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Or just buy SPY or VTI and go braindead with it. Hard to beat dollar cost averaging the entire stock market, which is what VTI represents. -------- Rebalanci

Or just buy SPY or VTI and go braindead with it. Hard to beat dollar cost averaging the entire stock market, which is what VTI represents. -------- Rebalancing is done between asset classes. But if you are going to rebalance, it's more efficient to buy target date funds.

kube-system 4y ago
> Hard to beat dollar cost averaging the entire stock market Easy! Dollar cost average a leverage fund that invests in the entire stock market. TQQQ beats SPY over the long term.
- itsoktocry 4y ago
  >invests in the entire stock market. TQQQ indexes the Nasdaq 100, not remotely close to "the entire stock market".
  - kube-system 4y ago
    True, and SPY is only S&P 500. But you get my point.
- M3L0NM4N 4y ago
  I DCA TQQQ, but you have to know that in 2008, for example, had a 96% drawdown. The triple leverage can basically wipe out your entire equity, so you need a strong stomach.
  - kube-system 4y ago
    I just do it in my play money account. Casual day trading wastes too much time that I could otherwise waste on HN, so I risk my money with TQQQ instead.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
francisofascii 4y ago
VTI is only the US stock market. VT might be better since it represents the world.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  Fair. There's a question about "how big a basket you want". SPY (S&P 500, average of the top 500 companies in the USA) is fine. VTI is fine. VT is fine. They'll all fluctuate with each other since they're different baskets, but picking a broad-basket of stocks and diversifying is the most obvious good strategy for stock picking.
3pt14159 4y ago
Is it hard to beat though? When I started just allocating money into tech stocks I, as a software guy, appreciated return went way, way, way up. Those Wall St quants can only appreciate M1 so far. They can't see the server farms 5 years out running linux on mac hardware. Or even if they can, they're paid to make decisions every day. "Boss, I'm just going to park it all on hedged and leveraged AAPL derivatives for the next half decade and sit on a beach." Isn't really going to fly.
- jedberg 4y ago
  > They can't see the server farms 5 years out running linux on mac hardware. They definitely can. I got paid quite good money to sit down with full time professional investors and tell them exactly that, and lots of other things. They don't go into these things blind. They pay good money to people like us to tell them what they need to know so they can see the future just a little better than everyone else.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  Wall Street literally values Apple / AAPL as the most valuable company in the world. So I literally don't know what you're talking about. VTI in any case is "the market average", because its literally the whole market. Its surprisingly a difficult strategy to beat, becaust most stock pickers perform below average (!!!). ------- The only thing is that the stock market is very volatile. So it makes more sense to mix in bonds with regards to historical risk/reward. You lower your average gains, but often reduce your losses. (Long term bonds are doing poorly early this year, but with interest rates rising, I'd expect that moving forward bonds are going to do well) And that's where a "target lifepath" fund goes. Those funds mix "total stock market" with "total bond market" and call it a day.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago
  Yes - Because we are talking over 20-50+ year timeframes (Well, some of the big firms are thinking in 200-400 yr timeframes like rothchilds. What if in 10 years the government decides that apple is too powerful? A new CEO comes in and destroys what has been built? A new competitor comes up with a product that is vastly supperior? A total stock market crash happens and your portfolio didn't have any bonds/ shorts/ hedges. You might be able to go into financial ruin and no one would blink an eye. If large, multigenerational funds go down its a very big deal indeed. that's why "Boss, I'm just going to park it all on hedged and leveraged AAPL derivatives for the next half decade and sit on a beach." Isn't really going to fly. isn't going to fly because the risk delta on that is very high indeed.
kareemsabri 4y ago
Sure, I mean you can DCA into SPY if that's what you like. Some people do want a bit more higher-risk or sector specific approaches. I personally have 50% going into SPY DCA then a bunch of other bets. Some of them have outperformed SPY, certainly in the bull market. We'll see how they do over 20 years though.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  I have a bunch of other bets too, but its mostly play money. I've actually outperformed SPY with my personal bets, both over the last 10 years in general, as well as over the last 2 years (including this bear market). But this is play money, not serious money. The bulk of my money is SPY/VTI + various Bond funds. I'm holding short duration and ultra-short duration and even Money Market for the near future, giving an eye to expectations from the Fed / interest rate hikes before jumping back into long term bonds.
gerad 4y ago
Somewhat shameless plug, but we’re launching this week so now or never. If you want to see how a specific asset mix based on your goals performs (e.g. more in cash and BND and less in VT because you have a big home purchase coming up), check out our app at https://livefortunately.com/ https://livefortunately.com/ I’m traveling today so replies may be delayed.
- patch45 4y ago
  Intriguing! What do you mean when you say "We license the economic simulations trusted by hedge funds and insurance industry"?
  - gerad 4y ago
    We get our simulations from Conning [1], a 100 year old company that sells such simulations to these industries. We talk a bit more about it in our "white paper" blog post about what makes us different [2]. 1: https://www.conning.com/-/media/marketingsite/documents/product-sheets/software-and-services/risk-solutions/gems-esg.pdf https://www.conning.com/-/media/marketingsite/documents/prod... 2: https://livefortunately.com/insights/what-makes-us-awesome https://livefortunately.com/insights/what-makes-us-awesome
turndownsideup 4y ago
Hmm SPY weighting... 6.6% AAPL 6% MSFT 2.9% AMZN 3.9% GOOGL 1.8% TSLA Brain dead DCA + working in tech and getting RSU / ISO re-ups every year means you're just betting only on tech. Customization allows you to mitigate/ manage some sector risk if you want it.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- jamil7 4y ago
  You can still do that with individual stocks or sector ETFs (if you can stomach the expense) while holding a broader index as the core.
- nerdponx 4y ago
  Are there any funds that specifically seek to spread exposure across multiple sectors of the economy?
  - aketchum 4y ago
    yeah, VTSAX or other total market index funds
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      There is not much difference in allocation (see portfolio tab): VTSAX - total US stock market mutual fund https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsax/portfolio https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsax/portfolio SP500 - VOO https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/voo/portfolio https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/voo/portfolio Tech simply has a proven track record of raking in outsize profits, and I see no reason to bet against businesses with unmatched efficiencies of scale and enormous barriers to entry. Hell, even the king of investing, Warren Buffet, has been humbled by BRK only just keeping up with SP500 because of its huge 25% investment in Apple. You would have to go out to VT - total world market to see a difference in portfolio allocation. https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vt/portfolio https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vt/portfolio
lettergram 4y ago
> Hard to beat dollar cost averaging the entire stock market, which is what VTI represents. Unless you invested in 2021… The common “wisdom” of dollar cost averaging the market only works for those (1) who never sell (2) continue to have an ever inflating dollar and QE and (3) an ever growing economy Right now energy prices are 3x-5x a few years ago. That will dramatically reduce growth and may even shrink the economy. Arguably the real economy has been stagnant for quite some time. Not financial advice, but at the moment I would consider holding cash or other solid assets. Waiting for the energy situation to stabilize then buy in. You could cost average, but timing the market can produce multiples more gains if your calm / collected, informed and willing to wait. DCA reduces risks, particularly on the whole market. They said it doesn’t remove risk and it definitely reduces potential upside.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- nly 4y ago
  Funny, because all the data and research shows the opposite. Read this: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co...
  - Infernal 4y ago
    The post you're replying to: > dollar cost averaging the market only works for those (1) who never sell The article you link to: > The only other rule in this game is that you cannot move in and out of stocks. Once you make a purchase, you hold those stocks until the end of the time period.
    - nly 4y ago
      Which is exactly what most people do when funding retirement (the time period = your accumulation period)

kube-system 4y ago

> Hard to beat dollar cost averaging the entire stock market Easy! Dollar cost average a leverage fund that invests in the entire stock market. TQQQ beats SPY over the long term.

itsoktocry 4y ago
>invests in the entire stock market. TQQQ indexes the Nasdaq 100, not remotely close to "the entire stock market".
- kube-system 4y ago
  True, and SPY is only S&P 500. But you get my point.
M3L0NM4N 4y ago
I DCA TQQQ, but you have to know that in 2008, for example, had a 96% drawdown. The triple leverage can basically wipe out your entire equity, so you need a strong stomach.
- kube-system 4y ago
  I just do it in my play money account. Casual day trading wastes too much time that I could otherwise waste on HN, so I risk my money with TQQQ instead.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

francisofascii 4y ago

VTI is only the US stock market. VT might be better since it represents the world.

dragontamer 4y ago
Fair. There's a question about "how big a basket you want". SPY (S&P 500, average of the top 500 companies in the USA) is fine. VTI is fine. VT is fine. They'll all fluctuate with each other since they're different baskets, but picking a broad-basket of stocks and diversifying is the most obvious good strategy for stock picking.

3pt14159 4y ago

Is it hard to beat though? When I started just allocating money into tech stocks I, as a software guy, appreciated return went way, way, way up. Those Wall St quants can only appreciate M1 so far. They can't see the server farms 5 years out running linux on mac hardware. Or even if they can, they're paid to make decisions every day. "Boss, I'm just going to park it all on hedged and leveraged AAPL derivatives for the next half decade and sit on a beach." Isn't really going to fly.

jedberg 4y ago
> They can't see the server farms 5 years out running linux on mac hardware. They definitely can. I got paid quite good money to sit down with full time professional investors and tell them exactly that, and lots of other things. They don't go into these things blind. They pay good money to people like us to tell them what they need to know so they can see the future just a little better than everyone else.
dragontamer 4y ago
Wall Street literally values Apple / AAPL as the most valuable company in the world. So I literally don't know what you're talking about. VTI in any case is "the market average", because its literally the whole market. Its surprisingly a difficult strategy to beat, becaust most stock pickers perform below average (!!!). ------- The only thing is that the stock market is very volatile. So it makes more sense to mix in bonds with regards to historical risk/reward. You lower your average gains, but often reduce your losses. (Long term bonds are doing poorly early this year, but with interest rates rising, I'd expect that moving forward bonds are going to do well) And that's where a "target lifepath" fund goes. Those funds mix "total stock market" with "total bond market" and call it a day.
TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago
Yes - Because we are talking over 20-50+ year timeframes (Well, some of the big firms are thinking in 200-400 yr timeframes like rothchilds. What if in 10 years the government decides that apple is too powerful? A new CEO comes in and destroys what has been built? A new competitor comes up with a product that is vastly supperior? A total stock market crash happens and your portfolio didn't have any bonds/ shorts/ hedges. You might be able to go into financial ruin and no one would blink an eye. If large, multigenerational funds go down its a very big deal indeed. that's why "Boss, I'm just going to park it all on hedged and leveraged AAPL derivatives for the next half decade and sit on a beach." Isn't really going to fly. isn't going to fly because the risk delta on that is very high indeed.

kareemsabri 4y ago

Sure, I mean you can DCA into SPY if that's what you like. Some people do want a bit more higher-risk or sector specific approaches. I personally have 50% going into SPY DCA then a bunch of other bets. Some of them have outperformed SPY, certainly in the bull market. We'll see how they do over 20 years though.

dragontamer 4y ago
I have a bunch of other bets too, but its mostly play money. I've actually outperformed SPY with my personal bets, both over the last 10 years in general, as well as over the last 2 years (including this bear market). But this is play money, not serious money. The bulk of my money is SPY/VTI + various Bond funds. I'm holding short duration and ultra-short duration and even Money Market for the near future, giving an eye to expectations from the Fed / interest rate hikes before jumping back into long term bonds.

gerad 4y ago

Somewhat shameless plug, but we’re launching this week so now or never. If you want to see how a specific asset mix based on your goals performs (e.g. more in cash and BND and less in VT because you have a big home purchase coming up), check out our app at https://livefortunately.com/ https://livefortunately.com/ I’m traveling today so replies may be delayed.

patch45 4y ago
Intriguing! What do you mean when you say "We license the economic simulations trusted by hedge funds and insurance industry"?
- gerad 4y ago
  We get our simulations from Conning [1], a 100 year old company that sells such simulations to these industries. We talk a bit more about it in our "white paper" blog post about what makes us different [2]. 1: https://www.conning.com/-/media/marketingsite/documents/product-sheets/software-and-services/risk-solutions/gems-esg.pdf https://www.conning.com/-/media/marketingsite/documents/prod... 2: https://livefortunately.com/insights/what-makes-us-awesome https://livefortunately.com/insights/what-makes-us-awesome

turndownsideup 4y ago

Hmm SPY weighting... 6.6% AAPL 6% MSFT 2.9% AMZN 3.9% GOOGL 1.8% TSLA Brain dead DCA + working in tech and getting RSU / ISO re-ups every year means you're just betting only on tech. Customization allows you to mitigate/ manage some sector risk if you want it.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
jamil7 4y ago
You can still do that with individual stocks or sector ETFs (if you can stomach the expense) while holding a broader index as the core.
nerdponx 4y ago
Are there any funds that specifically seek to spread exposure across multiple sectors of the economy?
- aketchum 4y ago
  yeah, VTSAX or other total market index funds
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    There is not much difference in allocation (see portfolio tab): VTSAX - total US stock market mutual fund https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsax/portfolio https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtsax/portfolio SP500 - VOO https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/voo/portfolio https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/voo/portfolio Tech simply has a proven track record of raking in outsize profits, and I see no reason to bet against businesses with unmatched efficiencies of scale and enormous barriers to entry. Hell, even the king of investing, Warren Buffet, has been humbled by BRK only just keeping up with SP500 because of its huge 25% investment in Apple. You would have to go out to VT - total world market to see a difference in portfolio allocation. https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vt/portfolio https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vt/portfolio

lettergram 4y ago

> Hard to beat dollar cost averaging the entire stock market, which is what VTI represents. Unless you invested in 2021… The common “wisdom” of dollar cost averaging the market only works for those (1) who never sell (2) continue to have an ever inflating dollar and QE and (3) an ever growing economy Right now energy prices are 3x-5x a few years ago. That will dramatically reduce growth and may even shrink the economy. Arguably the real economy has been stagnant for quite some time. Not financial advice, but at the moment I would consider holding cash or other solid assets. Waiting for the energy situation to stabilize then buy in. You could cost average, but timing the market can produce multiples more gains if your calm / collected, informed and willing to wait. DCA reduces risks, particularly on the whole market. They said it doesn’t remove risk and it definitely reduces potential upside.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
nly 4y ago
Funny, because all the data and research shows the opposite. Read this: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co...
- Infernal 4y ago
  The post you're replying to: > dollar cost averaging the market only works for those (1) who never sell The article you link to: > The only other rule in this game is that you cannot move in and out of stocks. Once you make a purchase, you hold those stocks until the end of the time period.
  - nly 4y ago
    Which is exactly what most people do when funding retirement (the time period = your accumulation period)