership ambitions itself until 2014. When they resumed their membership ambitions, Crimea and the east Ukraine where the response of Russia and this prevented a NATO membership because you can not be in an active conflict as far as I know. This then gave Russia time to prepare the invasion in order to try to prevent a NATO membership forcefully.
  - aidenn0 4y ago
    I think you have the ordering of 2014 backwards. It wasn't until December that Ukraine resumed their plans for joining NATO and was arguably a response to Russian activity in Donbas and Crimea.
    - danbruc 4y ago
      This is indeed crucial and when I first researched this after the invasion started, I arrived at Russia reacting. I can however no longer tell how I arrived at this conclusion. If I find some time, I will look into this again, as it is pretty important for my understanding and explanation of the conflict. Ad hoc I am not sure if this would completely break my point of view.
      - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
        Wow. Sincere, major props for considering that you could be wrong, on an issue that you clearly have strong opinions on.
mechanical_bear 4y ago
“Blah blah… fOrCeD …blah blah” There was no compulsion involved in Russia invading their neighbors.
- danbruc 4y ago
  How should Russia have prevented Ukraine from joining NATO alternatively?
  - mechanical_bear 4y ago
    Why should Russia have prevented a sovereign nation from doing anything? Is Ukraine not a sovereign nation? Should the US prevent Mexico from joining into a membership scheme with other nations?
    - danbruc 4y ago
      Look at the US reaction towards the Solomon Islands [1] earlier this year. And we are not talking about memberships in random international organizations, we are talking about placing military assets close to rival borders. Do you think the USA would tolerate Chinese bases, tanks and airplanes in northern Mexico? What happened when Cuba asked for Soviet ICBMs as deterent against the USA trying to overthrow their government? Sovereignty does not mean you can do whatever you want. Why do the USA and Israel try to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons, are they not a sovereign state? Why invade Afghanistan, is hosting terrorists not something sovereign state can do if they want? You can of course maintain that sovereignty grants you the right to do whatever you want inside your territory, but then you also have to admit that not only the evil Russians are violating rights left and right.
  - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
    How about by making Ukraine not feel threatened by Russia, so that it didn't feel that it needed to join NATO for its own protection?
    - danbruc 4y ago

dragonwriter 4y ago

> The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is what forced Russia to act to possibly prevent a NATO membership It didn't force Russia to do anything.

danbruc 4y ago
If you consider Ukraine becoming a NATO member a threat to Russian security that has to be prevented at all costs, then you are forced to act if your opposition is ignored. Besides this there are essentially only two options - Ukraine does not become a NATO member or you convince Russia that a Ukrainian NATO membership is not a threat to its security. EDIT: As a thought experiment entertain the idea of a partnership between Mexico and China where in exchange for economic support China gets a few military bases in northern Mexico, just a few thousand soldiers and tanks and maybe an airfield here or there. Take into account the recent US reaction in response to a partnership between the Solomon Islands and China [1]. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/23/us-warns-solomon-islands-against-china-military-base-as-australian-mps-trade-blame https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/23/us-warns-solom...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- greaterthan3 4y ago
  This explanation doesn't make much sense. If Ukraine maybe joining NATO in an unspecified future is such a big threat to Russia, then surely Finland joining it right now is an even bigger threat. Not to mention that Poland and the Baltic states already are NATO members. Russia's security is guaranteed by nukes. Security definitely wasn't the reason why Russia has invaded Ukraine.
  - that_guy_iain 4y ago
    Russia is busy with Ukraine so can't deal with Finland however they have been talking tough and posturing. NATO members are NATO members, attacking them after they've joined NATO an orginisation basically created to fight Russia would mean you go to war with all NATO members. Russia's preference methodogly of defence is creating distance. With Ukraine, NATO would have been extremely close to Moscow. Finland is further away but they're still not happy about it. NATO expanding into that region was well known to be something that would threaten Russia, since it was founded to fight Russia, to the point Joe Biden said decades ago[1], that Russia expanding into that region would cause conflicts. [1] https://multipolarista.com/2022/03/08/biden-nato-expansion-russia-hostile-reaction/ https://multipolarista.com/2022/03/08/biden-nato-expansion-r...
  - danbruc 4y ago
    If security is guaranteed by nukes, why does the US threaten the Salomon Island? Placing missile defense systems close to the launch sites gives you the possibility to intercept them early in the boost phase when they are still slow. Having assets close to enemy borders in general gives you shorter reaction times. This is about tipping the scale somewhat in your favor, not ensuring your victory. I am not qualified to judge the situation with Finnland, but not all neighbors are necessarily equal. Things like geography, for example, might play a role and Finnland in, Ukraine out might be more desirable than Ukraine in, Finnland out.

that_guy_iain 4y ago

For me, what allowed this to happen is that NATO were slow walking Ukraine. This created the uneasy possibility that they could join but never really giving the signal that they can join. They asked for a Membership Action Plan in 2020. In 2022 they still weren't given one and got invaded because of NATO. It takes two to tango as they say and those two are Russia and NATO and the Ukrianan people are the ones who suffer the most.

danbruc 4y ago
It was the Bucharest summit 2008 that started paving the way for Ukraine and Georgia to become NATO members. Georgia was immediately attacked, Ukraine under Yanukovych suspended its membership ambitions itself until 2014. When they resumed their membership ambitions, Crimea and the east Ukraine where the response of Russia and this prevented a NATO membership because you can not be in an active conflict as far as I know. This then gave Russia time to prepare the invasion in order to try to prevent a NATO membership forcefully.
- aidenn0 4y ago
  I think you have the ordering of 2014 backwards. It wasn't until December that Ukraine resumed their plans for joining NATO and was arguably a response to Russian activity in Donbas and Crimea.
  - danbruc 4y ago
    This is indeed crucial and when I first researched this after the invasion started, I arrived at Russia reacting. I can however no longer tell how I arrived at this conclusion. If I find some time, I will look into this again, as it is pretty important for my understanding and explanation of the conflict. Ad hoc I am not sure if this would completely break my point of view.
    - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
      Wow. Sincere, major props for considering that you could be wrong, on an issue that you clearly have strong opinions on.

mechanical_bear 4y ago

“Blah blah… fOrCeD …blah blah” There was no compulsion involved in Russia invading their neighbors.

danbruc 4y ago
How should Russia have prevented Ukraine from joining NATO alternatively?
- mechanical_bear 4y ago
  Why should Russia have prevented a sovereign nation from doing anything? Is Ukraine not a sovereign nation? Should the US prevent Mexico from joining into a membership scheme with other nations?
  - danbruc 4y ago
    Look at the US reaction towards the Solomon Islands [1] earlier this year. And we are not talking about memberships in random international organizations, we are talking about placing military assets close to rival borders. Do you think the USA would tolerate Chinese bases, tanks and airplanes in northern Mexico? What happened when Cuba asked for Soviet ICBMs as deterent against the USA trying to overthrow their government? Sovereignty does not mean you can do whatever you want. Why do the USA and Israel try to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons, are they not a sovereign state? Why invade Afghanistan, is hosting terrorists not something sovereign state can do if they want? You can of course maintain that sovereignty grants you the right to do whatever you want inside your territory, but then you also have to admit that not only the evil Russians are violating rights left and right.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  How about by making Ukraine not feel threatened by Russia, so that it didn't feel that it needed to join NATO for its own protection?
  - danbruc 4y ago