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In our experience, even deep learning technologists at the top of their game are surprised when we point out that deep learning (or any other form of AI) strugg

In our experience, even deep learning technologists at the top of their game are surprised when we point out that deep learning (or any other form of AI) struggles when tasked with predicting the future. It seems to do a pretty good job of predicting future stock market performance. But of course the authors have an axe to grind and choose to view the world through their narrow filter, probably because they want to promote their book and tap into the "tech is bad" trope thats going on in the wider culture. Most significantly, AGI hypers have succeeded in directing a large amount of funding toward the fanciful goal of ensuring that this supposedly imminent AGI will be aligned with humanity’s interests. Crucially, much of this community believes that we already have all the innovations we need to reach AGI; we just need to throw more hardware at the neural networks we already have. The problem with this argument is that we have no idea what the "warning signs" of imminent AGI is. It could take 2-3 key breakthroughs or it could take a few hundred. Whatever the case is, we should think about investing in a fire alarm system before theres a fire.

andrepd 4y ago
> It seems to do a pretty good job of predicting future stock market performance. Does it? Care to elaborate on that?
- andreilys 4y ago
  Well the obvious example is RenTech's Medallion fund which consistently out-performs human stock traders. The Medallion Fund has employed mathematical models to analyze and execute trades, many of them automated. The firm uses computer-based models to predict price changes. These models are based on analyzing as much data as can be gathered, then looking for non-random movements to make predictions. [1] Renaissance Technologies' Medallion fund, which from 1988 to 2018 clocked annualized returns of 66%. After fees, those annualized returns were still remarkable, at 39%.[2] [1] https://wealthofgeeks.com/medallion-fund/#:~:text=Algorithmic%20Trading,random%20movements%20to%20make%20predictions https://wealthofgeeks.com/medallion-fund/#:~:text=Algorithmi.... [2]https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/articles/top-hedge-funds-this-year#:~:text=Perhaps%20the%20most%20enigmatic%20and,still%20remarkable%2C%20at%2039%25 https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/articles/top-hedge-....
  - bobsomers 4y ago
    > Well the obvious example is RenTech's Medallion fund which consistently out-performs human stock traders. The article isn't critical of mathematical models, it's specifically critical of deep learning. Is there any evidence that the Medallion Fund uses deep learning? Are there any funds that have said they use deep learning that have a consistent track record of beating the market? My (admittedly anecdotal) understanding is that many, many people have tried using deep learning to predict the market and I'm not aware of anyone who has had long term, consistent success with it.
  - andrepd 4y ago
    The famous medallion fund is running for decades before there was (practical) deep learning. Offtopic: I still bet the "secret sauce" is insider trading :)

andrepd 4y ago

> It seems to do a pretty good job of predicting future stock market performance. Does it? Care to elaborate on that?

andreilys 4y ago
Well the obvious example is RenTech's Medallion fund which consistently out-performs human stock traders. The Medallion Fund has employed mathematical models to analyze and execute trades, many of them automated. The firm uses computer-based models to predict price changes. These models are based on analyzing as much data as can be gathered, then looking for non-random movements to make predictions. [1] Renaissance Technologies' Medallion fund, which from 1988 to 2018 clocked annualized returns of 66%. After fees, those annualized returns were still remarkable, at 39%.[2] [1] https://wealthofgeeks.com/medallion-fund/#:~:text=Algorithmic%20Trading,random%20movements%20to%20make%20predictions https://wealthofgeeks.com/medallion-fund/#:~:text=Algorithmi.... [2]https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/articles/top-hedge-funds-this-year#:~:text=Perhaps%20the%20most%20enigmatic%20and,still%20remarkable%2C%20at%2039%25 https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/articles/top-hedge-....
- bobsomers 4y ago
  > Well the obvious example is RenTech's Medallion fund which consistently out-performs human stock traders. The article isn't critical of mathematical models, it's specifically critical of deep learning. Is there any evidence that the Medallion Fund uses deep learning? Are there any funds that have said they use deep learning that have a consistent track record of beating the market? My (admittedly anecdotal) understanding is that many, many people have tried using deep learning to predict the market and I'm not aware of anyone who has had long term, consistent success with it.
- andrepd 4y ago
  The famous medallion fund is running for decades before there was (practical) deep learning. Offtopic: I still bet the "secret sauce" is insider trading :)