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The US market is the second largest, globally, and is essentially 100% Qualcomm SoC phones outside of recent Pixel models. Samsung is probably the largest manuf

The US market is the second largest, globally, and is essentially 100% Qualcomm SoC phones outside of recent Pixel models. Samsung is probably the largest manufacturer with both Qualcomm and in-house processors, but the Qualcomm designs have often had better performance (and sell in higher-margin markets). Samsung is also sensitive to license issues and costs with ARM - to the extent that their in-house designs are performance competitive with ARM's designs, they would also be better off switching ISAs. Everyone else in the phone business is either using Qualcomm SoCs or something even cheaper (and even more sensitive to license costs). Samsung isn't big enough to force a switch on their own, especially not it if would result in a mixed architecture product line. But if Qualcomm wanted to? I don't think such a switch is _likely_, but it is _possible_, and ARM screwing around with one of its largest and highest-profile customers (especially one known for aggressive legal action and a very short-term notion of compatibility) is a good way to make such a switch look more appealing. Really, it seems to me that ARM really has only one possible good outcome from this: a settlement where Qualcomm pays them a bit of money. If they actually win, that maybe benefits ARM's in-house design teams and TLA licensing business in the short term, but it basically guarantees that ALA licensees in the server space look at switching ISAs.

scarface74 4y ago
Do you realize how few Pixel phones Google sells? Google sold only 1.2 million Pixel phones last quarter in the US https://9to5google.com/2022/05/19/pixel-6-us-market-q1-2022/ https://9to5google.com/2022/05/19/pixel-6-us-market-q1-2022/ Compared to Apple’s 20 million While Google doesn’t break out sales of Pixels. The best estimate I could find is around 2.5 million a quarter globally. https://9to5google.com/2022/05/11/the-pixel-6-sold-more-than-the-pixel-4-and-pixel-5-combined/ https://9to5google.com/2022/05/11/the-pixel-6-sold-more-than... Or about the number that Apple sells in 3 days. The US market is 3rd largest behind India and China or 4th if you count the EU as one market. But in the US, iOS has about a 60% market share and it dominates the high end. People who are buying cheap $261 or less Android phones aren’t looking for performance. https://www.statista.com/statistics/951537/worldwide-average-selling-price-android-smartphones/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/951537/worldwide-average... Not to mention that Google is non existent in China - the worlds largest market.
- cpgxiii 4y ago
  You're making my point for me. Recent Pixels are basically the only well-known Android phones in the US market that _aren't_ using Qualcomm SoCs, and they're a very small share of the US market. That gives Qualcomm more leverage, not less, in shaping the future of Android devices.
  - scarface74 4y ago
    My point is that the market for people who both care about performance and buy Androids is relatively small - too small to make the same type of investments in high performance chips that Apple makes. The market for high performance Android phones in the US is particularly small. Android phones are so far behind in performance now that even the low end iPhone SE benchmarks better than high end Android phones. This is the same reason that no chip maker even tries to make processors that are as performant for Android Watches as the Apple Watch. Android devices have been a commoditized race to the bottom for a decade.
    - cpgxiii 4y ago
      I think you're over focusing on present phone performance as reflecting a lack of future interest in performance improvement, especially from the perspective of a vendor. No phone manufacturer, and especially not Google as the parent of the whole Android ecosystem, would willingly accept a future in which their devices did not improve at least _somewhat_ generation over generation. Doing so would guarantee losing market share to Apple in every market in the world. This entire lawsuit, one could argue, centers around the belief by some vendors (Qualcomm, Nuvia, etc) that in-house designs - even those made by small teams - can significantly outperform the designs that ARM produces and makes available via TLA licensing, and that (implicitly) the pace of ARM's own development is not fast enough or reliable enough to be competitive in the markets these vendors want to operate in.
      - scarface74 4y ago
        Android is not going to lose more market share to Apple as long as Apple’s “low cost” phone is over $100 more expensive than the average cost of an Android phone. People who are use to paying $270 for a phone aren’t going to jump on a $429 iPhone SE let alone a $1200 iPhone Pro Max. Prices for iPhones are even more distorted overseas. The last decade is littered with OEMs trying to produce “high end” Android phones. Not enough people would buy them to make it a sustainable business. I’m not making a value judgment on them. Most people are fine with a sub $100 unsubsidized Android phone like the ones selling in developing countries and in the US.

scarface74 4y ago

Do you realize how few Pixel phones Google sells? Google sold only 1.2 million Pixel phones last quarter in the US https://9to5google.com/2022/05/19/pixel-6-us-market-q1-2022/ https://9to5google.com/2022/05/19/pixel-6-us-market-q1-2022/ Compared to Apple’s 20 million While Google doesn’t break out sales of Pixels. The best estimate I could find is around 2.5 million a quarter globally. https://9to5google.com/2022/05/11/the-pixel-6-sold-more-than-the-pixel-4-and-pixel-5-combined/ https://9to5google.com/2022/05/11/the-pixel-6-sold-more-than... Or about the number that Apple sells in 3 days. The US market is 3rd largest behind India and China or 4th if you count the EU as one market. But in the US, iOS has about a 60% market share and it dominates the high end. People who are buying cheap $261 or less Android phones aren’t looking for performance. https://www.statista.com/statistics/951537/worldwide-average-selling-price-android-smartphones/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/951537/worldwide-average... Not to mention that Google is non existent in China - the worlds largest market.

cpgxiii 4y ago
You're making my point for me. Recent Pixels are basically the only well-known Android phones in the US market that _aren't_ using Qualcomm SoCs, and they're a very small share of the US market. That gives Qualcomm more leverage, not less, in shaping the future of Android devices.
- scarface74 4y ago
  My point is that the market for people who both care about performance and buy Androids is relatively small - too small to make the same type of investments in high performance chips that Apple makes. The market for high performance Android phones in the US is particularly small. Android phones are so far behind in performance now that even the low end iPhone SE benchmarks better than high end Android phones. This is the same reason that no chip maker even tries to make processors that are as performant for Android Watches as the Apple Watch. Android devices have been a commoditized race to the bottom for a decade.
  - cpgxiii 4y ago
    I think you're over focusing on present phone performance as reflecting a lack of future interest in performance improvement, especially from the perspective of a vendor. No phone manufacturer, and especially not Google as the parent of the whole Android ecosystem, would willingly accept a future in which their devices did not improve at least _somewhat_ generation over generation. Doing so would guarantee losing market share to Apple in every market in the world. This entire lawsuit, one could argue, centers around the belief by some vendors (Qualcomm, Nuvia, etc) that in-house designs - even those made by small teams - can significantly outperform the designs that ARM produces and makes available via TLA licensing, and that (implicitly) the pace of ARM's own development is not fast enough or reliable enough to be competitive in the markets these vendors want to operate in.
    - scarface74 4y ago
      Android is not going to lose more market share to Apple as long as Apple’s “low cost” phone is over $100 more expensive than the average cost of an Android phone. People who are use to paying $270 for a phone aren’t going to jump on a $429 iPhone SE let alone a $1200 iPhone Pro Max. Prices for iPhones are even more distorted overseas. The last decade is littered with OEMs trying to produce “high end” Android phones. Not enough people would buy them to make it a sustainable business. I’m not making a value judgment on them. Most people are fine with a sub $100 unsubsidized Android phone like the ones selling in developing countries and in the US.