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What does this mean for the sale of Twitter? I still can't quite figure that out. Does Musk really want it at a lower price, or is he truly walking away from th

What does this mean for the sale of Twitter? I still can't quite figure that out. Does Musk really want it at a lower price, or is he truly walking away from the deal? If he walks away from the deal what happens then? Someone else buys it? I guess the real question is: Can twitter be saved?

dangets 4y ago
It is questionable whether he _can_ walk away from the deal. He signed all of the contracts and made legally binding promises to lenders with no clauses around misleading amount of spam bots or security issues. Of course, laws are more bendable when you're that rich and stand to lose billions. If you're really interested in this stuff, it has been an ongoing centerpiece in Matt Levine's newsletter. Articles are free if you subscribe to the email, but reading prior pieces may require a subscription. e.g. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/matt-levines-money-stuff-musk-cancels-twitter-deal-some-more https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/matt-levines-mo...
wpietri 4y ago
I suspect it doesn't mean much for the sale. From what I understand, it's mainly down to the agreements signed with Twitter and what the Delaware courts make of them in the trial starting October 17th. Those agreements are very Twitter-friendly, so my personal guess is that Musk is going to lose. As to what he wants, Musk is mercurial enough that I'm not sure that's a meaningful question. Did he want Twitter for a little while? Yes. Did that ever make sense given his other responsibilities? No. Did it make sense to investors? Based on Tesla's stock price slide, definitely not. Is he having buyer's remorse? Clearly. If he got a really good deal on it, might he swing back? Who knows. Is Twitter so badly run that they might do better in somebody else's hands? Yes. Is that person Musk? I doubt it. So if I were betting on Musk being smart, I'd be that Twitter will charge him a few billion dollars to get out of the deal, which would be better for everybody than Musk taking a $14 billion loss the instant the deal closes (which is is $44 billion bid minus the $30 billion that is Twitter's current market cap). But Musk could well be more prideful than smart, so I'm excited to see how all this turns out.

dangets 4y ago

It is questionable whether he _can_ walk away from the deal. He signed all of the contracts and made legally binding promises to lenders with no clauses around misleading amount of spam bots or security issues. Of course, laws are more bendable when you're that rich and stand to lose billions. If you're really interested in this stuff, it has been an ongoing centerpiece in Matt Levine's newsletter. Articles are free if you subscribe to the email, but reading prior pieces may require a subscription. e.g. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/matt-levines-money-stuff-musk-cancels-twitter-deal-some-more https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/matt-levines-mo...

wpietri 4y ago

I suspect it doesn't mean much for the sale. From what I understand, it's mainly down to the agreements signed with Twitter and what the Delaware courts make of them in the trial starting October 17th. Those agreements are very Twitter-friendly, so my personal guess is that Musk is going to lose. As to what he wants, Musk is mercurial enough that I'm not sure that's a meaningful question. Did he want Twitter for a little while? Yes. Did that ever make sense given his other responsibilities? No. Did it make sense to investors? Based on Tesla's stock price slide, definitely not. Is he having buyer's remorse? Clearly. If he got a really good deal on it, might he swing back? Who knows. Is Twitter so badly run that they might do better in somebody else's hands? Yes. Is that person Musk? I doubt it. So if I were betting on Musk being smart, I'd be that Twitter will charge him a few billion dollars to get out of the deal, which would be better for everybody than Musk taking a $14 billion loss the instant the deal closes (which is is $44 billion bid minus the $30 billion that is Twitter's current market cap). But Musk could well be more prideful than smart, so I'm excited to see how all this turns out.