I think the only way is a reliable third party (like the booking company) where the customer still owns the money but it is temporal locked for the airline till

I think the only way is a reliable third party (like the booking company) where the customer still owns the money but it is temporal locked for the airline till like flight + 1h or so. Like the airline has a guarantee that the money shows up at the moment where it is needed and in doubt we could also have a system where the no-show fee can be "sub-locked". The consumer on the other hand, never waives the money over until he is needed to (by confirming to the no-show or actually flying). Similar systems exists for example for Visa guarantees. Interestingly, considering other success rates the airline should do they same for their punishment if they cancel ;)