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There really is no grand plan to increase capacity of the grid. I think there is some hope that improvements in battery/solar production somehow magically fix t

There really is no grand plan to increase capacity of the grid. I think there is some hope that improvements in battery/solar production somehow magically fix the energy problem. The EV "revolution" was really powered by one salesman's dream—Elon Musk. Decades before Tesla there was a lot of discussion about whether EVs powered by heavy and expensive batteries could ever be successful and sustainable at scale. It's why some companies tried (and are still trying) things like fuel cells/hydrogen (which has its own problems for sure). But Elon Musk just kind of decided for us that battery powered EVs were the future. Everyone will drive and all the logistics involved with battery and electric production were simply shuffled under the rug because the Telsa was pretty cool. The battery powered EV future is very much reliant on technology that doesn't exist yet, which must be invented before we run out of the raw materials (or more likely, wars disrupt the pipeline of these now precious materials) to make batteries and before the grid collapses under the weight of people thinking they are going to "save money" by getting an EV. We already see the outrage in home solar as those who got solar simply for the cost savings are losing their minds now that states are looking to tax them for leaving the grid.

bryanlarsen 4y ago
Norway is proof by example that you're wrong.
- Alupis 4y ago
  Norway (and the nordic countries in general) are rarely if ever a good example of anything in reality. Their populations are far too small (Norway is < 6 million for example, Los Angeles county alone is over 10 million) and natural resources in such excess that their situation doesn't apply to a nation the size of the US (325-350 million). Things they do don't scale to match the US.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Being smaller makes things harder, not easier.
    - Alupis 4y ago
      I'd like to know how one comes to that conclusion.
- themagician 4y ago
  How is that? There are 10 metro areas in the US alone with a population greater than all of Norway. There are, what, 200,000 or so Teslas in Norway? With massive oil reserves and massive wind farms. How exactly does what Norway has accomplished scale to the US? Or to China? The amount of cars in Norway is about 1% of the amount in the US.
  - clouddrover 4y ago
    > There are, what, 200,000 or so Teslas in Norway? At this moment there are 87,958 Teslas in Norway: https://elbilstatistikk.no/ https://elbilstatistikk.no/ Volkswagen sells the most EVs in Norway across all of its brands (VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT, Cupra, Porsche, Scania, MAN, etc.). Volkswagen Group develops platforms and the different brands build their variants on those platforms. The VW ID.4, VW ID.5, Audi Q4 e-tron, Audi Q4 e-tron sportback, Skoda Enyaq, and Skoda Enyaq coupe are brand variants of the same car.
    - kkfx 4y ago
      This is more interesting... https://norwaytoday.info/news/the-norwegian-state-is-covering-75-of-the-charging-costs-for-electric-cars/ https://norwaytoday.info/news/the-norwegian-state-is-coverin...
DennisP 4y ago
Musk didn't "decide for us," he made a product that's attractive to consumers. If the companies working on fuel cells and hydrogen manage to do the same, then maybe those will actually have an impact. The other reason electrics have done well is that battery costs have plummeted. If the trend continues, electric cars will be cheaper than ICE in a couple years. Meanwhile, fuel cells are still quite expensive, and hydrogen has a chicken-and-egg problem since it would require extensive new infrastructure. That's not a problem for electrics, where you can plug in even if you're the only electric in town. Yeah, we're going to need plenty of electricity. But that's a given, if we're going to decarbonize transportation. That's true even if you're running on hydrogen: if you're using "green hydrogen" from electrolysis then you're still using electricity. If you're using hydrogen made from natural gas, then you're effectively still burning fossil fuels.
kkfx 4y ago
Mh, a small note: seeing Toyota Mirai I doubt hydrogen fuel-cell cars would be less unsustainable than BEVs. Not counting their astronomic price, the complexity of the infra needed to distribute VERY high pressure gas with very little molecules they are still BEVs because fuel-cells are not so fast to adapt their power output as a result you get a small battery BEV, with the battery hyper-stressed. Something that hardly last.

bryanlarsen 4y ago

Norway is proof by example that you're wrong.

Alupis 4y ago
Norway (and the nordic countries in general) are rarely if ever a good example of anything in reality. Their populations are far too small (Norway is < 6 million for example, Los Angeles county alone is over 10 million) and natural resources in such excess that their situation doesn't apply to a nation the size of the US (325-350 million). Things they do don't scale to match the US.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  Being smaller makes things harder, not easier.
  - Alupis 4y ago
    I'd like to know how one comes to that conclusion.
themagician 4y ago
How is that? There are 10 metro areas in the US alone with a population greater than all of Norway. There are, what, 200,000 or so Teslas in Norway? With massive oil reserves and massive wind farms. How exactly does what Norway has accomplished scale to the US? Or to China? The amount of cars in Norway is about 1% of the amount in the US.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  > There are, what, 200,000 or so Teslas in Norway? At this moment there are 87,958 Teslas in Norway: https://elbilstatistikk.no/ https://elbilstatistikk.no/ Volkswagen sells the most EVs in Norway across all of its brands (VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT, Cupra, Porsche, Scania, MAN, etc.). Volkswagen Group develops platforms and the different brands build their variants on those platforms. The VW ID.4, VW ID.5, Audi Q4 e-tron, Audi Q4 e-tron sportback, Skoda Enyaq, and Skoda Enyaq coupe are brand variants of the same car.
  - kkfx 4y ago
    This is more interesting... https://norwaytoday.info/news/the-norwegian-state-is-covering-75-of-the-charging-costs-for-electric-cars/ https://norwaytoday.info/news/the-norwegian-state-is-coverin...

DennisP 4y ago

Musk didn't "decide for us," he made a product that's attractive to consumers. If the companies working on fuel cells and hydrogen manage to do the same, then maybe those will actually have an impact. The other reason electrics have done well is that battery costs have plummeted. If the trend continues, electric cars will be cheaper than ICE in a couple years. Meanwhile, fuel cells are still quite expensive, and hydrogen has a chicken-and-egg problem since it would require extensive new infrastructure. That's not a problem for electrics, where you can plug in even if you're the only electric in town. Yeah, we're going to need plenty of electricity. But that's a given, if we're going to decarbonize transportation. That's true even if you're running on hydrogen: if you're using "green hydrogen" from electrolysis then you're still using electricity. If you're using hydrogen made from natural gas, then you're effectively still burning fossil fuels.

kkfx 4y ago

Mh, a small note: seeing Toyota Mirai I doubt hydrogen fuel-cell cars would be less unsustainable than BEVs. Not counting their astronomic price, the complexity of the infra needed to distribute VERY high pressure gas with very little molecules they are still BEVs because fuel-cells are not so fast to adapt their power output as a result you get a small battery BEV, with the battery hyper-stressed. Something that hardly last.