Methalox ends up being preferable because Hydrogen ends up performing relatively similarly when accounting for the extra tank mass needed to effectively contain

Methalox ends up being preferable because Hydrogen ends up performing relatively similarly when accounting for the extra tank mass needed to effectively contain it (both in terms of thicker walls and larger tanks in general). Methalox can't achieve Hydrogen ISPs but in exchange it's much easier to contain, allowing for much lighter and simpler tanks, resulting in similar deltaV overall. On top of that cryo methane and oxygen are at closer temperatures than hydrogen and oxygen, which simplifies storage further. So effectively the difference is that Hydrogen embrittles everything and makes development more expensive even without reuse considerations, making Methane superior unless you're SLS and being wasteful is a feature.