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This is just a first-order analysis of the problem. Just because the things don't need to happen in an ideal world, doesn't discredit the fact that in our compl

This is just a first-order analysis of the problem. Just because the things don't need to happen in an ideal world, doesn't discredit the fact that in our complex econo-political system, oil/gas companies can lobby to change laws and get out of legal cases, use loop holes in laws, and in particular engage in greenwashing to continue doing net harmful actions. In this case, carbon capture is being used to enhance oil production, i.e. doing more net harm to our world. The second-order analysis here is that unless one has a credible way, that has been demonstrated to work in real life, of stopping oil/gas companies from greenwashing, there is little point in supporting carbon capture technology. Or to make a general point, a technology is worth supporting that when deployed in the real world results in almost immediate and permanent reduction in climate-change effects. If not, don't let the fossil fuel/capitalism lobbies distract you.

godelski 4y ago
> This is just a first-order analysis of the problem. > Just because the things don't need to happen in an ideal world, doesn't discredit the fact that in our complex econo-political system Truth be told, first order analysis (and even second) often gives naive or harmful solutions. Complex problems are complex because they require high order solutions and principle components have relatively low contributions to problems as compared to less complex problems. If you're thinking of complex topics like climate through low order lenses, you're going to get bad results. It is a topic that heavily requires reliance through expert consensus as it is not a topic that even a singular expert cannot fully capture. There is a reason why we call this (one of if not) the largest crisis humanity has ever faced.
btilly 4y ago
The amount of oil being extracted is mostly driven by demand, not supply. Not entirely. After all extra supply means lower prices and therefore increased demand. But demand is fairly inelastic - that's why prices can change so rapidly and consumption remains fairly steady. Therefore the choice of extraction technology makes little difference to how much oil we get. It just affects which marginal wells are worthwhile, and the likelihood of other kinds of environmental damage. Therefore if you inject biofuel instead of water, you really have altered the net result. Not enough to encourage extracting fuel just to store biofuel, but enough to be better than a kick in the teeth. Ideally we'll get to injecting fuel into stopped wells and start undoing damage. And in the meantime, current efforts mean that we'll have the technology when that point comes. And so this activity is on a path towards what we want. (There are similar arguments for natural gas. Natural gas is a natural complement to highly variable renewable energy. So you want to add renewables, add natural gas plans, and use the natural gas to balance the grid. In the long run you replace natural gas with storage such as batteries. But in the short term, natural gas is on a path towards a sustainable future.)

godelski 4y ago

> This is just a first-order analysis of the problem. > Just because the things don't need to happen in an ideal world, doesn't discredit the fact that in our complex econo-political system Truth be told, first order analysis (and even second) often gives naive or harmful solutions. Complex problems are complex because they require high order solutions and principle components have relatively low contributions to problems as compared to less complex problems. If you're thinking of complex topics like climate through low order lenses, you're going to get bad results. It is a topic that heavily requires reliance through expert consensus as it is not a topic that even a singular expert cannot fully capture. There is a reason why we call this (one of if not) the largest crisis humanity has ever faced.

btilly 4y ago

The amount of oil being extracted is mostly driven by demand, not supply. Not entirely. After all extra supply means lower prices and therefore increased demand. But demand is fairly inelastic - that's why prices can change so rapidly and consumption remains fairly steady. Therefore the choice of extraction technology makes little difference to how much oil we get. It just affects which marginal wells are worthwhile, and the likelihood of other kinds of environmental damage. Therefore if you inject biofuel instead of water, you really have altered the net result. Not enough to encourage extracting fuel just to store biofuel, but enough to be better than a kick in the teeth. Ideally we'll get to injecting fuel into stopped wells and start undoing damage. And in the meantime, current efforts mean that we'll have the technology when that point comes. And so this activity is on a path towards what we want. (There are similar arguments for natural gas. Natural gas is a natural complement to highly variable renewable energy. So you want to add renewables, add natural gas plans, and use the natural gas to balance the grid. In the long run you replace natural gas with storage such as batteries. But in the short term, natural gas is on a path towards a sustainable future.)