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> A truly open facet of Android — the open-source codebase, minus Google’s apps — has enabled one company with a strong market position to step in, effectively

> A truly open facet of Android — the open-source codebase, minus Google’s apps — has enabled one company with a strong market position to step in, effectively close it, and make themselves the gatekeeper. And as gatekeepers go, Apple looks quite benevolent by comparison. Wow, he's almost as bad as Gruber. Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future?

fpgeek 15y ago
Indeed. He casually dismisses side-loading before claiming Apple is a relatively benevolent dictator, completely forgetting (or not realizing) that (among other things) side-loading is how the Amazon Appstore got started in the first place.
- ianstormtaylor 15y ago
  Are you really trying to suggest that the majority (or even a decently sized minority for that matter) of Kindle Fire owners will know how to and actually go to the trouble of side-loading apps onto their device? Just like a majority of iPhone users don't install their apps through the App Store... oh wait.
  - fpgeek 15y ago
    Side-loading on the Kindle Fire is no harder than it is on your typical Android phone. A significant portion of Kindle Fire owners will side-load apps if someone gives them an incentive to. Given that, I expect that side-loading on the Kindle Fire will be as insignificant as side-loading has been on Android phones. After all, it isn't like phone side-loading helped a company build an app store that they later married to their other content services to make a rich ecosystem for a new tablet, now is it? Oh, wait...
  - bookwormAT 15y ago
    I remember all these people who told me that no web browser will ever gain market share on Internet Explorer, because "Dude, it's preinstalled on their computers" and "people don't even know what a browser is". I sometimes wonder how the world would look like today if Steve Ballmer had the power back then to simply reject Firefox. Or if Apple had to ask Sony for permission to release a new smartphone.
switz 15y ago
I don't think he despises Android as much as he really just doesn't see a viable market. Why spend twice as much (if not more) time developing for something when he surely won't see double the profits. Also, if he takes longer developing for Android, then the iPhone updates will be slower and slower and he'll lose customers.
airlocksoftware 15y ago
Seriously. This is a completely ridiculous prediction. I'm not saying it's actually likely, but I see a greater chance that things will go the other way: i.e., Amazon will open up the Fire (or future devices) to work with the Android Market.
- rbarooah 15y ago
  What's your reasoning for it being 'ridiculous'? It seems reasonably that the fire could outsell all the other Android tablets combined by 2x, possibly even in its first quarter of existence. Amazon has a great brand and distribution channel, and the Fire is very good value for money. It also seems quite reasonable to suggest that Fire owners may well purchase apps at a significantly higher rater than other Android tablet owners or even Android phone owners. Why? Because the Fire is all about buying content, and the apps are presented in the same context. Also, Amazon's store may work better than the Google's one. These aren't foregone conclusions, but they seem quite reasonable. If these two things work out, then Amazon's app store could easily end up being the channel for most Android app revenue. Then, it would be an easy decision for app developers to target the Amazon store first.
  - EwanToo 15y ago
    The Kindle Fire could outsell other Android tablets combined by 10x, and it'd still be outsold 10x by Android phones, and that's what makes it fairly ridiculous. It's not that the Kindle Fire isn't a great product, it's that it's not relevant to the primary Android market - cheaper smart phones for the 99% of people around the world who can't afford an iPhone.
    - rbarooah 15y ago
      It would be interesting to see what proportion of apps are bought by people who buy the low end Android phones that are actually cheaper than iPhones. I suspect the answer is not many.
      - EwanToo 15y ago
andrewfelix 15y ago
Also a very US-centric take. Apple and Android Market apps are available outside of the States. As of today I still can't get legitimate access to much of what Amazon has to offer (I'm in Australia)
benatkin 15y ago
> Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future? I'm pretty sure that the average technically-inclined Android user knows more about the Android than the average technically-inclined iPhone user. But Marco's experience building and successfully marketing mobile apps skews it quite a bit. Also it's quite common to be familiar with something you despise, for instance in war people become familiar with the enemy. Finally, to answer your question, he made the prediction because he thinks a lot. He shared it because he didn't see anyone else saying it. If numerous Android experts were already saying it, I don't think he would have bothered.
- sceptre 15y ago
  Well... another day and another android post by another Apphole. and one more defending it..
dlikhten 15y ago
TBH I can't stand the amazon app store. The only reason it's still installed is because I have like 2 free apps that I use daily (SwiftKey X and sometimes QuickOffice Pro) the free apps mostly suck anyways, and the annoyance generated is extreme. Google market's superiority is pretty big. Problem is that its not Amazon.

fpgeek 15y ago

Indeed. He casually dismisses side-loading before claiming Apple is a relatively benevolent dictator, completely forgetting (or not realizing) that (among other things) side-loading is how the Amazon Appstore got started in the first place.

ianstormtaylor 15y ago
Are you really trying to suggest that the majority (or even a decently sized minority for that matter) of Kindle Fire owners will know how to and actually go to the trouble of side-loading apps onto their device? Just like a majority of iPhone users don't install their apps through the App Store... oh wait.
- fpgeek 15y ago
  Side-loading on the Kindle Fire is no harder than it is on your typical Android phone. A significant portion of Kindle Fire owners will side-load apps if someone gives them an incentive to. Given that, I expect that side-loading on the Kindle Fire will be as insignificant as side-loading has been on Android phones. After all, it isn't like phone side-loading helped a company build an app store that they later married to their other content services to make a rich ecosystem for a new tablet, now is it? Oh, wait...
- bookwormAT 15y ago
  I remember all these people who told me that no web browser will ever gain market share on Internet Explorer, because "Dude, it's preinstalled on their computers" and "people don't even know what a browser is". I sometimes wonder how the world would look like today if Steve Ballmer had the power back then to simply reject Firefox. Or if Apple had to ask Sony for permission to release a new smartphone.

switz 15y ago

I don't think he despises Android as much as he really just doesn't see a viable market. Why spend twice as much (if not more) time developing for something when he surely won't see double the profits. Also, if he takes longer developing for Android, then the iPhone updates will be slower and slower and he'll lose customers.

airlocksoftware 15y ago

Seriously. This is a completely ridiculous prediction. I'm not saying it's actually likely, but I see a greater chance that things will go the other way: i.e., Amazon will open up the Fire (or future devices) to work with the Android Market.

rbarooah 15y ago
What's your reasoning for it being 'ridiculous'? It seems reasonably that the fire could outsell all the other Android tablets combined by 2x, possibly even in its first quarter of existence. Amazon has a great brand and distribution channel, and the Fire is very good value for money. It also seems quite reasonable to suggest that Fire owners may well purchase apps at a significantly higher rater than other Android tablet owners or even Android phone owners. Why? Because the Fire is all about buying content, and the apps are presented in the same context. Also, Amazon's store may work better than the Google's one. These aren't foregone conclusions, but they seem quite reasonable. If these two things work out, then Amazon's app store could easily end up being the channel for most Android app revenue. Then, it would be an easy decision for app developers to target the Amazon store first.
- EwanToo 15y ago
  The Kindle Fire could outsell other Android tablets combined by 10x, and it'd still be outsold 10x by Android phones, and that's what makes it fairly ridiculous. It's not that the Kindle Fire isn't a great product, it's that it's not relevant to the primary Android market - cheaper smart phones for the 99% of people around the world who can't afford an iPhone.
  - rbarooah 15y ago
    It would be interesting to see what proportion of apps are bought by people who buy the low end Android phones that are actually cheaper than iPhones. I suspect the answer is not many.
    - EwanToo 15y ago

andrewfelix 15y ago

Also a very US-centric take. Apple and Android Market apps are available outside of the States. As of today I still can't get legitimate access to much of what Amazon has to offer (I'm in Australia)

benatkin 15y ago

> Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future? I'm pretty sure that the average technically-inclined Android user knows more about the Android than the average technically-inclined iPhone user. But Marco's experience building and successfully marketing mobile apps skews it quite a bit. Also it's quite common to be familiar with something you despise, for instance in war people become familiar with the enemy. Finally, to answer your question, he made the prediction because he thinks a lot. He shared it because he didn't see anyone else saying it. If numerous Android experts were already saying it, I don't think he would have bothered.

sceptre 15y ago
Well... another day and another android post by another Apphole. and one more defending it..

dlikhten 15y ago

TBH I can't stand the amazon app store. The only reason it's still installed is because I have like 2 free apps that I use daily (SwiftKey X and sometimes QuickOffice Pro) the free apps mostly suck anyways, and the annoyance generated is extreme. Google market's superiority is pretty big. Problem is that its not Amazon.