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I feel like predictions on EV adoption generally focus too much on practical benefits and cost improvements over time, but discount - or at least fail to mentio

I feel like predictions on EV adoption generally focus too much on practical benefits and cost improvements over time, but discount - or at least fail to mention - the potential impact of ICE products becoming very uncool, very quickly - at least in Western countries. Overnight, even. It’s not a big stretch to imagine that generations of younger people concerned about the climate might make product consumption choices that draw a clear line between themselves and their ICE-driving parents.

rootusrootus 4y ago
Plausible, but I always come back to TCO. The real reason EVs are suddenly gaining traction is that prices for gasoline spiked and a lot of people are finally realizing that EVs typically cost much less to fuel. Think about how people suddenly start trading in pickups for compact cars when gas prices have spiked in the past -- and maybe that to save 25-50% on fuel cost. A bunch of people are realizing that going to EV is saving more like 75% or more, and that's without downsizing. So of course EVs were going to become very popular. Just had to get people past the range anxiety and charging unfamiliarity. Now they see that all their neighbors are doing just fine with their new Teslas/etc, and they talk to them about their experience, anxiety goes down, and they sign their name on the waiting list.
- darkteflon 4y ago
  Yeah I think that’s a good explanation of what’s driving current demand, and I suspect that projections as to the future direction of those cost inputs is primarily what’s driving these (widely-publicised) predictive models. But my point wasn’t that “people are buying EVs because they’re cool”, but rather: I bet current projections of future rates of EV adoption underweight the effect of ICE products becoming desperately uncool faster than most expect. It’s just a hunch though.
- 988747 4y ago
  Prices of electricity have spiked as well in Europe, thanks to the war in Ukraine. I just recently read an article saying that in Netherlands it's now more expensive to drive electric car than gasoline powered one.
  - lnsru 4y ago
    I don’t agree. All of my cars consumed ~8 liter petrol/diesel for 100 km. Electric vehicle of the same size needs less than 25 kwh. I agree, that using that very special 250 kW ionity charger petrol car is cheaper. But it’s extreme case. There are enough slower chargers with sane price making electrical vehicles very economic.
- koheripbal 4y ago
  This doesn't take into account the cost of replacing the battery when it degrades over time, and the cost of the much more limited range, and the cost of a much much longer fueling time.
  - rootusrootus 4y ago
    It doesn't account for replacing the engine on the ICE car either, which has about the same schedule as an EV battery. I spent 5-10 minutes of my life every week keeping my last ICE vehicle fueled. I spend 15 seconds a day keeping my EV topped off. I've saved so much time not having to go to the gas station that I still come out waaaaay ahead even if I have to stop for 20-30 minutes to recharge on my road trip.
    - koheripbal 4y ago
      ICE lifespan lasts decades longer than an EV battery with zero degradation on range. I'm still driving my 1992 vehicle today. Your assumption is just wrong.
elif 4y ago
As the infrastructure is in place and battery recycling is maturing, the gotcha arguments holding back culture are evaporating.
asdff 4y ago
So why didn't this happen with the prius?
- darkteflon 4y ago
  We’re in a completely different cultural moment now on climate change, and modern EVs are quite unlike the Prius.
- djaychela 4y ago
  Because a Prius isn't a particularly 'cool' vehicle (my step-son and his friends detest them, and they're pretty into cars), and were widely used as taxis (at least here in the UK), so they have an image problem. Full EVs have a much better reputation with them - even something like my Renault Zoe - because they have zero tailpipe emissions, and even the Zoe is pretty quick and super-smooth in comparison to a comparable ICE vehicle.
- hebrox 4y ago
  It kinda happened, South Park even made an episode about it!
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
A related area is legislation, e.g. banning non-zero emission vehicles from city boundaries. Big cities have had these for a while, but they become more acceptable when people are seen to be doing something that is both wrong and unusual. See the acceleration of smoking bans over time. This is sometimes referred to as "The Inevitable Policy Response" when talking about pricing the value of businesses with carbon-heavy outputs. https://www.unpri.org/sustainability-issues/climate-change/inevitable-policy-response https://www.unpri.org/sustainability-issues/climate-change/i...
Theodores 4y ago
Predictions are just that. Right now it costs more in the Netherlands to charge your electric car than to fill up your petrol car. I never anticipated that could happen. With what is happening in the European energy market this might become the norm, making car buyers not 'make the mistake of buying EV again'.

rootusrootus 4y ago

Plausible, but I always come back to TCO. The real reason EVs are suddenly gaining traction is that prices for gasoline spiked and a lot of people are finally realizing that EVs typically cost much less to fuel. Think about how people suddenly start trading in pickups for compact cars when gas prices have spiked in the past -- and maybe that to save 25-50% on fuel cost. A bunch of people are realizing that going to EV is saving more like 75% or more, and that's without downsizing. So of course EVs were going to become very popular. Just had to get people past the range anxiety and charging unfamiliarity. Now they see that all their neighbors are doing just fine with their new Teslas/etc, and they talk to them about their experience, anxiety goes down, and they sign their name on the waiting list.

darkteflon 4y ago
Yeah I think that’s a good explanation of what’s driving current demand, and I suspect that projections as to the future direction of those cost inputs is primarily what’s driving these (widely-publicised) predictive models. But my point wasn’t that “people are buying EVs because they’re cool”, but rather: I bet current projections of future rates of EV adoption underweight the effect of ICE products becoming desperately uncool faster than most expect. It’s just a hunch though.
988747 4y ago
Prices of electricity have spiked as well in Europe, thanks to the war in Ukraine. I just recently read an article saying that in Netherlands it's now more expensive to drive electric car than gasoline powered one.
- lnsru 4y ago
  I don’t agree. All of my cars consumed ~8 liter petrol/diesel for 100 km. Electric vehicle of the same size needs less than 25 kwh. I agree, that using that very special 250 kW ionity charger petrol car is cheaper. But it’s extreme case. There are enough slower chargers with sane price making electrical vehicles very economic.
koheripbal 4y ago
This doesn't take into account the cost of replacing the battery when it degrades over time, and the cost of the much more limited range, and the cost of a much much longer fueling time.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  It doesn't account for replacing the engine on the ICE car either, which has about the same schedule as an EV battery. I spent 5-10 minutes of my life every week keeping my last ICE vehicle fueled. I spend 15 seconds a day keeping my EV topped off. I've saved so much time not having to go to the gas station that I still come out waaaaay ahead even if I have to stop for 20-30 minutes to recharge on my road trip.
  - koheripbal 4y ago
    ICE lifespan lasts decades longer than an EV battery with zero degradation on range. I'm still driving my 1992 vehicle today. Your assumption is just wrong.

elif 4y ago

As the infrastructure is in place and battery recycling is maturing, the gotcha arguments holding back culture are evaporating.

asdff 4y ago

So why didn't this happen with the prius?

darkteflon 4y ago
We’re in a completely different cultural moment now on climate change, and modern EVs are quite unlike the Prius.
djaychela 4y ago
Because a Prius isn't a particularly 'cool' vehicle (my step-son and his friends detest them, and they're pretty into cars), and were widely used as taxis (at least here in the UK), so they have an image problem. Full EVs have a much better reputation with them - even something like my Renault Zoe - because they have zero tailpipe emissions, and even the Zoe is pretty quick and super-smooth in comparison to a comparable ICE vehicle.
hebrox 4y ago
It kinda happened, South Park even made an episode about it!

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

A related area is legislation, e.g. banning non-zero emission vehicles from city boundaries. Big cities have had these for a while, but they become more acceptable when people are seen to be doing something that is both wrong and unusual. See the acceleration of smoking bans over time. This is sometimes referred to as "The Inevitable Policy Response" when talking about pricing the value of businesses with carbon-heavy outputs. https://www.unpri.org/sustainability-issues/climate-change/inevitable-policy-response https://www.unpri.org/sustainability-issues/climate-change/i...

Theodores 4y ago

Predictions are just that. Right now it costs more in the Netherlands to charge your electric car than to fill up your petrol car. I never anticipated that could happen. With what is happening in the European energy market this might become the norm, making car buyers not 'make the mistake of buying EV again'.