4 ms·
It is the expected value if multiple people play the game. As I posted in another comment: There are 20 people in line ahead of you. Each one of them hits the
by BeetleB 4y ago
It is the expected value if multiple people play the game. As I posted in another comment:
There are 20 people in line ahead of you. Each one of them hits the green button, and you physically see that half of them made $25 million.
Would you not be tempted to hit the green button?
- kwhitefoot 4y agoNo because each event is independent.
- stale2002 4y agoBut the point is, that we can collect data, based on the information that we observed. The fact that we observed this data, means that this would effect our estimation of the situation.
- kwhitefoot 4y agoOnly if you have reason to believe that the events are not independent. And anyway the way the original scenario is phrased suggests that it is a one off.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- BeetleB 4y agoFair enough. What if you had a 80% chance instead of a 50% chance? 90% chance? I'm sure at some probability before 100% you'd be willing to take that chance.