3 ms·
The problem of mishandling fear affects not only kids. Most adults seem to be very bad at understanding risk vs reward and responding appropriately. (To wit,
by randcraw 4y ago
The problem of mishandling fear affects not only kids. Most adults seem to be very bad at understanding risk vs reward and responding appropriately. (To wit, how should we compare different kinds of risk/reward, like a very severe risk that's very rare (violent home invasion) as compared to a very minor risk that's an everyday booboo (misplacing your car keys). If we can't recognize where true risk lies and its true cost, and choose a sensible plan of reaction, we will misperceive and overreact to all threats.)
There's no better illustration of this than the widespread confusion about vaccines, not just among "the hesitant". Responding to lopsided risk vs reward ratios, like safe vaccines for dire diseases, should be a slam dunk (polio, smallpox, typhoid). And if you're in a vulnerable subclass (old, immuno-compromised, etc) the same clarity should hold for more modest diseases because they can be mortal for you. SUCH TRADEOFFS SHOULD BE OBVIOUS. It's only the low-reward moderate-risk choices that deserve closer scrutiny (like flu vaccination for kids).
Somehow we all need to learn the two essentials: 1) the basics of probability and how to properly balance risk vs reward, and 2) what are the necessary/sufficient facts -- what do we really know, and how confident should we be in using that knowledge? This really should be taught in every pubic school math class. For 90% of the population, it's much more valuable a skill than typical math courses like geometry, trig, and calculus.
Properly understanding risk is also central to basic reasoning skills. Unlike what's taught in academia, the truths of the world are rarely binary/propositional. When thinking rationally, one needs to be clear in choosing the relevant value proposition (the measure of success/failure) and whether the proposed course of action will achieve it (likelihood of a plan's success/failure). That's a continuous probability, not a binary choice, and we need to develop intuition for how to weigh outcomes against our plans for achieving them.
Minimizing risk should be an engineered response, where we can explain why we believe as we do. The sooner we can all be clear headed about what we know, what we want, and the real risk of success/failure, the better we will be at dealing with all probable worlds.