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I have read one of Vaclav Smil’s books and I think he is too stuck on the idea that history will repeat itself. I don’t think this transition compares to the p
by philips 4y ago
I have read one of Vaclav Smil’s books and I think he is too stuck on the idea that history will repeat itself. I don’t think this transition compares to the past examples he uses for political and technological reasons and in fact Energy Myths and Realities doesn’t age well because of how rapidly the statistics got out of date on renewable adoption.
That said the book is a great and useful historical work.
His steadfastness to this hypothesis that “all transitions are like past transitions” is explicitly stated in the end of one of his books:
"A world without fossil fuel combustion is highly desirable, and, to be optimistic, our collective determination, commitment, and persistence could accelerate its arrival. But getting there will be expensive and will require considerable patience. Coming energy transitions will unfold, as the past ones have done, across decades, not years." (Vaclav Smil, Energy Myths and Realities)