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Unfortunately in Portugal as in almost everywhere else the government has little incentive to do so: as the ruling class is comprised almost entirely of wealthi

Unfortunately in Portugal as in almost everywhere else the government has little incentive to do so: as the ruling class is comprised almost entirely of wealthier people with lots of assets, they (1) don't suffer from the insane housing prices and (2) indeed as proprietors benefit from the surge in housing asset prices.

dougmwne 4y ago
Sure that is a headwind, but it's certainly not impossible to get your government to work for you instead of against you. While there are many examples of hopelessly corrupt, democracy-in-name-only governments, there are also governments that respond to the needs of the majority to keep from getting thrown out in the next elections. Generally, having all these big money foreigners trying to come to your country is a good thing. It sure beats having no industry and you can crank up the tax heat on them as high as you want since nonresident-noncitizens don't vote. The real problem is that the Portuguese government is not being made to share the bounty of a few winners with the rest of the population, who are instead left to just deal with the externalities. There is another path that does not involve locking the doors and hanging up a "closed for business" sign.
- andrepd 4y ago
  As a relatively poor country (for European standards) with, crucially, a lot of debt, it is very difficult to go for massive public spending projects as would be construction of enough public housing to bring it to the aforementioned 20% goal (there are actually proposals to this effect in Parliament), even though this would (1) help control the housing crisis and (2) actually easily turn up a profit in the mid-long run. The EU could change all of this and go for true European cohesion with Eurobonds under the blue/red proposal... but that's another story ;) > Generally, having all these big money foreigners trying to come to your country is a good thing. It sure beats having no industry and you can crank up the tax heat on them as high as you want since nonresident-noncitizens don't vote. Well but do they? Where is the evidence that golden-visa/NHR recipients have actually helped create jobs, invest, create industry...? In fact, there appears to be evidence to the contrary: https://www.publico.pt/2021/12/25/economia/noticia/vistos-gold-nove-anos-programa-deu-origem-241-empregos-1989872 https://www.publico.pt/2021/12/25/economia/noticia/vistos-go... (translated: "Golden visa: in nine years, the program created 241 new jobs. Investments which led to the residency permits since 2012 amount to 6000 million euro, the vast majority of which went to real estate")
  - dougmwne 4y ago
    To your second point, that’s a policy problem. You can tax these golden visa real estate investors at any rate. You can have a different tax rate for nonresidents and an extremely high rate to penalize non-occupancy. The country might be poor and in debt overall, but somebody is getting rich off this real estate bubble and it is within the government’s power to make them share.
tiagod 4y ago
I'm pretty sure you hit the nail in the head right here. I wish we had public data showing how much each person in parliament/city government gets each month as rental income... would probably be pretty enlightening.

dougmwne 4y ago

Sure that is a headwind, but it's certainly not impossible to get your government to work for you instead of against you. While there are many examples of hopelessly corrupt, democracy-in-name-only governments, there are also governments that respond to the needs of the majority to keep from getting thrown out in the next elections. Generally, having all these big money foreigners trying to come to your country is a good thing. It sure beats having no industry and you can crank up the tax heat on them as high as you want since nonresident-noncitizens don't vote. The real problem is that the Portuguese government is not being made to share the bounty of a few winners with the rest of the population, who are instead left to just deal with the externalities. There is another path that does not involve locking the doors and hanging up a "closed for business" sign.

andrepd 4y ago
As a relatively poor country (for European standards) with, crucially, a lot of debt, it is very difficult to go for massive public spending projects as would be construction of enough public housing to bring it to the aforementioned 20% goal (there are actually proposals to this effect in Parliament), even though this would (1) help control the housing crisis and (2) actually easily turn up a profit in the mid-long run. The EU could change all of this and go for true European cohesion with Eurobonds under the blue/red proposal... but that's another story ;) > Generally, having all these big money foreigners trying to come to your country is a good thing. It sure beats having no industry and you can crank up the tax heat on them as high as you want since nonresident-noncitizens don't vote. Well but do they? Where is the evidence that golden-visa/NHR recipients have actually helped create jobs, invest, create industry...? In fact, there appears to be evidence to the contrary: https://www.publico.pt/2021/12/25/economia/noticia/vistos-gold-nove-anos-programa-deu-origem-241-empregos-1989872 https://www.publico.pt/2021/12/25/economia/noticia/vistos-go... (translated: "Golden visa: in nine years, the program created 241 new jobs. Investments which led to the residency permits since 2012 amount to 6000 million euro, the vast majority of which went to real estate")
- dougmwne 4y ago
  To your second point, that’s a policy problem. You can tax these golden visa real estate investors at any rate. You can have a different tax rate for nonresidents and an extremely high rate to penalize non-occupancy. The country might be poor and in debt overall, but somebody is getting rich off this real estate bubble and it is within the government’s power to make them share.

tiagod 4y ago

I'm pretty sure you hit the nail in the head right here. I wish we had public data showing how much each person in parliament/city government gets each month as rental income... would probably be pretty enlightening.