I'd long assumed that writing success was mostly a function of exponential returns on randomly-assigned initial success[0], so as someone who tries to practice

I'd long assumed that writing success was mostly a function of exponential returns on randomly-assigned initial success[0], so as someone who tries to practice Active Open Mindedness[1], I mentally noted this mere hours ago: > I’m always suspicious that everything is fake and good writers aren’t actually good and it’s just a social conspiracy to believe that they are, but these results are a vote in support of our existing writer-identification-institutions (are they all Substack? I guess it’s just Substack)[2] [0] https://www.princeton.edu/~mjs3/salganik_dodds_watts06_full.pdf https://www.princeton.edu/~mjs3/salganik_dodds_watts06_full.... [1] https://rufuspollock.com/2017/12/10/tetlock-gardner-2015-superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction/#chapter-5---supersmart https://rufuspollock.com/2017/12/10/tetlock-gardner-2015-sup... [2] https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-2022-winners https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-20...