4 ms·

Honestly I'd hit the red button. I'd rather take a guaranteed payoff of my mortgage and all other debt, with plenty left over for a few neat toys, than chance w

• selfhoster11 4y ago
  Exactly. I’m also quite puzzled that nobody mentioned yet that if you were offered a chance like this in real life, it would likely be the only time in your life that you get a chance like that. Unless you get a repeat, or you are rich, it would be foolish to not press the red button.
• BeetleB 4y ago
  I wouldn't, because I can likely pay off my mortgage without it and still have money left over for some toys. My mortgage isn't a big burden. But I can understand it for folks who can't save much due to a mortgage. The problem with the scenario is that the disparity is so high: $1M vs expected value of $25M. 50% is high enough that for people like me, it's clearly a green button option. But how about this: Guaranteed $1M vs a 4% chance of winning $50M. Now the expected value is $2M - still a lot higher than $1M. But ... 4% chance? Suddenly the guaranteed $1M is a lot more attractive.
  • ghaff 4y ago
    The utility function, and to some degree, attitude towards risk is going to differ a lot among individuals. And I imagine that among those reading this here, some are probably going "A million is a nice sum but it's not really life changing whereas $50 million would let me retire right now." And you can scale the numbers up or down and at some point almost everyone will choose red or choose green respectively.
    • im3w1l 4y ago
      Ironically 50 million would make me want to hire people to realize my visions, pulling me out of retirement.