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I don't think it's so clear cut. Baumol costs disease already goes a long way, and developers only receive exponential rewards if they have significant equity.
by Bakary 4y ago
I don't think it's so clear cut. Baumol costs disease already goes a long way, and developers only receive exponential rewards if they have significant equity. Some can go solo or succeed at the startup route but they are a minority.
Furthermore, with AI becoming increasingly sophisticated, we might see a seachange in developer salaries with only the most talented and valuable devs getting massive increases and all the rest being made redundant. Leading us back to the low skill/high supply problem.
- geodel 4y agoVery true. I see that bi-modal salary distribution is already happening in many places. In fact at lot of places even pretty good s/w skills might not matter. So there are run-of-the-mill Java/.net/PHP etc developer jobs which will get a low band salary irrespective of actual skill level. And then Reactive/Mobile/Kubernetes/Deep-learning developer jobs which by default are set in higher-band salary. Another thing I think in cloud with pre-packaged solution (not just individual pieces of sw/hw) for most common situations and metered billing, providers are going to take major chunks of IT budgets. It would be similar to past when hardware cost was high so developer would get lower portion of overall budget. In my mind the era of on-prem systems, custom solutions with high paying FTE jobs is coming to an end. And the myth developers are kings is going to go away along with that. Yeah, 1-2 per cent of total IT workforce working for cloud providers will be compensated well. Remaining 95% will be either short term gigs or low pay FTE jobs called Cloud Connectivity Developer II and so on.