4 ms·

Australia has to “kowtow” to whoever is the dominant naval power. Once Britain, now the US, perhaps in the next 100 years it will be China.

hilbert42 4y ago
Unfortunately, that's my current thinking. Reckon if we got into the Tardis and went there it'd take a research effort to recognize that we were actually in the same country!
barrysteve 4y ago
In the next 100yrs the north polar ice will melt enough that China can go around the top to it's trading partners. The strait of Malacca next to Malaysia will stop being as critically important as it is now to China's oil imports. It's likely the SEA region will cool off, the action will move up north and all those subs we bought will go from AUKUS to AWKWARD. Aus just needs to cut costs and forward into quality (koalaity?) manufacturing and science. Or we could just keep ripping up the ground like a bulldozer on a bender and hope China doesn't tank the iron ore price.
- throwawaylinux 4y ago
  If the sea level rises by the projected 1.3m by 2100, what routes exactly would open up? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Malacca#/media/File:Strait_of_malacca.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Malacca#/media/File:...
  - barrysteve 4y ago
    I know it's kind of rude just to leave you with a link, sorry. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISHHe1Hu6d4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISHHe1Hu6d4 Skim this video, it shows slowly and clearly the potential change of routes.
    - throwawaylinux 4y ago
      Oh, I didn't read your post properly. For some reason I thought you were talking about routes opening due to sea level rising. The northern sea route is not given the same scrutiny as the strait in that video though. Clearly if western allies were blockading China's sea trade at choke points, the sea route has some fairly obvious problems. It's the defensible inland routes which will be the most important. To that end, the push to expand NATO into Ukraine almost could not have gone better for China if they had orchestrated it.

hilbert42 4y ago

Unfortunately, that's my current thinking. Reckon if we got into the Tardis and went there it'd take a research effort to recognize that we were actually in the same country!

barrysteve 4y ago

In the next 100yrs the north polar ice will melt enough that China can go around the top to it's trading partners. The strait of Malacca next to Malaysia will stop being as critically important as it is now to China's oil imports. It's likely the SEA region will cool off, the action will move up north and all those subs we bought will go from AUKUS to AWKWARD. Aus just needs to cut costs and forward into quality (koalaity?) manufacturing and science. Or we could just keep ripping up the ground like a bulldozer on a bender and hope China doesn't tank the iron ore price.

throwawaylinux 4y ago
If the sea level rises by the projected 1.3m by 2100, what routes exactly would open up? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Malacca#/media/File:Strait_of_malacca.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Malacca#/media/File:...
- barrysteve 4y ago
  I know it's kind of rude just to leave you with a link, sorry. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISHHe1Hu6d4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISHHe1Hu6d4 Skim this video, it shows slowly and clearly the potential change of routes.
  - throwawaylinux 4y ago
    Oh, I didn't read your post properly. For some reason I thought you were talking about routes opening due to sea level rising. The northern sea route is not given the same scrutiny as the strait in that video though. Clearly if western allies were blockading China's sea trade at choke points, the sea route has some fairly obvious problems. It's the defensible inland routes which will be the most important. To that end, the push to expand NATO into Ukraine almost could not have gone better for China if they had orchestrated it.