3 ms·
No it’s not, if you play the game 20 times you’re almost certain to win 50 million and probably a lot more. Unless your utility function is flat after 20 millio
by Bootvis 4y ago
No it’s not, if you play the game 20 times you’re almost certain to win 50 million and probably a lot more. Unless your utility function is flat after 20 million it does matter.
- orlp 4y agoIf you play the game 20 games you'll still be better off pressing the 1 million button 5-10 times, at the start if you don't know in advance how many presses you get, or at the end if you do and haven't won big yet.
- gweinberg 4y agoYou've only got a one in a million chance of losing 20 times in a row. If you lose 19 times in a row, sure you can take the sure million on the last try. But it doesn't make any sense to take the sure million at the beginning.
- ghaff 4y agoIt's an interesting question (assuming you know the number of times you get to play up front). In reality, with these numbers, the best strategy for most people who aren't already very wealthy would probably be to get a sure-fire nest egg and then play the odds. If you have to play the same every time, I'm not sure. Again, with these numbers, the utility function is looking pretty flat after $20 million for the vast majority of people. And "almost certain" != certain.
- anigbrowl 4y agoif you play the game 20 times you’re almost certain to win 50 million You can get any result you want if you just rewrite the problem conditions ◔_◔
- Bootvis 4y agoI replied to someone claiming that you should always go for certainty no matter how many games you play. If you get to play the game 49 times it doesn’t make much sense to go for certainty 49 times because 2^-49 (or 2^-20) is really small.
- jstanley 4y agoAfter you've pushed "give me $1 million" on your first go, your utility function looks very different to how it did before (assuming you're not already a millionaire).