3 ms·

For those who say they would press the red button ... * Imagine the payout on the red button were not $1M but $100K or $50K or $10K. Is there any point as it

by jawns 4y ago

For those who say they would press the red button ... * Imagine the payout on the red button were not $1M but $100K or $50K or $10K. Is there any point as it diminishes toward zero that would make you switch buttons? * Imagine the payout on the green button were not $50M but $100M or $500M or $1B. Is there any point as it increases toward infinity that would make you switch buttons? For those who say they would press the green button ... * Imagine the payout on the red button were not $1M but $2M or $5M or $10M. Is there any point as it increases toward $50M that would make you switch buttons? * Imagine the odds on the green button were not 1:2 but 1:3 or 1:5 or 1:10. At what point, as the odds diminish, would you switch buttons?

ghaff 4y ago
You can certainly fiddle with numbers to the point where you can basically force a given person to go with green or go with red. In general, as you get into certain payouts that aren't a big deal for an individual they'll tend to go with higher expected value at least up to a point. But as the odds get longer, most people will tend to go with certainty as long as it's a reasonable amount.