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We have a stock market investment bubble. Deep learning, AI, metaverse, blockchain, quantum computing, self driving cars, and this very website's whole shtick a

We have a stock market investment bubble. Deep learning, AI, metaverse, blockchain, quantum computing, self driving cars, and this very website's whole shtick all revolve around fumbling for an answer that isn't there. "Technology" is set for a long winter of commoditization and consolidation. Technology as a standalone sector will become sleepy with all the excitement being in every other sector of the economy leveraging cheaper and better technology for their own benefit.

echelon 4y ago
That's one way to look at it. Another is that AI/ML will replace illustrators, musicians, vocalists, and the like. That "metaverse" will take over gaming and lead to powerful new filmmaking techniques. I'm building something in this space and I can tell you that these technologies are powerful because people who aren't "traditionally skilled" are using these tools to create amazing content and excel. This stuff is going to eat the world. Not sure about the other domains you mentioned, but I'm sure they have ardent believers too.
- wikitopian 4y ago
  VR does not add enough value to counteract the UI problem that most of the people who try to use it experience nausea, vomiting, and visceral aversion. Minecraft is plenty cool and my four year old is making amazing stuff in it. But increasing the resolution, frame rate, and immersiveness of that experience is decidedly evolutionary, not revolutionary. And there was already no money in music or graphics design before the machines showed up, so I'm not sure how that's going to justify the investment bubble.
  - echelon 4y ago
    The tech stack isn't just VR/AR, but includes the scale and affordability of rendering, increasingly wide range of sensor input types, spatial computing, mocap, photogrammetry etc. https://youtu.be/RR_3eMIP6YE https://youtu.be/RR_3eMIP6YE https://youtu.be/QM8qOoYK3Fs https://youtu.be/QM8qOoYK3Fs (mildly NSFW) https://youtu.be/2-1G8JUWoG8 https://youtu.be/2-1G8JUWoG8 (same techniques but narrative) Pretty soon everyone is going to have access to world class creative tools that give them the same capabilities that previously only studios with institutional capital had. This is the creative decade.
Der_Einzige 4y ago
Unlike the other technologies listed, Deep Learning, AI, and to a lesser extent, "partial self driving" exist today, are rapidly advancing, and are producing massive amounts of value. You can play with the AI systems yourself too. Don't even talk about them in the same sentence as useless shit like the metaverse or blockchain tech.
- trention 4y ago
  >are producing massive amounts of value Point me to a single DL-exclusive company that has an annual turnover of >1 billion dollars and is profitable.
  - Der_Einzige 4y ago
    Huggingface
    - trention 4y ago
      Huggingface doesn't have a revenue of even close to a billion dollars.

echelon 4y ago

That's one way to look at it. Another is that AI/ML will replace illustrators, musicians, vocalists, and the like. That "metaverse" will take over gaming and lead to powerful new filmmaking techniques. I'm building something in this space and I can tell you that these technologies are powerful because people who aren't "traditionally skilled" are using these tools to create amazing content and excel. This stuff is going to eat the world. Not sure about the other domains you mentioned, but I'm sure they have ardent believers too.

wikitopian 4y ago
VR does not add enough value to counteract the UI problem that most of the people who try to use it experience nausea, vomiting, and visceral aversion. Minecraft is plenty cool and my four year old is making amazing stuff in it. But increasing the resolution, frame rate, and immersiveness of that experience is decidedly evolutionary, not revolutionary. And there was already no money in music or graphics design before the machines showed up, so I'm not sure how that's going to justify the investment bubble.
- echelon 4y ago
  The tech stack isn't just VR/AR, but includes the scale and affordability of rendering, increasingly wide range of sensor input types, spatial computing, mocap, photogrammetry etc. https://youtu.be/RR_3eMIP6YE https://youtu.be/RR_3eMIP6YE https://youtu.be/QM8qOoYK3Fs https://youtu.be/QM8qOoYK3Fs (mildly NSFW) https://youtu.be/2-1G8JUWoG8 https://youtu.be/2-1G8JUWoG8 (same techniques but narrative) Pretty soon everyone is going to have access to world class creative tools that give them the same capabilities that previously only studios with institutional capital had. This is the creative decade.

Der_Einzige 4y ago

Unlike the other technologies listed, Deep Learning, AI, and to a lesser extent, "partial self driving" exist today, are rapidly advancing, and are producing massive amounts of value. You can play with the AI systems yourself too. Don't even talk about them in the same sentence as useless shit like the metaverse or blockchain tech.

trention 4y ago
>are producing massive amounts of value Point me to a single DL-exclusive company that has an annual turnover of >1 billion dollars and is profitable.
- Der_Einzige 4y ago
  Huggingface
  - trention 4y ago
    Huggingface doesn't have a revenue of even close to a billion dollars.