5 ms·

> The Covid-19 pandemic is the primary cause of the decline. However, increases in the number of people dying from overdoses and accidents is also a significant

> The Covid-19 pandemic is the primary cause of the decline. However, increases in the number of people dying from overdoses and accidents is also a significant factor. True statement but it should be the other way around. Deaths by overdoses are much more impactful in terms of life expectancy decline, since they mostly kill younger people.

mandmandam 4y ago
Careful there; that could lead to a conversation about the cost/benefits of how lockdowns were implemented. Then we'd have to look at how younger generations were sacrificed for the older. Then we might have to talk about how that happens in many areas, from wealth distribution to climate change policy, from environmental policy to corporate accountability. Not to mention the wars. Can't be letting that type of discussion into the zeitgeist. Wealthy people might get upset.
- not2b 4y ago
  The US didn't really do lockdowns; there were restrictions, particularly for international travel and to Hawaii, but people weren't confined to their homes as they were in other countries. Even in the more restrictive states you could always go out. But in many countries restrictions were much, much tougher.
  - davidro80 4y ago
- spookthesunset 4y ago
  The fact this is downvoted shows what an incredibly privileged life some people live. It’s easy to be all for lockdowns and shit when you own a home and make more than a quarter million dollars a year at your cushy work from home job. Meanwhile all the peasants expendable service workers out there had to keep on keeping on. It requires an incredible amount of privilege to buy into the Covid narrative that got sold to people.
- tenpies 4y ago
  It will also be very interesting to see how mortality data trends during the next couple of years. I know there's a cohort of people that are pointing out at a certain national level field experiment as the cause of increased mortality, but there are also very valid reasons why we would see an increase in mortality now. More data will reveal to which degree each group is correct, and thankfully, we have a robust control group.
hexsprite 4y ago
Good point, one could measure (est.) years lost rather than lives lost as a way to quantify that.
- spookthesunset 4y ago
  As it turns out quality adjusted life years has been the gold standard for measuring this before 2020. In a fit of hysteria we decided to toss that out the window (along with just about every single other bit of human knowledge). Imagine what would have been different if we used the industry standard way if measuring this sort of thing…
- hackflip 4y ago
  "Let's lock down young healthy people's lives for 2 years so that the 86 year olds make it to 87"
majormajor 4y ago
> True statement but it should be the other way around. Deaths by overdoses are much more impactful in terms of life expectancy decline, since they mostly kill younger people. This, of course, actually depends on the numbers from both (both ages and volumes). The graph has a very clear inflection point from 2019 to 2020, overdoses were increasing for quite a while before that, so do you actually have numbers suggesting that the 2020 and 2021 impact of overdoses and accidents is greater than the completely-new-to-those-years factor?
noodlenotes 4y ago
One death from overdose is more impactful than one death from Covid, but if the increase in number of deaths from Covid (0 -> 400,000/year [1]) is much greater than the increase in deaths from overdoses (78,000 -> 100,000/year [2]), then Covid is the primary cause of the decline. Deaths from accidents also only increased 39,000 -> 43,000/year [3]. Let's say the average age of someone who dies from Covid is 75. Their life expectancy is another 11 years. [4] And someone who dies from an overdose or accident at 30 would have had another 48 years on average. There would have to be (400,000*11)/48 = 92,000 (rough math) additional overdose and accident deaths to come close to the impact Covid has had on life expectancy decline. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths [2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/20211117.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/... [3] https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-traffic-fatalities https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-tra... [4] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

mandmandam 4y ago

Careful there; that could lead to a conversation about the cost/benefits of how lockdowns were implemented. Then we'd have to look at how younger generations were sacrificed for the older. Then we might have to talk about how that happens in many areas, from wealth distribution to climate change policy, from environmental policy to corporate accountability. Not to mention the wars. Can't be letting that type of discussion into the zeitgeist. Wealthy people might get upset.

not2b 4y ago
The US didn't really do lockdowns; there were restrictions, particularly for international travel and to Hawaii, but people weren't confined to their homes as they were in other countries. Even in the more restrictive states you could always go out. But in many countries restrictions were much, much tougher.
- davidro80 4y ago
spookthesunset 4y ago
The fact this is downvoted shows what an incredibly privileged life some people live. It’s easy to be all for lockdowns and shit when you own a home and make more than a quarter million dollars a year at your cushy work from home job. Meanwhile all the peasants expendable service workers out there had to keep on keeping on. It requires an incredible amount of privilege to buy into the Covid narrative that got sold to people.
tenpies 4y ago
It will also be very interesting to see how mortality data trends during the next couple of years. I know there's a cohort of people that are pointing out at a certain national level field experiment as the cause of increased mortality, but there are also very valid reasons why we would see an increase in mortality now. More data will reveal to which degree each group is correct, and thankfully, we have a robust control group.

hexsprite 4y ago

Good point, one could measure (est.) years lost rather than lives lost as a way to quantify that.

spookthesunset 4y ago
As it turns out quality adjusted life years has been the gold standard for measuring this before 2020. In a fit of hysteria we decided to toss that out the window (along with just about every single other bit of human knowledge). Imagine what would have been different if we used the industry standard way if measuring this sort of thing…
hackflip 4y ago
"Let's lock down young healthy people's lives for 2 years so that the 86 year olds make it to 87"

majormajor 4y ago

> True statement but it should be the other way around. Deaths by overdoses are much more impactful in terms of life expectancy decline, since they mostly kill younger people. This, of course, actually depends on the numbers from both (both ages and volumes). The graph has a very clear inflection point from 2019 to 2020, overdoses were increasing for quite a while before that, so do you actually have numbers suggesting that the 2020 and 2021 impact of overdoses and accidents is greater than the completely-new-to-those-years factor?

noodlenotes 4y ago

One death from overdose is more impactful than one death from Covid, but if the increase in number of deaths from Covid (0 -> 400,000/year [1]) is much greater than the increase in deaths from overdoses (78,000 -> 100,000/year [2]), then Covid is the primary cause of the decline. Deaths from accidents also only increased 39,000 -> 43,000/year [3]. Let's say the average age of someone who dies from Covid is 75. Their life expectancy is another 11 years. [4] And someone who dies from an overdose or accident at 30 would have had another 48 years on average. There would have to be (400,000*11)/48 = 92,000 (rough math) additional overdose and accident deaths to come close to the impact Covid has had on life expectancy decline. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths [2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/20211117.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/... [3] https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-traffic-fatalities https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-tra... [4] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html