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Modern versions of this type of person exist, they're just pessimistic. The latest rising star in this category I've encountered is Peter Zeihan, a man who writ
by Hermitian909 4y ago
Modern versions of this type of person exist, they're just pessimistic. The latest rising star in this category I've encountered is Peter Zeihan, a man who writes extensively about geopolitics and forecasts a great deal of doom and gloom (though America will be fine, he says, which helps his sales I'm sure). IIRC his latest book was one of the best-selling non-fiction books this year.
He's funny, explains complex topics in a way that's understandable to lay people, and gives the impression of knowing his business quite well.
In reality, the vast majority of his predictions over the past two decades have not come true e.g. saying China, Russia, and Canada would all break up by 2020. He is also wrong about specific technical claims e.g. how efficient certain renewable technologies can be in different locales (I have enough of a background to check some of these figures by hand).
- blix 4y ago> In reality, the vast majority of his predictions over the past two decades have not come true e.g. saying China, Russia, and Canada would all break up by 2020. Two decades? Is there some other source for these predictions other than the book series he kicked off 8 years ago? The claims in his 2014 book are much more measured: - Russia needs to deal with Ukraine by 2020 (one of his few concrete timelines, a couple years off) - Increased Albertan autonomy will enter mainsteam political discussion (Danielle Smith) - China will run into issues from an unstable financial system (Evergrande) I think it's clear his background is not technical, he's more than a little hyperbolic, but I don't think he does as poorly as you mark him. Unless he has some other more aggressive set of predictions than the ones I've found, he still has a good 30 years before he can safely be called a hack.