7 ms·

Prediction: Amazon will take over Android app distribution

51 points by switz 15y ago

raldi 15y ago
It would have been nice if you'd prepended "Prediction: " to your headline.
nhangen 15y ago
I agree. I've been waiting for this moment since the Android launched. Where the Google version of the Android store has started to get the ball rolling, Amazon's 1 click purchase is going to take that snowball and turn it into an avalanche. Granted, I'm still an iOS dev at heart, but I'm jumping into Android dev (for Amazon) with both feet.
Tichy 15y ago
So there will be an Amazon phone soon?
kgutteridge 15y ago
Inclined to agree Amazon might garner a substantial lead for Android tablet app distribution, but theres still an awful lot of phones, compared to tablets and I for one cannot see this changing in the short term. One good thing to note is Android 4.0, is asking for credit card details on initial start up now, so hopefully paid users++ when it comes to the Google Market, which might also help quell the myth of Android users "don't buy apps" which I feel at the moment is self reinforcing by the fact most published apps choose to ad support
- fpgeek 15y ago
  Beyond that, Ice Cream Sandwich unifies "phone" and "tablet" apps (a distinction that already makes much less sense in an era with large, 720p "phones"). That completely changes his inferred dynamics of the Android app stores. I think the Android Market and the Amazon Appstore (and GetJar and Handango and ...) and direct sales from developers will happily coexist for the foreseeable future.
  - notatoad 15y ago
    The distinction between phone and tablet apps on android has always been pretty blurry, ICS is about unifying the operating system features, not the apps. Talking about a 'tablet app store' is silly, even ignoring ice cream sandwich.
    - fpgeek 15y ago
      I agree talking about a "tablet app store" is silly (note the quotes around "phone" and "tablet") since many Android apps scale quite nicely for both form factors and more will with time, but, sadly, the Honeycomb detour confused people (especially for iOS-influenced outsiders).
mikedougherty 15y ago
You'll have to get developers on board, I think. http://shiftyjelly.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/amazon-app-store-rotten-to-the-core/ http://shiftyjelly.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/amazon-app-store...
- res0nat0r 15y ago
  I really wish this blog post would quit being passed around as Amazon screwing every developer in the world over. I don't know how you can rationally believe that they would offer to give your app away to thousands of people who have no intention of spending any money on the app besides the fact that it is free for the day, and just handing over free cash based on the random number of people who clicked 'download' that day. The whole point of being featured as the Free App of The Day is for exposure. Not monetary handouts.
  - mikedougherty 15y ago
    I'm not expecting Amazon to hand out money to developers. But, as a developer* , I don't want to put myself in a situation where my work (that I would have otherwise charged for) is being given away for free. Conversely, as a user, if there aren't quality free apps in the amazon store, why would I use it in the first place? I can get the same content from the built-in Market. So, from both a developer and user standpoint I see no reason why Amazon should "take over Android app distribution". * Hypothetical, I don't develop for mobile at this time.
zrgiu_ 15y ago
There is no way amazon's few millions of tablets can compete with the hundred of millions of phones AND tablets that come with Google apps preinstalled. To say that amazon will take over android app distribution is a very very far stretch. Comparison of downloads for one of my apps: Android Market: 25.000 downloads / day Amazon AppStore: 50 downloads / day I'll believe that Amazon's AppStore is big (for everyone, not just for the daily featured app) when I see it.
- earl 15y ago
  Amazon AppStore is, I believe, the biggest android tablet app store. And growing. If you believe numbers that come from Gruber (and his math seems reasonable), as of July there were roughly 1.2MM android tablets [1]. Kindle Fire has sold, or will this quarter, 6MM units [2]. Thus Marco's hypothesis seems reasonable: (1) if you want to make money on android tablets, you have to go where the tablets are. That is Amazon's appstore. They are, by volume, already 3-4 times the rest of the android tablet market. And this gap will probably continue to row. I would be surprised if, by this time next year, they do not have 10-15 times the marketshare of any other android tablet. Remember every other android tablet manufacturer has to make money on the tablet. Amazon probably loses money in order to make it back when you buy books, movies, magazines, music, etc, from them. Thus their tablet will almost certainly be cheaper, and hence more common, than any other android tablet. (2) this will bootstrap their presence on android phones, especially once they release their rumored android phone. Which will be shitty but really really cheap (my prediction). [1] http://mobilechannels.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=328:how-many-android-tablets-out-there-&catid=60&Itemid=121 http://mobilechannels.eu/index.php?option=com_content&vi... [2] http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57327907-64/amazon-kindle-fire-shipments-upped-to-6-million-in-quarter/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57327907-64/amazon-kindle-...
  - fpgeek 15y ago
    Even if you ignore all of the issues with Gruber's math (non-Honeycomb tablets matter a great deal, for instance, especially when you're trying to understand the impact of the Kindle Fire), as of July is a very, very out-of-date number. As of the beginning if November, ASUS alone has sold 1.2 million Transformers [1]. A better number is 6 million Android tablets (from Andy Rubin at AsiaD) [2], though that still leaves out important slices of the Android tablet market like the B&N Nooks. Putting this together, if Amazon hits their (rumored) goal of selling over 5 million Kindle Fires, they'll certainly get a substantial slice of the Android tablet market and quite possibly a majority among US users (depending on what you count, like Nooks). Nevertheless, there will still be a larger slice of Android tablets with Google services and the Android Market, and the Android Market will be dominant outside the US (e.g. if you believe the NPD numbers ASUS might well have sold over 90% of their tablets outside the US [3]). [1] http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/asus_eyes_18_million_tablet_shipments_2011 http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/asus_eyes_18_million_t... [2] http://www.theverge.com/2011/10/19/2500959/6-million-android-tablet-andy-rubin http://www.theverge.com/2011/10/19/2500959/6-million-android... [3] http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/11/22/npd.shows.hp.leading.us.tablets.for.most.of.2011/ http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/11/22/npd.shows.hp.l...
fpgeek 15y ago
Um, the Amazon Appstore will have limited relevance as long as it is US-only. Even the number of people who will sideload apps onto their Kindle Fires will dwarf the number of people who figure out how to get to Amazon's Appstore outside the US.
- foobarbazetc 15y ago
  Why would anyone want the Amazon Appstore? It's horrible.
  - fpgeek 15y ago
    Free App of the Day, mostly. There are also a few exclusives, though, like the official "Super Why" app (which my toddler adores).
w1ntermute 15y ago
> A truly open facet of Android — the open-source codebase, minus Google’s apps — has enabled one company with a strong market position to step in, effectively close it, and make themselves the gatekeeper. And as gatekeepers go, Apple looks quite benevolent by comparison. Wow, he's almost as bad as Gruber. Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future?
- fpgeek 15y ago
  Indeed. He casually dismisses side-loading before claiming Apple is a relatively benevolent dictator, completely forgetting (or not realizing) that (among other things) side-loading is how the Amazon Appstore got started in the first place.
  - ianstormtaylor 15y ago
    Are you really trying to suggest that the majority (or even a decently sized minority for that matter) of Kindle Fire owners will know how to and actually go to the trouble of side-loading apps onto their device? Just like a majority of iPhone users don't install their apps through the App Store... oh wait.
    - fpgeek 15y ago
      Side-loading on the Kindle Fire is no harder than it is on your typical Android phone. A significant portion of Kindle Fire owners will side-load apps if someone gives them an incentive to. Given that, I expect that side-loading on the Kindle Fire will be as insignificant as side-loading has been on Android phones. After all, it isn't like phone side-loading helped a company build an app store that they later married to their other content services to make a rich ecosystem for a new tablet, now is it? Oh, wait...
    - bookwormAT 15y ago
      I remember all these people who told me that no web browser will ever gain market share on Internet Explorer, because "Dude, it's preinstalled on their computers" and "people don't even know what a browser is". I sometimes wonder how the world would look like today if Steve Ballmer had the power back then to simply reject Firefox. Or if Apple had to ask Sony for permission to release a new smartphone.
mrschwabe 15y ago
Excellent assessment. Can't see it happening on the scale you have suggested, since it is unlikely Google will ever lose influence on more than half the marketshare of the Android app ecosystem.... Yet another equally plausible scenario would be an eventual deal between Amazon and Google. In wherby Amazon would acquire / take-over the Android brand and replace Google's role as leader of this platform. Cause some of us have a suspicion that Google will eventually transition their focus to 100% Chrome anyway; 'dropping Android' and/or selling whatever control it currently has on it to another company. Amazon seems ready.
- bad_user 15y ago
  Google giving up on Android for Chrome makes no sense. Taking control away from other companies over the future of mobile phones is the biggest reason why Google released Android, a genius move nonetheless. It's the same reason why they have been paying shitloads of money to Mozilla, it's the same reason why they released Chrome ... to make Google's search the default. And Chrome is nice and all, with Chrome OS being an interesting experiment, but the importance of Chrome pales in comparison with Android - their biggest success since GMail. I also do not think Amazon will take over anything. The power of Android comes from being used by multiple vendors. That's the reason why Android exceeded iOS in numbers. Really, what makes anybody think that Amazon can do better than Apple?
deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
dave1619 15y ago
Amazon also has an app review process that slows down development for developers. This will keep many developers preferring the Android Market.
- TheCowboy 15y ago
  Unfortunately, it may not be developers who decide which one succeeds. If Amazon becomes the place where the money is, then there will be no avoiding it by developers.
- estel 15y ago
  As a developer, I've had horrible, horrible experiences with the Amazon Appstore that will keep me away for many months yet; with apps being rejected and moved through all stages of the feedback process without so much as a whimper of feedback from Amazon. Genuinely the worst "customer" experience I can recall.
bad_user 15y ago
In regards to this prediction, there's an elephant in the room. The power of Android comes from it being used by multiple vendors. That's the reason why it exceeded iOS in numbers. And tablets sales are not so flattering, but I'm already seeing Samsung doing a pretty good job and I'm sure others will jump in. So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple? This makes no sense.
- simonw 15y ago
  "So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple?" I don't know if they'll do better than apple, but the Fire is half the price of an iPad and is being heavily promoted to Amazon's enormous user base in the run up to Christmas.
  - bad_user 15y ago
    I have no doubt the Kindle Fire will be a success, but we are talking here about Amazon overtaking the Android's app distribution, as if Amazon could do that by any stretch of imagination. So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple? This is relevant, because for Amazon to take charge, either one of these 2 things have to happen: (1) Amazon should be so successful as to make irrelevant the other Android device makers OR (2) Amazon should make the device makers use their own Appstore I'm not seeing (2) happening and as far as (1) is concerned, what can Amazon do that Apple couldn't? If price is the only issue, that didn't stop expensive Galaxy S phones from being sold, in spite of iTunes and in spite of a general consensus that iPhones are better.
foobarbazetc 15y ago
I fucking hope not. Amazon are the most developer-hostile company in existence. They make Apple's App Store look like a utopia of freedom and openness.
shareme 15y ago
He forgot one major point.. Google Appstore is slightly curated to remove harmful apps by a system built by skilled engineers. Amazon has no system setup to scan for harmful apps and to remove them from their market. And.. yeah there is an and..Kindle Fire is a tablet bastardization in that its a tablet off the phone code base not android 4.0..that means some app rewriting to put it in the Amazon store as Amazon does not use Google services such as License verification, Google maps, etc. The offer by amazon to developers would have to be very compelling to get developers to spend time rewriting applications. That offer is not compelling yet.. Its more likely that the two parties would partner to do android app distribution rather than Amazon taking over..

51 points by switz 15y ago

raldi 15y ago

It would have been nice if you'd prepended "Prediction: " to your headline.

I agree. I've been waiting for this moment since the Android launched. Where the Google version of the Android store has started to get the ball rolling, Amazon's 1 click purchase is going to take that snowball and turn it into an avalanche. Granted, I'm still an iOS dev at heart, but I'm jumping into Android dev (for Amazon) with both feet.

Tichy 15y ago

So there will be an Amazon phone soon?

kgutteridge 15y ago

Inclined to agree Amazon might garner a substantial lead for Android tablet app distribution, but theres still an awful lot of phones, compared to tablets and I for one cannot see this changing in the short term. One good thing to note is Android 4.0, is asking for credit card details on initial start up now, so hopefully paid users++ when it comes to the Google Market, which might also help quell the myth of Android users "don't buy apps" which I feel at the moment is self reinforcing by the fact most published apps choose to ad support

fpgeek 15y ago
Beyond that, Ice Cream Sandwich unifies "phone" and "tablet" apps (a distinction that already makes much less sense in an era with large, 720p "phones"). That completely changes his inferred dynamics of the Android app stores. I think the Android Market and the Amazon Appstore (and GetJar and Handango and ...) and direct sales from developers will happily coexist for the foreseeable future.
- notatoad 15y ago
  The distinction between phone and tablet apps on android has always been pretty blurry, ICS is about unifying the operating system features, not the apps. Talking about a 'tablet app store' is silly, even ignoring ice cream sandwich.
  - fpgeek 15y ago
    I agree talking about a "tablet app store" is silly (note the quotes around "phone" and "tablet") since many Android apps scale quite nicely for both form factors and more will with time, but, sadly, the Honeycomb detour confused people (especially for iOS-influenced outsiders).

mikedougherty 15y ago

You'll have to get developers on board, I think. http://shiftyjelly.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/amazon-app-store-rotten-to-the-core/ http://shiftyjelly.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/amazon-app-store...

res0nat0r 15y ago
I really wish this blog post would quit being passed around as Amazon screwing every developer in the world over. I don't know how you can rationally believe that they would offer to give your app away to thousands of people who have no intention of spending any money on the app besides the fact that it is free for the day, and just handing over free cash based on the random number of people who clicked 'download' that day. The whole point of being featured as the Free App of The Day is for exposure. Not monetary handouts.
- mikedougherty 15y ago
  I'm not expecting Amazon to hand out money to developers. But, as a developer* , I don't want to put myself in a situation where my work (that I would have otherwise charged for) is being given away for free. Conversely, as a user, if there aren't quality free apps in the amazon store, why would I use it in the first place? I can get the same content from the built-in Market. So, from both a developer and user standpoint I see no reason why Amazon should "take over Android app distribution". * Hypothetical, I don't develop for mobile at this time.

zrgiu_ 15y ago

There is no way amazon's few millions of tablets can compete with the hundred of millions of phones AND tablets that come with Google apps preinstalled. To say that amazon will take over android app distribution is a very very far stretch. Comparison of downloads for one of my apps: Android Market: 25.000 downloads / day Amazon AppStore: 50 downloads / day I'll believe that Amazon's AppStore is big (for everyone, not just for the daily featured app) when I see it.

earl 15y ago
Amazon AppStore is, I believe, the biggest android tablet app store. And growing. If you believe numbers that come from Gruber (and his math seems reasonable), as of July there were roughly 1.2MM android tablets [1]. Kindle Fire has sold, or will this quarter, 6MM units [2]. Thus Marco's hypothesis seems reasonable: (1) if you want to make money on android tablets, you have to go where the tablets are. That is Amazon's appstore. They are, by volume, already 3-4 times the rest of the android tablet market. And this gap will probably continue to row. I would be surprised if, by this time next year, they do not have 10-15 times the marketshare of any other android tablet. Remember every other android tablet manufacturer has to make money on the tablet. Amazon probably loses money in order to make it back when you buy books, movies, magazines, music, etc, from them. Thus their tablet will almost certainly be cheaper, and hence more common, than any other android tablet. (2) this will bootstrap their presence on android phones, especially once they release their rumored android phone. Which will be shitty but really really cheap (my prediction). [1] http://mobilechannels.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=328:how-many-android-tablets-out-there-&catid=60&Itemid=121 http://mobilechannels.eu/index.php?option=com_content&vi... [2] http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57327907-64/amazon-kindle-fire-shipments-upped-to-6-million-in-quarter/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-57327907-64/amazon-kindle-...
- fpgeek 15y ago
  Even if you ignore all of the issues with Gruber's math (non-Honeycomb tablets matter a great deal, for instance, especially when you're trying to understand the impact of the Kindle Fire), as of July is a very, very out-of-date number. As of the beginning if November, ASUS alone has sold 1.2 million Transformers [1]. A better number is 6 million Android tablets (from Andy Rubin at AsiaD) [2], though that still leaves out important slices of the Android tablet market like the B&N Nooks. Putting this together, if Amazon hits their (rumored) goal of selling over 5 million Kindle Fires, they'll certainly get a substantial slice of the Android tablet market and quite possibly a majority among US users (depending on what you count, like Nooks). Nevertheless, there will still be a larger slice of Android tablets with Google services and the Android Market, and the Android Market will be dominant outside the US (e.g. if you believe the NPD numbers ASUS might well have sold over 90% of their tablets outside the US [3]). [1] http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/asus_eyes_18_million_tablet_shipments_2011 http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/asus_eyes_18_million_t... [2] http://www.theverge.com/2011/10/19/2500959/6-million-android-tablet-andy-rubin http://www.theverge.com/2011/10/19/2500959/6-million-android... [3] http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/11/22/npd.shows.hp.leading.us.tablets.for.most.of.2011/ http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/11/22/npd.shows.hp.l...

fpgeek 15y ago

Um, the Amazon Appstore will have limited relevance as long as it is US-only. Even the number of people who will sideload apps onto their Kindle Fires will dwarf the number of people who figure out how to get to Amazon's Appstore outside the US.

foobarbazetc 15y ago
Why would anyone want the Amazon Appstore? It's horrible.
- fpgeek 15y ago
  Free App of the Day, mostly. There are also a few exclusives, though, like the official "Super Why" app (which my toddler adores).

w1ntermute 15y ago

> A truly open facet of Android — the open-source codebase, minus Google’s apps — has enabled one company with a strong market position to step in, effectively close it, and make themselves the gatekeeper. And as gatekeepers go, Apple looks quite benevolent by comparison. Wow, he's almost as bad as Gruber. Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future?

fpgeek 15y ago
Indeed. He casually dismisses side-loading before claiming Apple is a relatively benevolent dictator, completely forgetting (or not realizing) that (among other things) side-loading is how the Amazon Appstore got started in the first place.
- ianstormtaylor 15y ago
  Are you really trying to suggest that the majority (or even a decently sized minority for that matter) of Kindle Fire owners will know how to and actually go to the trouble of side-loading apps onto their device? Just like a majority of iPhone users don't install their apps through the App Store... oh wait.
  - fpgeek 15y ago
    Side-loading on the Kindle Fire is no harder than it is on your typical Android phone. A significant portion of Kindle Fire owners will side-load apps if someone gives them an incentive to. Given that, I expect that side-loading on the Kindle Fire will be as insignificant as side-loading has been on Android phones. After all, it isn't like phone side-loading helped a company build an app store that they later married to their other content services to make a rich ecosystem for a new tablet, now is it? Oh, wait...
  - bookwormAT 15y ago
    I remember all these people who told me that no web browser will ever gain market share on Internet Explorer, because "Dude, it's preinstalled on their computers" and "people don't even know what a browser is". I sometimes wonder how the world would look like today if Steve Ballmer had the power back then to simply reject Firefox. Or if Apple had to ask Sony for permission to release a new smartphone.

mrschwabe 15y ago

Excellent assessment. Can't see it happening on the scale you have suggested, since it is unlikely Google will ever lose influence on more than half the marketshare of the Android app ecosystem.... Yet another equally plausible scenario would be an eventual deal between Amazon and Google. In wherby Amazon would acquire / take-over the Android brand and replace Google's role as leader of this platform. Cause some of us have a suspicion that Google will eventually transition their focus to 100% Chrome anyway; 'dropping Android' and/or selling whatever control it currently has on it to another company. Amazon seems ready.

bad_user 15y ago
Google giving up on Android for Chrome makes no sense. Taking control away from other companies over the future of mobile phones is the biggest reason why Google released Android, a genius move nonetheless. It's the same reason why they have been paying shitloads of money to Mozilla, it's the same reason why they released Chrome ... to make Google's search the default. And Chrome is nice and all, with Chrome OS being an interesting experiment, but the importance of Chrome pales in comparison with Android - their biggest success since GMail. I also do not think Amazon will take over anything. The power of Android comes from being used by multiple vendors. That's the reason why Android exceeded iOS in numbers. Really, what makes anybody think that Amazon can do better than Apple?

deleted 15y ago

[deleted]

dave1619 15y ago

Amazon also has an app review process that slows down development for developers. This will keep many developers preferring the Android Market.

TheCowboy 15y ago
Unfortunately, it may not be developers who decide which one succeeds. If Amazon becomes the place where the money is, then there will be no avoiding it by developers.
estel 15y ago
As a developer, I've had horrible, horrible experiences with the Amazon Appstore that will keep me away for many months yet; with apps being rejected and moved through all stages of the feedback process without so much as a whimper of feedback from Amazon. Genuinely the worst "customer" experience I can recall.

bad_user 15y ago

In regards to this prediction, there's an elephant in the room. The power of Android comes from it being used by multiple vendors. That's the reason why it exceeded iOS in numbers. And tablets sales are not so flattering, but I'm already seeing Samsung doing a pretty good job and I'm sure others will jump in. So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple? This makes no sense.

simonw 15y ago
"So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple?" I don't know if they'll do better than apple, but the Fire is half the price of an iPad and is being heavily promoted to Amazon's enormous user base in the run up to Christmas.
- bad_user 15y ago
  I have no doubt the Kindle Fire will be a success, but we are talking here about Amazon overtaking the Android's app distribution, as if Amazon could do that by any stretch of imagination. So what makes anybody think that Amazon will do better than Apple? This is relevant, because for Amazon to take charge, either one of these 2 things have to happen: (1) Amazon should be so successful as to make irrelevant the other Android device makers OR (2) Amazon should make the device makers use their own Appstore I'm not seeing (2) happening and as far as (1) is concerned, what can Amazon do that Apple couldn't? If price is the only issue, that didn't stop expensive Galaxy S phones from being sold, in spite of iTunes and in spite of a general consensus that iPhones are better.

foobarbazetc 15y ago

I fucking hope not. Amazon are the most developer-hostile company in existence. They make Apple's App Store look like a utopia of freedom and openness.

shareme 15y ago

He forgot one major point.. Google Appstore is slightly curated to remove harmful apps by a system built by skilled engineers. Amazon has no system setup to scan for harmful apps and to remove them from their market. And.. yeah there is an and..Kindle Fire is a tablet bastardization in that its a tablet off the phone code base not android 4.0..that means some app rewriting to put it in the Amazon store as Amazon does not use Google services such as License verification, Google maps, etc. The offer by amazon to developers would have to be very compelling to get developers to spend time rewriting applications. That offer is not compelling yet.. Its more likely that the two parties would partner to do android app distribution rather than Amazon taking over..