3 ms·
It's hard to clearly go from "a link between certain cancers and the consumption of red meat" to a causal statement. Like, it's plausible that the red meat is
by PeterisP 4y ago
It's hard to clearly go from "a link between certain cancers and the consumption of red meat" to a causal statement.
Like, it's plausible that the red meat is causing these cancers. It's also plausible to have a different cause - e.g. if people's lifestyles lead to a correlation between consumption of red meat and smoking (for the sake of argument - I have no idea if there actually is one) then we would observe a link between lung cancer and the consumption of red meat without there being any causal relation.
It's also quite plausible that certain ways of preparing food is causing these cancers (e.g. nitrates in bacon, and known carcinogens from high temperature frying on pan or open flame), and we're seeing the effect because we're currently often preparing red meat in this way, but replacing the red meat with fish or vegetarian equivalent in the same fried dish would still have the same carcinogens, and thus the intervention would not get the expected results.
So, a correlation between certain cancers and the consumption of red meat is a good probable cause for an investigation of the causal relationships, but I'd be wary of using it to argue for major dietary changes - the last decades had far too many counterproductive dietary recommendations (e.g. regarding cholesterol) because of non-causal evidence leading into wrong assumptions.
- brigandish 4y agoIgnoring that I haven't made any case for major dietary changes (not here, at least), and though I haven't read the GBD I doubt they will have said any more than a reduction in an individual's red meat consumption is probably a good thing - ignoring all that, I'm willing to bet they've taken into account an obvious factor like smoking. Additionally, the claim in the GBD, according to the Times, is regarding unprocessed red meat. And indeed, correlations aren't causation, but the claim is “The study said it had identified causal relationships between eating red meat and coronary heart disease, breast cancer and strokes, on top of links already established with diabetes and colon cancer” and the "serious errors" are that “the study had failed to take into account the nutritional benefits of red meat as a source of vitamins, iron and protein, that should be weighed against any risks”. I find that a misleading use of the word "error". Don't you?