3 ms·

> 12 August 2022, https://brownstone.org/articles/cdc-quietly-ends-differentia https://brownstone.org/articles/cdc-quietly-ends-differentia... > Unvaccinated p

by danans 4y ago

> 12 August 2022, https://brownstone.org/articles/cdc-quietly-ends-differentia https://brownstone.org/articles/cdc-quietly-ends-differentia... > Unvaccinated people now have the same guidance as vaccinated people > Someone might want to tell the millions of workers who lost their jobs It only took 1M dead people in the US to get there, and the death rate for the unvaccinated was many multiples that of the unvaccinated [1]. 1. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

itsthemmrvax 4y ago
walterbell 4y ago
Perhaps someone has the patience to review the track record of the last two years on attribution accuracy for classification of death causes, including the CDC's (re)statements on this topic.
- danans 4y ago
  Excess mortality due to COVID has been analyzed and found to be greater than even the official COVID death toll: https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/full... https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-have-been-7m-13m-excess-deaths-worldwide-during-the-pandemic https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-have-bee... If you have another explanation backed by something other than a conspiracy theory - like another massively correlated global cause of excess death that everyone else missed - then please share, because you will have uncovered the greatest internationally coordinated cover-up or cognitive lapse in human history.
  - walterbell 4y ago
    "Due to Covid" is open to debate. Is there international consensus on the statistical mapping between excess all-cause mortality, "with Covid" and "from Covid" deaths? All-cause mortality is especially useful when attribution of cause is open to debate.
    - danans 4y ago
      > Is there international consensus on the statistical mapping between excess all-cause mortality, "with Covid" and "from Covid" deaths? International consensus isn't required. Scientific consensus is the best we can do, and per Occam's razor, COVID is the best explanation we have for the excess deaths. The articles I linked make that falsifiable claims. You are making unfalsifiable speculative statements and asking vague unrelated rhetorical questions about process. Please make a specific claim about what you think the cause of the excess deaths is, like "influenza" or "car accidents", "natural die off of a previous population bubble", or some combination thereof, and provide citations to studies and data to back it up, as people would be interested in learning about that.
      - walterbell 4y ago
        Here's a recent (preprint) study, "Excess mortality in Germany 2020-2022", http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27319.19365 http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27319.19365 > The present study estimates the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. The state-of-the-art method of actuarial science is used to estimate the expected number of all-cause deaths in 2020 to 2022, if there had been no pandemic. Then the number of observed all-cause deaths is compared with this expected number of all-cause deaths, yielding the excess mortality in Germany for the pandemic years 2020 to 2022. > In 2020, the observed number of deaths was close to the expected number with respect to the empirical standard deviation. By contrast, in 2021, the observed number of deaths was two empirical standard deviations above the expected number. The high excess mortality in 2021 was almost entirely due to an increase in deaths in the age groups between 15 and 79 and started to accumulate only from April 2021 onwards. A similar mortality pattern was observed for stillbirths with an increase of about 11 percent in the second quarter of the year 2021. > Something must have happened in April 2021 that led to a sudden and sustained increase in mortality in the age groups below 80 years, although no such effects on mortality had been observed during the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
        ok_dad 4y ago
        Maybe when people started going back outside to do stuff? Did they account for the reduction in death in 2020 from other causes due to the lockdowns? Are you arguing no one really died from Covid but did die from the vaccines? Say what the heck you mean, Mr Bright, because you’re dancing around it like you’re on American idol or something.
origin_path 4y ago
"the death rate for the unvaccinated was many multiples that of the unvaccinated" This is false. You're assuming no deaths caused by vaccines, which isn't a valid assumption. When people compare all cause deaths they find little difference; this was also observed in the Pfizer trial where in fact the vaccinated arm had more deaths overall than the unvaccinated arm. Simply trading one cause of death for another is a bad move especially because "COVID deaths" were overwhelmingly in the elderly, very sick or both, but vaccine deaths tend to affect the young more than the old for some reason. This obviously doesn't include all the non-fatal injuries, of which there have been a staggering amount. Finally, the USA did not have 1 million COVID deaths. It had 1 million deaths labelled as COVID which is not the same thing given the financial incentives to over-label and minimal/zero checking of attribution accuracy. That's how you got the New York Times publishing a list of 1000 names of "COVID deaths" on the front page where literally the sixth name on the list was someone who was shot to death. Nobody was doing even the most basic sanity checks and as a consequence the data is garbage quality.

by danans 4y ago

itsthemmrvax 4y ago

walterbell 4y ago

Perhaps someone has the patience to review the track record of the last two years on attribution accuracy for classification of death causes, including the CDC's (re)statements on this topic.

danans 4y ago
Excess mortality due to COVID has been analyzed and found to be greater than even the official COVID death toll: https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)02796-3/full... https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-have-been-7m-13m-excess-deaths-worldwide-during-the-pandemic https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/15/there-have-bee... If you have another explanation backed by something other than a conspiracy theory - like another massively correlated global cause of excess death that everyone else missed - then please share, because you will have uncovered the greatest internationally coordinated cover-up or cognitive lapse in human history.
- walterbell 4y ago
  "Due to Covid" is open to debate. Is there international consensus on the statistical mapping between excess all-cause mortality, "with Covid" and "from Covid" deaths? All-cause mortality is especially useful when attribution of cause is open to debate.
  - danans 4y ago
    > Is there international consensus on the statistical mapping between excess all-cause mortality, "with Covid" and "from Covid" deaths? International consensus isn't required. Scientific consensus is the best we can do, and per Occam's razor, COVID is the best explanation we have for the excess deaths. The articles I linked make that falsifiable claims. You are making unfalsifiable speculative statements and asking vague unrelated rhetorical questions about process. Please make a specific claim about what you think the cause of the excess deaths is, like "influenza" or "car accidents", "natural die off of a previous population bubble", or some combination thereof, and provide citations to studies and data to back it up, as people would be interested in learning about that.
    - walterbell 4y ago
      Here's a recent (preprint) study, "Excess mortality in Germany 2020-2022", http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27319.19365 http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27319.19365 > The present study estimates the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. The state-of-the-art method of actuarial science is used to estimate the expected number of all-cause deaths in 2020 to 2022, if there had been no pandemic. Then the number of observed all-cause deaths is compared with this expected number of all-cause deaths, yielding the excess mortality in Germany for the pandemic years 2020 to 2022. > In 2020, the observed number of deaths was close to the expected number with respect to the empirical standard deviation. By contrast, in 2021, the observed number of deaths was two empirical standard deviations above the expected number. The high excess mortality in 2021 was almost entirely due to an increase in deaths in the age groups between 15 and 79 and started to accumulate only from April 2021 onwards. A similar mortality pattern was observed for stillbirths with an increase of about 11 percent in the second quarter of the year 2021. > Something must have happened in April 2021 that led to a sudden and sustained increase in mortality in the age groups below 80 years, although no such effects on mortality had been observed during the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
      - ok_dad 4y ago
        Maybe when people started going back outside to do stuff? Did they account for the reduction in death in 2020 from other causes due to the lockdowns? Are you arguing no one really died from Covid but did die from the vaccines? Say what the heck you mean, Mr Bright, because you’re dancing around it like you’re on American idol or something.

origin_path 4y ago

"the death rate for the unvaccinated was many multiples that of the unvaccinated" This is false. You're assuming no deaths caused by vaccines, which isn't a valid assumption. When people compare all cause deaths they find little difference; this was also observed in the Pfizer trial where in fact the vaccinated arm had more deaths overall than the unvaccinated arm. Simply trading one cause of death for another is a bad move especially because "COVID deaths" were overwhelmingly in the elderly, very sick or both, but vaccine deaths tend to affect the young more than the old for some reason. This obviously doesn't include all the non-fatal injuries, of which there have been a staggering amount. Finally, the USA did not have 1 million COVID deaths. It had 1 million deaths labelled as COVID which is not the same thing given the financial incentives to over-label and minimal/zero checking of attribution accuracy. That's how you got the New York Times publishing a list of 1000 names of "COVID deaths" on the front page where literally the sixth name on the list was someone who was shot to death. Nobody was doing even the most basic sanity checks and as a consequence the data is garbage quality.