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Californians Told Not to Charge Electric Cars Days After Gas Car Sales Ban
- remarkEon 4y agoHas anyone run the numbers on what the "gas car sales ban"[1] would do to increase electricity consumption in California? Is there a plan to scale up electricity production to meet that need? [1] I haven't read the law, so I don't actually know if it "bans" anything.
- themagician 4y agoThere really is no grand plan to increase capacity of the grid. I think there is some hope that improvements in battery/solar production somehow magically fix the energy problem. The EV "revolution" was really powered by one salesman's dream—Elon Musk. Decades before Tesla there was a lot of discussion about whether EVs powered by heavy and expensive batteries could ever be successful and sustainable at scale. It's why some companies tried (and are still trying) things like fuel cells/hydrogen (which has its own problems for sure). But Elon Musk just kind of decided for us that battery powered EVs were the future. Everyone will drive and all the logistics involved with battery and electric production were simply shuffled under the rug because the Telsa was pretty cool. The battery powered EV future is very much reliant on technology that doesn't exist yet, which must be invented before we run out of the raw materials (or more likely, wars disrupt the pipeline of these now precious materials) to make batteries and before the grid collapses under the weight of people thinking they are going to "save money" by getting an EV. We already see the outrage in home solar as those who got solar simply for the cost savings are losing their minds now that states are looking to tax them for leaving the grid.
- bryanlarsen 4y agoNorway is proof by example that you're wrong.
- Alupis 4y agoNorway (and the nordic countries in general) are rarely if ever a good example of anything in reality. Their populations are far too small (Norway is < 6 million for example, Los Angeles county alone is over 10 million) and natural resources in such excess that their situation doesn't apply to a nation the size of the US (325-350 million). Things they do don't scale to match the US.
- bryanlarsen 4y agoBeing smaller makes things harder, not easier.
- Alupis 4y agoI'd like to know how one comes to that conclusion.
- themagician 4y agoHow is that? There are 10 metro areas in the US alone with a population greater than all of Norway. There are, what, 200,000 or so Teslas in Norway? With massive oil reserves and massive wind farms. How exactly does what Norway has accomplished scale to the US? Or to China? The amount of cars in Norway is about 1% of the amount in the US.
- clouddrover 4y ago> There are, what, 200,000 or so Teslas in Norway? At this moment there are 87,958 Teslas in Norway: https://elbilstatistikk.no/ https://elbilstatistikk.no/ Volkswagen sells the most EVs in Norway across all of its brands (VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT, Cupra, Porsche, Scania, MAN, etc.). Volkswagen Group develops platforms and the different brands build their variants on those platforms. The VW ID.4, VW ID.5, Audi Q4 e-tron, Audi Q4 e-tron sportback, Skoda Enyaq, and Skoda Enyaq coupe are brand variants of the same car.
- kkfx 4y ago
- DennisP 4y agoMusk didn't "decide for us," he made a product that's attractive to consumers. If the companies working on fuel cells and hydrogen manage to do the same, then maybe those will actually have an impact. The other reason electrics have done well is that battery costs have plummeted. If the trend continues, electric cars will be cheaper than ICE in a couple years. Meanwhile, fuel cells are still quite expensive, and hydrogen has a chicken-and-egg problem since it would require extensive new infrastructure. That's not a problem for electrics, where you can plug in even if you're the only electric in town. Yeah, we're going to need plenty of electricity. But that's a given, if we're going to decarbonize transportation. That's true even if you're running on hydrogen: if you're using "green hydrogen" from electrolysis then you're still using electricity. If you're using hydrogen made from natural gas, then you're effectively still burning fossil fuels.
- kkfx 4y agoMh, a small note: seeing Toyota Mirai I doubt hydrogen fuel-cell cars would be less unsustainable than BEVs. Not counting their astronomic price, the complexity of the infra needed to distribute VERY high pressure gas with very little molecules they are still BEVs because fuel-cells are not so fast to adapt their power output as a result you get a small battery BEV, with the battery hyper-stressed. Something that hardly last.
- causality0 4y agoLast I heard US domestic energy consumption breaks down into about 50% electrical generation and 50% fossil fuel motors and engines of all types. Figure needing to roughly double electrical generating capacity to replace every internal combustion motor with an electric one.
- falcolas 4y agoI dont have specific numbers, but the formula is straightforward. Cars * 12000 * kwh/m EDIT: Numbers, with a tesla model 3. 15 000 000 * 12 000 * .24 Around 43 200 GWh. The total power generation in CA was around 194 000 GWh in 2021
- remarkEon 4y agoThanks. And how is this formula derived?
- falcolas 4y agoThe magic number of 12000 is the average number of miles a car is driven in a year. So, multiply that by kilowatt hours per mile, and you’ll get the energy consumption of one car per year. Times the number of cars in CA, and you have the amount of power used by cars in CA, and by association the power consumed to charge cars. There are some inefficiencies, but they’re in the 2% range.
- remarkEon 4y agoThanks again. So if your numbers are right, California needs to increase it's electricity production by ~25%. This seems hard, but I think that only because I'm used to other things where increasing output by 25% is very difficult. How much does California increase its electricity output each year? Does PG&E et. al. publish data on that? A quick google is failing me.
- frumper 4y agoWell, it’s more complicated than just A + B. Power is currently more constrained by peak, and most car charging isn’t done during peak. It is easier to produce more off peak than to increase peak. There is also a question of how efficient EVs might be in 13 years. Cars have tended to get incrementally more efficient over time and there is no reason to believe that won’t also happen with EVs.
- falcolas 4y ago
- rozab 4y agoI guess "13 years before gas car sales ban" doesn't quite have the same ring to it as "days after"
- Alupis 4y agoI think it more highlights the fact that our grid already cannot sustain high-demand usage, and adding a zillion EV's will not make the situation any better. Given how long it takes to build out major things to augment the grid, 13 years doesn't seem like enough time in all honesty. Also.. what's with the year 2035? Seems like everything we talk about today takes place by 2035... far enough away to not worry about it today but close enough to seem like we're doing something? If I was a betting man, I'd bet this "due date" will get punted once we get closer and realize we're still not ready for a full-blown EV fleet in this state.
- jerlam 4y agoCynical take: 2035 is after Gov. Newsom's term limits in California (2 terms, 4 years, 2026) and after being elected President and having the same 2 term limitation (2034). So any issues caused by these laws will come into effect after Newsom is out of office both for state and federal.
- bryanlarsen 4y agoThe grid is two things: generation and transmission. We need a lot more generation. But solar and wind have gotten incredibly cheap, and can be added quickly. Transmission is more expensive and difficult to replace. EV's don't need a lot more of it, since transmission is sized for peak demand, and EV's generally don't charge during peak periods. Transmission capacity will be stressed more by air conditioning demand than it will be by EV charging.
- Alupis 4y agoMassive roll-outs of either takes a lot of time and resources. There's also no guarantee that a build-out starting today will even be relevant in 13 years - just look at the warpspeed progress solar panel technology has enjoyed in the past decade. It's a lot easier to hand-wave away these concerns than it is to actually build them out. Just look at warehouse roofspace in this state - nearly all of which are perfectly flat and huge (thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of square footage) - but few are covered in solar panels. These things are incredibly expensive, and need to return the investment. We can't pretend the last 20 years of snail-paced build-outs are just because people don't care...
- inferiorhuman 4y ago*rolls eyes* Meanwhile Bay Area's been told not to drive three (3) times this year with the top suggestion: The best way to improve air quality on a daily basis is to drive less. Cars, light duty trucks, and other vehicles are the biggest source of air pollution, contributing 75 percent of emissions. Change up your commute and help the Bay Area breathe a little easier. Sacramento residents have seen "Spare the Air" days twice so far this year.
- rconti 4y agoIs that a lot? That doesn't sound like a lot from my ~20 years in the area.
- DennisP 4y agoNot as bad as the title implies. > consumers are urged to reduce energy use from 4-9 p.m. when the system is most stressed because demand for electricity remains high and there is less solar energy available So plug in before you go to bed, instead of when you get home from work.
- mdavis6890 4y agoI wonder if charges can be configured to wait for a given time to begin charging. That way you could plug in your car whenever you want, but still get the benefit of waiting.
- collinmcnulty 4y agoMy Chevy Bolt has exactly such a setting.
- QuercusMax 4y agoMy Leaf had a charging timer feature back in 2016, so yes, this is definitely available.
- ortusdux 4y agoHow smart are standard level 2 chargers and cars? As I understand it, you can recoup about 25 miles of range per hour with a Lvl 2, so most people would only need to charge for a few hours per night. Can these systems negotiate with grid and charge at the ideal time?
- geekymartian 4y agoExactly, fear mongering , click baiting, etc. My car even has a timer to do that already normally, because it's the right thing to do. gee
- frumper 4y agoHeadline feels like clickbait. The flex alert isn't specific to EV's, it's a plea to reduce all usage between 4pm-9pm. These are not uncommon alerts during heatwaves in California.
- tails4e 4y agoWhy is domestic solar so expensive in the US? I've a 6.4kwp plus 5kwh battery system and it cost me 9k. I've heard prices of 40k to 70k for us domeestic (roof top) installs my brother in law, who lives in the US, told me he was quoted. His roof is not that big, so I estimate less than 8kwp. That's 4x to 7x the price I paid in Europe, so why so expensive? Solar in a heatwave sounds like a great thing to have.
- inferiorhuman 4y agoAt least in the Bay Area I think a large part of the problem with residential solar is simply local red tape. Systemwide though solar can be a pretty large chunk of the power grid. Right now renewables are about a third of the current electricity supply (and I believe historically it's topped out at closer to 80-90% under the right conditions) with solar being 80% of that. http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.aspx http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.aspx
- ch4s3 4y agoTariffs and higher labor costs.
- tails4e 4y agoAs posted above, for a 6.4kp major raw material cost, retail, is 6.5k. 14 450w panels at 200ea (2.8k), inverter at 1.6k, battery at 2.1k, is 6.5k. Some roofing mounts etc needed too, but that's a few hundred at most. So unless labour is about 5k per person per day, it's hard to see how 30k is even close to justified. And don't forget these companies are buying the materials cheaper than you or I can.
- drivebycomment 4y agoMore electric cars with V2G could become an important tool for avoiding blackouts in the future. California has 17M cars. If 30% were electric with 10KWh charge usable for V2G, that's nearly 50GWh. That would be enough to let grid survive most demand peaks.
- sgammon 4y agoafter sales ban *proposal Bad newsweek. Bad. https://i.imgflip.com/1ys0zg.jpg https://i.imgflip.com/1ys0zg.jpg