I think the better argument isn’t so much about status: it should have a higher prior because the institutions denying it as a possibility were the very ones fu

I think the better argument isn’t so much about status: it should have a higher prior because the institutions denying it as a possibility were the very ones funding the category of research that could plausibly result in such an incident. This is the same kind of issue as why it’s important to separate the regulator from the regulated.