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I find it more illuminating to look at resolved prediction markets for concrete benchmarks; many of which have resolved faster and more positively than expected
by nmca 4y ago
I find it more illuminating to look at resolved prediction markets for concrete benchmarks; many of which have resolved faster and more positively than expected. https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/ https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting-one-year-in/
I guess we will have to see what happens, but starting an anti deep learning blog after the staggering progress of the last six months seems pretty wild...
- rafaelero 4y agoThe beauty of all is that it actually seems we are underestimating current methods of AI. The noise (especially in this community) is very high though, so I suggest everyone just look at the experts predictions from the year before and compare with what we have achieved.