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The map looks to be pretty accurate if I consider my own location except that I should be in the Exceptional Drought instead of Extreme Drought category but rec
by doodlebugging 4y ago
The map looks to be pretty accurate if I consider my own location except that I should be in the Exceptional Drought instead of Extreme Drought category but recognizing that it is highly smoothed and can't show all the bumps, like my place, I can say it is pretty close.
I have tracked and measured rainfall at my place for more than 20 years. So far this year we are still almost 2" (51 mm) below the lowest YTD rainfall total for this date in 20 years. In addition, we are almost 11" (279 mm) below the average YTD rainfall total for this date in the last 20 years.
YTD Numbers from my worksheet for September 4 - Lowest since 2002 14.8" (376 mm); Average since 2002 23.8" (604 mm); Actual YTD 2022 for September 4 - 13" (330 mm)
That's better off than we were 2 weeks ago though. The temperature had been >100F (>37.8C) for weeks and everything had dried out including established trees. My local rainfall totals showed almost 16" (406 mm) below the average YTD rainfall for the date during the last 20 years and more than 7.4" (188 mm) under the lowest YTD rainfall total for that date in the last 20 years.
YTD Numbers from my worksheet for August 22 - Lowest since 2002 14.8" (376 mm); Average since 2002 23.1" (587 mm); Actual YTD 2022 for August 22 - 7.4" (188 mm)
The lowest YTD totals before this year are from 2011.
With temperatures ranging from 85F to 93F (29.4-33.9*C) since the first storm front came through it has been a huge contrast. I am letting everything that will still grow go to seed now. Migratory birds always stop by during the coldest days to eat the berries on the trees and perennials I have planted. Two weeks ago the plants were dormant and appeared dead. They have bloomed and it appears that I may have some set fruit before autumn shuts it all down in a few weeks.
- ijidak 4y agoVery interesting. Where are you located?
- doodlebugging 4y agoNorth Texas, west of Fort Worth between there and Abilene. Where the west begins, LOL.
- hedora 4y agoLucky you. We have land near there. While it did rain this year and fill the tanks (man-made ponds the cows drink from, for coastal folks reading along), we lost most of our topsoil. I've never seen the mesquite / cedar trees and other plants so dead. We have a field for sunflowers that we rent out to dove hunters. The sunflowers are under a foot tall this year (which is unprecedented) so we can't rent it out. I guess the unprecedented wildfires this year also missed you.
- doodlebugging 4y agoTanks are low all over this area. I went by the lake over here the other day because I read it was less than 60% full. There are boats in their docks 10' above the water which is more than 50' from the dock in some spots. I understand the topsoil. I don't have much to lose. That's why I'm in the process of taking this place to full native grasses and plants. My topsoil is less than 6" deep over 80% of my place with solid fossiliferous limestone more than a foot thick under it. The limestone outcrops on all the slopes. I mow twice a year at most so that everything has ample opportunity to go to seed. When the mesquite yellows and drops its leaves in the summer you know its hot. Mine lost 80% of its canopy this summer. The 5.5" of rain we've had in the last couple of weeks is regenerating the trees now though. I have some I've planted nearly 20 years ago that are still under 10' tall. My elms were brick red last week but have now started to drop the dead leaves and sprout new growth. That's a good thing since more than half my trees looked dead. I lost most of my live oaks to oak wilt so I can't afford to lose more of them to drought. I am surrounded by cedar, live oak, and elms with hackberry, bois d'arc, and hercules club too. There's lots of spots for birds here and they still hunt them on the land behind me, deer too. My spot was farmed for a long time and after I bought it I have been killing off everything non-native. My main focus now is on stopping the bermuda grass. It's a slow slog. It took me nearly 10 years to get rid of the Johnson grass but I finally dug all that shit out and clipped the seedheads so now I'm finding less than 10 new plants annually, all sprouting from old seed. I pick a grass or weed and concentrate on eliminating it every year. Restoration by hand is a slow process but the squirrels have returned, crows visit every day, roadrunners nest in the privet thickets, there's a fox and a bobcat that meander through pretty regularly too. It's in much better shape overall. Did the sunflowers not set seed at all or are they just stunted? Even my lantana was dead up till the rain and now it has all sprouted and is trying to set flowers like the sage. The winter birds depend on the lantana berries for food on the coldest days. I was pretty happy to see that pop up. Good luck to you with your place! We're still way behind normal but it all came together just in time to give it all a chance around here. Maybe mother nature is just stringing me along.
- koheripbal 4y agoMy data point is highly exaggerated. The reservoirs here are high, we're on a freshwater river, and no one is talking about drought here - and yet it says Severe drought. I also question the selection of "abnormally dry" as the lowest level. Also, why aren't "abnormally wet" regions shown? ....and what about different colors in the same watershed? Lower areas of a watershed shouldn't be dryer than the highlands.
- doodlebugging 4y agoI wonder what the rainfall cut-offs for the drought level designations are and how much smoothing occurs. I also wonder about the grid used - relatively sparse or regularized and evenly sampled? Is there any weighting applied to specific data sources? It's great that they produce this graphic. It makes me want to find out more about the inputs to the display since those will drive the quality of the output.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- bcrosby95 4y agohttps://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/WhatistheUSDM.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/WhatistheUSDM.aspx What would the point of showing "abnormally wet" be?
- nerdponx 4y agoWhataboutism fuel for climate change arguments.
- DiggyJohnson 4y agoOr just an accurate reporting of the data? This is a confusing comment unless I’m misreading your point.
- myownpetard 4y ago"Abnormally wet" would also be an indication of climate change. As would an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events. Both of which are occurring in some areas.
- LilBytes 4y agoJust wanted to say thank you for including Celsius and freedom units, made it a lot easier for me to understand.
- doodlebugging 4y agoYou're welcome. When I started typing all those numbers it occurred to me that the story would be harder to convey to a large part of HN audience without the conversions. I wanted all the people who read the post to be able to relate to the information.