4 ms·

I am not sure what exactly the thought process is here? So NVIDA is losing Chinese market, probably for the foreseeable future. Chinese are one step away from f

I am not sure what exactly the thought process is here? So NVIDA is losing Chinese market, probably for the foreseeable future. Chinese are one step away from figuring out this technology anyway, if not already. They will not trust us again. It makes them less dependent on us. Oh, and we still need their manufacturing because of the labor costs, environmental issues, regulations and now, energy costs. How would this work exactly? I know it has been done during the Cold War I, but the world looks very different today.

01100011 4y ago
It seems to only make sense if we feel that advanced technology enables a greater threat in the near future... ... or we're governed by morons. Take your pick. Nice that this comes a month after the Pelosis cleared their NVDA holdings. Just a coincidence, I'm sure.
- endominus 4y ago
  It's kind of astounding that the Senate can literally legalize insider trading for themselves and nothing comes of it. There's no one pointing out how that's just garden-variety corruption common in every authoritarian, extractive state, but one step removed. A great example of how even in a democratic society, the people cannot realistically expect lawmakers to pass laws against those lawmakers' own economic interests.
  - Cipater 4y ago
    They passed the STOCK Act in 2012 ostensibly to combat insider trading in Congress but it's basically toothless. They're still doing it. But in the case they get caught the standard fine is $200 and even that gets waived by House/Senate officials. They don't even bother to keep records on violators.
differentView 4y ago
Can't most manufacturing be moved to other countries, such as India and Vietnam?
- T-A 4y ago
  https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-know https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-...
Sabinus 4y ago
>Chinese are one step away from figuring out this technology anyway Even if they do they are far away from fabrication. >They will not trust us again. China already massively distrusts the West. America tried the Japanese economic model with China (allow your factories to be exported there, remove trade barriers) and it didn't get them very far.
- melenaboija 4y ago
  > Even if they do they are far away from fabrication. Where do you think most of the electronics is manufactured?
  - Green_man 4y ago
    I assume fabrication refers to semiconductor fabs, not factories assembling computers together. None of the world's most advanced semiconductor fabs are in China, and whether they can catch up to TSMC/Samsung remains to be seen.
  - infinityio 4y ago
    State-of-the-art chip fabrication is still mostly based in Taiwan, with TSMC (as an example: the BR100, China's most recent native flagship gpu, is fabbed using TSMC) - China's own SMIC has appeared to struggle However, they seem to have been catching up fairly quickly - until very recently SMIC have been stuck around 14nm (state of the art in 2013, SMIC in 2019), but they recently announced they have managed to start producing 7nm chips (state of the art in 2018)
    - vbezhenar 4y ago
      Take Chinese announcements with a grain of salt. It’s the same as “IBM produced 0.1 nm transistor” stuff. It’s far from production. They’ll get there eventually though.
      - DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
        SMIC didn't announce that it's fabricating 7 nm chips. The news came from an external analysis of a chip SMIC fabricated. SMIC apparently began fabricating at 7 nm without any fanfare.
throwaway6734 4y ago
>Chinese are one step away from figuring out this technology anyway Then they can ban their products from the US
quitit 4y ago
For the same reason why you don't send good money after bad. A line is drawn in the sand and while this isn't significant at first - it compounds over time, and allows businesses to divest, avoid new relationships and allow existing ones to become redundant. From war-mongering, using arbitrary embargoes as political retaliation, to farcical business practices (e.g. the ARM China saga), to a lop-sided approach to intellectual property and using the state to remove competition, both China and Russia have proven to act in bad faith, not respect rules-based order and not be a good business/manufacturing partner. At some point one needs to stop feeding the trolls.
- mccorrinall 4y ago
  China will just import the cards via third leg which isn’t sanctionizing them, eg Japan
- trasz 4y ago
  >From war-mongering, using arbitrary embargoes as political retaliation, to farcical business practices (e.g. the ARM China saga), to a lop-sided approach to intellectual property and using the state to remove competition This description fits USA much better than China. Especially the war mongering - China hasn’t invaded anyone for five decades now.
  - DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
    And China doesn't use sanctions or embargoes on anywhere near the same scale as the US does. Nobody does. What meaningful sanctions has China imposed? The US has imposed very harsh sanctions against China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and many other countries. Because of the US dollar's position as the international reserve currency, US sanctions are highly effective. Huawei can barely even do business with other Chinese companies, because they're all afraid of getting hit by secondary sanctions. The grandparent comment poses this as an issue of confronting a China that is behaving unfairly or erratically. That's not what this is about at all. Chinese policy has been relatively stable. In terms of how it treats foreign firms (for example, on IP protection issues), it's been getting progressively better. China doesn't want to rock the boat, because it is still developing and believes that things will go its way if it just smoothly grows its economy. The real issue is that the US political class is panicking about being eclipsed as the world's top power. The panic began during the Trump administration, but it has now infected both political parties and is consensus in Washington. We'll see more and more disruptive moves like this until one of two things happens: 1. WW3, which everyone on Earth will lose. 2. The US realizes that being #2 isn't that bad.

01100011 4y ago

It seems to only make sense if we feel that advanced technology enables a greater threat in the near future... ... or we're governed by morons. Take your pick. Nice that this comes a month after the Pelosis cleared their NVDA holdings. Just a coincidence, I'm sure.

endominus 4y ago
It's kind of astounding that the Senate can literally legalize insider trading for themselves and nothing comes of it. There's no one pointing out how that's just garden-variety corruption common in every authoritarian, extractive state, but one step removed. A great example of how even in a democratic society, the people cannot realistically expect lawmakers to pass laws against those lawmakers' own economic interests.
- Cipater 4y ago
  They passed the STOCK Act in 2012 ostensibly to combat insider trading in Congress but it's basically toothless. They're still doing it. But in the case they get caught the standard fine is $200 and even that gets waived by House/Senate officials. They don't even bother to keep records on violators.

differentView 4y ago

Can't most manufacturing be moved to other countries, such as India and Vietnam?

T-A 4y ago
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-know https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-...

Sabinus 4y ago

>Chinese are one step away from figuring out this technology anyway Even if they do they are far away from fabrication. >They will not trust us again. China already massively distrusts the West. America tried the Japanese economic model with China (allow your factories to be exported there, remove trade barriers) and it didn't get them very far.

melenaboija 4y ago
> Even if they do they are far away from fabrication. Where do you think most of the electronics is manufactured?
- Green_man 4y ago
  I assume fabrication refers to semiconductor fabs, not factories assembling computers together. None of the world's most advanced semiconductor fabs are in China, and whether they can catch up to TSMC/Samsung remains to be seen.
- infinityio 4y ago
  State-of-the-art chip fabrication is still mostly based in Taiwan, with TSMC (as an example: the BR100, China's most recent native flagship gpu, is fabbed using TSMC) - China's own SMIC has appeared to struggle However, they seem to have been catching up fairly quickly - until very recently SMIC have been stuck around 14nm (state of the art in 2013, SMIC in 2019), but they recently announced they have managed to start producing 7nm chips (state of the art in 2018)
  - vbezhenar 4y ago
    Take Chinese announcements with a grain of salt. It’s the same as “IBM produced 0.1 nm transistor” stuff. It’s far from production. They’ll get there eventually though.
    - DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
      SMIC didn't announce that it's fabricating 7 nm chips. The news came from an external analysis of a chip SMIC fabricated. SMIC apparently began fabricating at 7 nm without any fanfare.

throwaway6734 4y ago

>Chinese are one step away from figuring out this technology anyway Then they can ban their products from the US

quitit 4y ago

For the same reason why you don't send good money after bad. A line is drawn in the sand and while this isn't significant at first - it compounds over time, and allows businesses to divest, avoid new relationships and allow existing ones to become redundant. From war-mongering, using arbitrary embargoes as political retaliation, to farcical business practices (e.g. the ARM China saga), to a lop-sided approach to intellectual property and using the state to remove competition, both China and Russia have proven to act in bad faith, not respect rules-based order and not be a good business/manufacturing partner. At some point one needs to stop feeding the trolls.

mccorrinall 4y ago
China will just import the cards via third leg which isn’t sanctionizing them, eg Japan
trasz 4y ago
>From war-mongering, using arbitrary embargoes as political retaliation, to farcical business practices (e.g. the ARM China saga), to a lop-sided approach to intellectual property and using the state to remove competition This description fits USA much better than China. Especially the war mongering - China hasn’t invaded anyone for five decades now.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
  And China doesn't use sanctions or embargoes on anywhere near the same scale as the US does. Nobody does. What meaningful sanctions has China imposed? The US has imposed very harsh sanctions against China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and many other countries. Because of the US dollar's position as the international reserve currency, US sanctions are highly effective. Huawei can barely even do business with other Chinese companies, because they're all afraid of getting hit by secondary sanctions. The grandparent comment poses this as an issue of confronting a China that is behaving unfairly or erratically. That's not what this is about at all. Chinese policy has been relatively stable. In terms of how it treats foreign firms (for example, on IP protection issues), it's been getting progressively better. China doesn't want to rock the boat, because it is still developing and believes that things will go its way if it just smoothly grows its economy. The real issue is that the US political class is panicking about being eclipsed as the world's top power. The panic began during the Trump administration, but it has now infected both political parties and is consensus in Washington. We'll see more and more disruptive moves like this until one of two things happens: 1. WW3, which everyone on Earth will lose. 2. The US realizes that being #2 isn't that bad.