3 ms·

This is a very simple question. You just need 1 CSV file. A CSV file with a list of all BioWeaponsLabs and their coordinates. Then for every point on earth comp

by breck 4y ago

This is a very simple question. You just need 1 CSV file. A CSV file with a list of all BioWeaponsLabs and their coordinates. Then for every point on earth compute distance from nearest BioWeaponsLabs. This will give you a heatmap for pr(labLeak|pandemic). Few hrs work. Right? Has anyone done this yet?

widerporst 4y ago
This ignores the fact that these labs are often built closely to where the viruses in question naturally occur.
- breck 4y ago
  Ah that's a good point. So your CSV file would need 1 more column: `type`, `bioWeaponsLab|naturalVirusHotspot`, and then you could have a toggle to see one at a time (or both, overlaid). If anyone makes this CSV with data vis and published to GitHub and it's good I'll send you $500USD worth of NEAR coin or my eternal gratitude and respect (whichever you value more).
empathy_m 4y ago
Are you looking for a diagram like this one? https://www.science.org/cms/10.1126/science.abm4454/asset/75c47a64-23ec-4b85-9534-2ea28d37d0a9/assets/graphic/science.abm4454-f1.svg https://www.science.org/cms/10.1126/science.abm4454/asset/75... ( https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454 )
- breck 4y ago
  No (but interesting link, thanks). I want a CSV with locations of biolabs and historical locations of patient zeros. Given that a novel outbreak of any infectious disease occurred, what is the probability that it would be within N miles of a bioweapons lab? If you set N large enough, the Pr goes to 1. An analogy. Given that there was a housefire of a random natural origin, what is the probability that it would have begun 1 inch from an overloaded socket?
- tristor 4y ago
  Very interesting, but unfortunately misleading because it doesn't show the updated location for the city campus for the WIV. " The closest known CoV RaTG13 strain (96.2%) to SARS-CoV-2 detected in bat anal swabs have been sequenced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory." [0] (page 119) [0] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/final-joint-report_origins-studies-6-april-201.pdf?sfvrsn=4f5e5196_1&download=true#page119 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/final-j...

by breck 4y ago

widerporst 4y ago

This ignores the fact that these labs are often built closely to where the viruses in question naturally occur.

breck 4y ago
Ah that's a good point. So your CSV file would need 1 more column: `type`, `bioWeaponsLab|naturalVirusHotspot`, and then you could have a toggle to see one at a time (or both, overlaid). If anyone makes this CSV with data vis and published to GitHub and it's good I'll send you $500USD worth of NEAR coin or my eternal gratitude and respect (whichever you value more).

empathy_m 4y ago

Are you looking for a diagram like this one? https://www.science.org/cms/10.1126/science.abm4454/asset/75c47a64-23ec-4b85-9534-2ea28d37d0a9/assets/graphic/science.abm4454-f1.svg https://www.science.org/cms/10.1126/science.abm4454/asset/75... ( https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454 )

breck 4y ago
No (but interesting link, thanks). I want a CSV with locations of biolabs and historical locations of patient zeros. Given that a novel outbreak of any infectious disease occurred, what is the probability that it would be within N miles of a bioweapons lab? If you set N large enough, the Pr goes to 1. An analogy. Given that there was a housefire of a random natural origin, what is the probability that it would have begun 1 inch from an overloaded socket?
tristor 4y ago
Very interesting, but unfortunately misleading because it doesn't show the updated location for the city campus for the WIV. " The closest known CoV RaTG13 strain (96.2%) to SARS-CoV-2 detected in bat anal swabs have been sequenced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory." [0] (page 119) [0] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/final-joint-report_origins-studies-6-april-201.pdf?sfvrsn=4f5e5196_1&download=true#page119 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/final-j...