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As a Chinese, what I want to say is that populism here has risen rapidly in recent years, the Thucydides trap has been fulfilled again, and a war is basically i

As a Chinese, what I want to say is that populism here has risen rapidly in recent years, the Thucydides trap has been fulfilled again, and a war is basically inevitable. is the United States determined to deal with this earth war? How much are you willing to pay to protect Taiwan?

onepointsixC 4y ago
>is the United States determined to deal with this earth war? How much are you willing to pay to protect Taiwan? Yes the US is very much determined to win such a war. A free and independent Taiwan is the linchpin of American foreign policy in Asia. America is willing to spend great fortunes in treasure and blood to keep it that way.
- quantum_state 4y ago
  Counting the track records … Vietnam, Afghan … apart from wasting lots of tax payer money and making the people in the area miserable, what else did we achieve?
  - onepointsixC 4y ago
    Those are your go to for examples of the US lacking determination and resolve to stand by allies? Sure the US abandoned the South Vietnamese and the Afghan Governments, but only after two decades of military conflict in support of each. A dragged out conflict over Taiwan hurts the CCP the most.
    - quantum_state 4y ago
      Please remember the CCP has no feeling … hard to make it feel hurt. However, a dragged out conflict would hurt the people at TW and waste our money … let’s focus on building this country strong and take care the ppl here …
      - onepointsixC 4y ago
        What a bizarre take. The people of Taiwan do not want to share the fate of Hong Kongers and are willing to fight to keep it that way. China imports 10 million barrels of oil a day. Any protracted conflict against the USN will see the CENTCOM stopping that flow of oil, which mostly comes from the Middle East. China is neither food nor energy secure and every additional month of conflict over Taiwan would be absolutely devastating to them. Let me guess you also oppose aiding Ukrainians?
        waffleiron 4y ago
        The people of Taiwan also don’t want to be bombed and die.
        cycrutchfield 4y ago
        Sounds a lot like Russian thinking about Ukrainian resolve. How’s that working out?
      - cbozeman 4y ago
        Even without a war, China will be down to 650,000,000 people in the next 30-40 years. Throw a war into that mix and China's demographic numbers become even more grim.
  - AbrahamParangi 4y ago
    If you’re counting the track record of interventions shouldn’t you count WW1, WW2, the Korean War and the Cold War as well?
    - TulliusCicero 4y ago
      Also Kuwait in the first Iraq War.
  - School-Cotton 4y ago
    In both Vietnam and Afghanistan, the US was participating (on the losing side) in an asymmetric civil war between local factions. In Taiwan they would be allied with a modern state, with a modern military and very high support among the population, attempting to repel an invasion from a (de facto) foreign state. Completely different scenarios.
  - hoseja 4y ago
    Keeping the US military ready and exercised, and the military-industrial complex alive and productive. The main goal of those wars. When was the last time PLA had a live conflict?
potency 4y ago
Politicians with donors and special interests to please keep pushing our foreign interventionism. The actual people here in the US don't really want to fight in any wars or instigate conflicts. But a representative democracy is not what we really have here any more.
- cycrutchfield 4y ago
  Might want to check those polling numbers again: https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-survey/first-time-half-americans-favor-defending-taiwan-if-china-invades https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-su...
ericmay 4y ago
Wars happen because each of the two sides think they can win. In this case, the US is obviously confident it can win. This one is easy to see in this scenario. China on the other hand questions the commitment of the US: “really, you’re going to go to war to protect Taiwan? It’s China! What do you care?”, and this could be true if geographic and geopolitical realities were different. But what the CCP somewhat and I think many Chinese citizens misunderstand is that Taiwan isn’t just some island. Taiwan is a crucial linchpin to all of America’s presence and legitimacy in Asia. So for China (more so Chinese citizens) it’s just some island that belongs to China anyway. Of course China would win and take over because Americans don’t really want to fight or think they can win right? There lies the miscalculation that leads to the war. It’s not about Taiwan the island, it’s about existential foreign policy for America. The US is extremely determined to maintain the status quo. China misunderstands this and thinks that an invasion over Taiwan won’t lead to an actual war because they don’t understand what the war is about. Note: When I say China, I mean people who question whether the U.S. is determined to fight a war over Taiwan. Certainly main Chinese including leadership in the CCP understand what’s at stake, which is why they haven’t undertaken an invasion as of yet.
- yrlihuan 4y ago
  The US will win in a non-war scenario, by using its influence over the other countries and isolating China from the US's western allies. It's an easy choice and seemingly an easy win. A real military conflict with China near China's front door is another thing. I doubt anyone with some common sense should call that an easy win.
  - mschuster91 4y ago
    > The US will win in a non-war scenario, by using its influence over the other countries and isolating China from the US's western allies. The US has lost a lot of their soft power, beginning with the Iraq war, but exploding during the 45th Presidency. Their failure to convince Germany to drop North Stream 2 is the best example of that loss - particularly the gang of senators which thought it would be a good idea to threaten a harbor with sanctions [1] was perceived as extremely rude here. And a lot of nominal allies are highly skeptical of how reliable an ally the US themselves are, given the very high likelihood of the Republicans getting obstructionist power again either this November or in two years and the lack of decent candidates on the Democrat side. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-us-senators-threaten-german-port-with-crushing-sanctions/a-54473119 https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-us-senators-threaten-ger...
AbrahamParangi 4y ago
As you can see in Ukraine, Americans love an underdog. If Russia’s nuclear deterrent were any weaker, American soldiers would be fighting in Donetsk and the Harry S. Truman would be in the Black Sea.
- waffleiron 4y ago
  Americans don’t necessarily love an underdog, they love anyone opposed to their geopolitical enemies. The US doesn’t support Ukraine because it’s invaded, they support Ukraine because it’s invaded by Russia.
gred 4y ago
We'd be seeing significantly less concern in the West if the "official" Chinese worldview were more democratic, less authoritarian, more humanistic, and less illiberal. How long will it take for the emerging Chinese middle class to force changes internally, move up Maslow's hierarchy, and demand freedom of conscience, speech, religion, assembly, press, petition, and privacy? IMO it's a bit of a race between the Chinese middle class' moderating influence and whatever spark (Taiwan?) sends us tumbling to war. Maybe if we can make it 60 more years (2 generations) without a war, the Chinese middle class will pick up some momentum in demanding their rights. That's the larger, longer-term tragedy of Tiananmen Square, that it set this process back decades (again, IMO).
- cbozeman 4y ago
  Things are going to get worse in China, not better. In 60 years, they'll have half their current population (One Child Policy). Not only that, but Western companies have seen the writing on the wall. Production is moving out of China to Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, etc.. Semiconductor facilities are being built in America. We're not going to be able to avoid a war with China, because Pooh Bear has to have a scapegoat and the U.S. will be it, but make no mistake, China is on the way down, not up...
  - PeterStuer 4y ago
    Funny thing is you could write a very simillar post with the protagonists reversed.
    - throwaway290 4y ago
      How so? The US never had a one child policy and replenishes population by allowing migrants to become Americans (try becoming a Chinese--this basically never happens). Manufacturing is moving to the US. Regarding scapegoating it's China where you see government propaganda adverts showing terrible and ugly capitalist western countries, nothing even close the other way around.
    - cbozeman 4y ago
pyinstallwoes 4y ago
"Protect Taiwan" isn't the core issue is it? It's the production of chips which is the rate of technological growth and mantel of "technological supremacy."
- stackbutterflow 4y ago
  It is the core issue. The importance of TSMC has been vastly exaggerated. In case of war their factories would be destroyed anyway. Remove TSMC and the importance of Taiwan remains exactly the same. If the USA doesn't protect Taiwan it'll be their Suez canal moment. The moment the British and the French realized they were not great powers anymore.
  - pyinstallwoes 4y ago
    Remove TSMC and where does the chip supply come from?
cycrutchfield 4y ago
>is the United States determined to deal with this earth war? How much are you willing to pay to protect Taiwan? A majority of Americans support defending Taiwan from Chinese invasion. How much are the Chinese people willing to pay to attempt the largest amphibious invasion since D-Day while being starved of oil and international trade?
- stackbutterflow 4y ago
  Most are indoctrinated. They do not understand the consequences of such a war on their country.
- butterfly771 4y ago
  Did Japan ever think that it would be settled by an atomic bomb when it invaded the whole of Asia in World War II? Confrontation at any time is a game, who knows who is the final winner?
  - cycrutchfield 4y ago
    Picking a fight with the schoolyard bully can seem tempting, but the bully is a bully for a reason and odds are you get your face caved in.
hoseja 4y ago
Thousand years of humiliation this time.
another_story 4y ago
China under communist rule has a long history of changing their tune on a dime and the population going along with it without difficulty. If the Party decides tomorrow stoking nationalism is a bad idea it'll take a matter of weeks to have people saying, "The Taiwanese are our brothers, why would we fight them?" followed weeks later by "We never said we'd invade Taiwan, you just dont understand the way China works." In the last 80 years the Chinese have become masters of holding diametrically opposed ideas. I believe they can back down from this without breaking a sweat.

onepointsixC 4y ago

>is the United States determined to deal with this earth war? How much are you willing to pay to protect Taiwan? Yes the US is very much determined to win such a war. A free and independent Taiwan is the linchpin of American foreign policy in Asia. America is willing to spend great fortunes in treasure and blood to keep it that way.

quantum_state 4y ago
Counting the track records … Vietnam, Afghan … apart from wasting lots of tax payer money and making the people in the area miserable, what else did we achieve?
- onepointsixC 4y ago
  Those are your go to for examples of the US lacking determination and resolve to stand by allies? Sure the US abandoned the South Vietnamese and the Afghan Governments, but only after two decades of military conflict in support of each. A dragged out conflict over Taiwan hurts the CCP the most.
  - quantum_state 4y ago
    Please remember the CCP has no feeling … hard to make it feel hurt. However, a dragged out conflict would hurt the people at TW and waste our money … let’s focus on building this country strong and take care the ppl here …
    - onepointsixC 4y ago
      What a bizarre take. The people of Taiwan do not want to share the fate of Hong Kongers and are willing to fight to keep it that way. China imports 10 million barrels of oil a day. Any protracted conflict against the USN will see the CENTCOM stopping that flow of oil, which mostly comes from the Middle East. China is neither food nor energy secure and every additional month of conflict over Taiwan would be absolutely devastating to them. Let me guess you also oppose aiding Ukrainians?
      - waffleiron 4y ago
        The people of Taiwan also don’t want to be bombed and die.
        cycrutchfield 4y ago
        Sounds a lot like Russian thinking about Ukrainian resolve. How’s that working out?
    - cbozeman 4y ago
      Even without a war, China will be down to 650,000,000 people in the next 30-40 years. Throw a war into that mix and China's demographic numbers become even more grim.
- AbrahamParangi 4y ago
  If you’re counting the track record of interventions shouldn’t you count WW1, WW2, the Korean War and the Cold War as well?
  - TulliusCicero 4y ago
    Also Kuwait in the first Iraq War.
- School-Cotton 4y ago
  In both Vietnam and Afghanistan, the US was participating (on the losing side) in an asymmetric civil war between local factions. In Taiwan they would be allied with a modern state, with a modern military and very high support among the population, attempting to repel an invasion from a (de facto) foreign state. Completely different scenarios.
- hoseja 4y ago
  Keeping the US military ready and exercised, and the military-industrial complex alive and productive. The main goal of those wars. When was the last time PLA had a live conflict?

potency 4y ago

Politicians with donors and special interests to please keep pushing our foreign interventionism. The actual people here in the US don't really want to fight in any wars or instigate conflicts. But a representative democracy is not what we really have here any more.

cycrutchfield 4y ago
Might want to check those polling numbers again: https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-survey/first-time-half-americans-favor-defending-taiwan-if-china-invades https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-su...

ericmay 4y ago

Wars happen because each of the two sides think they can win. In this case, the US is obviously confident it can win. This one is easy to see in this scenario. China on the other hand questions the commitment of the US: “really, you’re going to go to war to protect Taiwan? It’s China! What do you care?”, and this could be true if geographic and geopolitical realities were different. But what the CCP somewhat and I think many Chinese citizens misunderstand is that Taiwan isn’t just some island. Taiwan is a crucial linchpin to all of America’s presence and legitimacy in Asia. So for China (more so Chinese citizens) it’s just some island that belongs to China anyway. Of course China would win and take over because Americans don’t really want to fight or think they can win right? There lies the miscalculation that leads to the war. It’s not about Taiwan the island, it’s about existential foreign policy for America. The US is extremely determined to maintain the status quo. China misunderstands this and thinks that an invasion over Taiwan won’t lead to an actual war because they don’t understand what the war is about. Note: When I say China, I mean people who question whether the U.S. is determined to fight a war over Taiwan. Certainly main Chinese including leadership in the CCP understand what’s at stake, which is why they haven’t undertaken an invasion as of yet.

yrlihuan 4y ago
The US will win in a non-war scenario, by using its influence over the other countries and isolating China from the US's western allies. It's an easy choice and seemingly an easy win. A real military conflict with China near China's front door is another thing. I doubt anyone with some common sense should call that an easy win.
- mschuster91 4y ago
  > The US will win in a non-war scenario, by using its influence over the other countries and isolating China from the US's western allies. The US has lost a lot of their soft power, beginning with the Iraq war, but exploding during the 45th Presidency. Their failure to convince Germany to drop North Stream 2 is the best example of that loss - particularly the gang of senators which thought it would be a good idea to threaten a harbor with sanctions [1] was perceived as extremely rude here. And a lot of nominal allies are highly skeptical of how reliable an ally the US themselves are, given the very high likelihood of the Republicans getting obstructionist power again either this November or in two years and the lack of decent candidates on the Democrat side. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-us-senators-threaten-german-port-with-crushing-sanctions/a-54473119 https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-us-senators-threaten-ger...

AbrahamParangi 4y ago

As you can see in Ukraine, Americans love an underdog. If Russia’s nuclear deterrent were any weaker, American soldiers would be fighting in Donetsk and the Harry S. Truman would be in the Black Sea.

waffleiron 4y ago
Americans don’t necessarily love an underdog, they love anyone opposed to their geopolitical enemies. The US doesn’t support Ukraine because it’s invaded, they support Ukraine because it’s invaded by Russia.

gred 4y ago

We'd be seeing significantly less concern in the West if the "official" Chinese worldview were more democratic, less authoritarian, more humanistic, and less illiberal. How long will it take for the emerging Chinese middle class to force changes internally, move up Maslow's hierarchy, and demand freedom of conscience, speech, religion, assembly, press, petition, and privacy? IMO it's a bit of a race between the Chinese middle class' moderating influence and whatever spark (Taiwan?) sends us tumbling to war. Maybe if we can make it 60 more years (2 generations) without a war, the Chinese middle class will pick up some momentum in demanding their rights. That's the larger, longer-term tragedy of Tiananmen Square, that it set this process back decades (again, IMO).

cbozeman 4y ago
Things are going to get worse in China, not better. In 60 years, they'll have half their current population (One Child Policy). Not only that, but Western companies have seen the writing on the wall. Production is moving out of China to Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, etc.. Semiconductor facilities are being built in America. We're not going to be able to avoid a war with China, because Pooh Bear has to have a scapegoat and the U.S. will be it, but make no mistake, China is on the way down, not up...
- PeterStuer 4y ago
  Funny thing is you could write a very simillar post with the protagonists reversed.
  - throwaway290 4y ago
    How so? The US never had a one child policy and replenishes population by allowing migrants to become Americans (try becoming a Chinese--this basically never happens). Manufacturing is moving to the US. Regarding scapegoating it's China where you see government propaganda adverts showing terrible and ugly capitalist western countries, nothing even close the other way around.
  - cbozeman 4y ago

pyinstallwoes 4y ago

"Protect Taiwan" isn't the core issue is it? It's the production of chips which is the rate of technological growth and mantel of "technological supremacy."

stackbutterflow 4y ago
It is the core issue. The importance of TSMC has been vastly exaggerated. In case of war their factories would be destroyed anyway. Remove TSMC and the importance of Taiwan remains exactly the same. If the USA doesn't protect Taiwan it'll be their Suez canal moment. The moment the British and the French realized they were not great powers anymore.
- pyinstallwoes 4y ago
  Remove TSMC and where does the chip supply come from?

cycrutchfield 4y ago

>is the United States determined to deal with this earth war? How much are you willing to pay to protect Taiwan? A majority of Americans support defending Taiwan from Chinese invasion. How much are the Chinese people willing to pay to attempt the largest amphibious invasion since D-Day while being starved of oil and international trade?

stackbutterflow 4y ago
Most are indoctrinated. They do not understand the consequences of such a war on their country.
butterfly771 4y ago
Did Japan ever think that it would be settled by an atomic bomb when it invaded the whole of Asia in World War II? Confrontation at any time is a game, who knows who is the final winner?
- cycrutchfield 4y ago
  Picking a fight with the schoolyard bully can seem tempting, but the bully is a bully for a reason and odds are you get your face caved in.

hoseja 4y ago

Thousand years of humiliation this time.

another_story 4y ago

China under communist rule has a long history of changing their tune on a dime and the population going along with it without difficulty. If the Party decides tomorrow stoking nationalism is a bad idea it'll take a matter of weeks to have people saying, "The Taiwanese are our brothers, why would we fight them?" followed weeks later by "We never said we'd invade Taiwan, you just dont understand the way China works." In the last 80 years the Chinese have become masters of holding diametrically opposed ideas. I believe they can back down from this without breaking a sweat.