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There’s a fairly obscure video of a symposium that Drake participated in back some time ago, maybe in the 2010s, that was uploaded to YouTube. I think it might
by sammalloy 4y ago
There’s a fairly obscure video of a symposium that Drake participated in back some time ago, maybe in the 2010s, that was uploaded to YouTube. I think it might have taken place in Mountain View. I just went back to look and link to it but I couldn’t find it. Anyway, what’s surprising about the symposium is how much of a skeptical pessimist he is. He was speaking extemporaneously in response to questions, and he basically said, in realist terms, that due to various constraints, we will probably never leave the Solar System as a species, or if we manage to actually do it, we’re not going to get far. The video is kind of sad. I think he also said or implied that something like the Alcubierre drive is never going to happen and we’re basically not going anywhere. I’m probably misstating some of what he said, but that’s the general idea. It’s always stuck with me. It’s certainly possible that he was just having a bad day and woke up on the wrong side of the bed. After all, he has probably been asked these same questions thousands of times, and that might get a bit frustrating.
- Ancalagon 4y agoI think he was just being a realist. FTL travel is essentially just fantasy at this point. Pragmatically we don’t know of any way to make the physics of the Alcubierre drive possible, and there’s nothing to suggest we will. Even getting something like a working generational ship up to say 10% light speed would require technology and levels of cooperation unknown to humanity at this point.
- sammalloy 4y agoI’m sure you’re right, but I couldn’t help but think of Clarke’s first law: > When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
- aaron695 4y ago