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I actually went back and looked at US Presidents warning Europe about this. Trump famously did and the Germans laughed at him for it. Obama and Biden (both as

I actually went back and looked at US Presidents warning Europe about this. Trump famously did and the Germans laughed at him for it. Obama and Biden (both as VP and now as President) did. Even as far back as George Bush: he warned them, although it was presented more as a trade matter since it would have been beneficial for the energy industry and this was pre-fracking revolution. It has been a choir of warnings for decades, but the hubris of European technocrats wouldn't let them see reality.

jhoechtl 4y ago
So it was actually a shot in the dark? When was the Bush administration in place?
cmrdporcupine 4y ago
Well, we can wag our fingers at Europe for engaging with Russia, but North America did the same with China. And for Europe, it's not simply hubris though. There's multiple things at work. When the United States or Canada says to Europe: Don't buy energy from Russia, what Europeans legitimately heard was: Buy energy (at more cost and logistical challenge) from us instead. Meanwhile Canada especially -- but likely the US as well -- was very much focused on building infrastructure for trade with the Pacific Rim, not Europe. So what other choice did Europe realistically have anyways? I'm mad at hell at successive Canadian governments (what I'm most familiar with) who prioritized trade with China (or bulk exports to the US without value add). At the expense of the domestic market/infrastructure, at the expense of developing renewables, and at the expense of our European allies. Insanely short term thinking. An LNG facility on the St Lawrence would be real nice right now. Instead a massive LNG facility is being built for coastal British Columbia, and pipeline infrastructure being set up for that. Wrong coast it turns out because China will be perfectly happy to import from Russia instead. But again, all eyes on China, despite the risks that entailed, which are similar to the risks that western Europe had with Russia.
blub 4y ago
I have to admit that the ending took me by surprise. I was expecting “…but the Europeans got tired of them calling wolf”. Those pipelines were shipping gas to Europe literally for decades. Countries like Ukraine, Belarus or Poland were making handsome money from the transit fees too.
phicoh 4y ago
The warnings are clear. But I'm sure some impact analysis was done to see how higher prices for natural gas would affect various industries. It doesn't make it a wise choice to have no backup for Russian gas, but I'm sure the industry lobby to keep the cheap gas was very strong.

jhoechtl 4y ago

So it was actually a shot in the dark? When was the Bush administration in place?

cmrdporcupine 4y ago

Well, we can wag our fingers at Europe for engaging with Russia, but North America did the same with China. And for Europe, it's not simply hubris though. There's multiple things at work. When the United States or Canada says to Europe: Don't buy energy from Russia, what Europeans legitimately heard was: Buy energy (at more cost and logistical challenge) from us instead. Meanwhile Canada especially -- but likely the US as well -- was very much focused on building infrastructure for trade with the Pacific Rim, not Europe. So what other choice did Europe realistically have anyways? I'm mad at hell at successive Canadian governments (what I'm most familiar with) who prioritized trade with China (or bulk exports to the US without value add). At the expense of the domestic market/infrastructure, at the expense of developing renewables, and at the expense of our European allies. Insanely short term thinking. An LNG facility on the St Lawrence would be real nice right now. Instead a massive LNG facility is being built for coastal British Columbia, and pipeline infrastructure being set up for that. Wrong coast it turns out because China will be perfectly happy to import from Russia instead. But again, all eyes on China, despite the risks that entailed, which are similar to the risks that western Europe had with Russia.

blub 4y ago

I have to admit that the ending took me by surprise. I was expecting “…but the Europeans got tired of them calling wolf”. Those pipelines were shipping gas to Europe literally for decades. Countries like Ukraine, Belarus or Poland were making handsome money from the transit fees too.

phicoh 4y ago

The warnings are clear. But I'm sure some impact analysis was done to see how higher prices for natural gas would affect various industries. It doesn't make it a wise choice to have no backup for Russian gas, but I'm sure the industry lobby to keep the cheap gas was very strong.