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Wow. It just occurred to me that folks here younger than 28 have never seen an actual recession (I'm assuming that under-12s could not care less about business

Wow. It just occurred to me that folks here younger than 28 have never seen an actual recession (I'm assuming that under-12s could not care less about business news and missed the early 90s bust). It's just been one long boom for you, right? I suspect the world is about to surprise you in a very unpleasant way.

maxklein 18y ago
You want to bet? I say there will be no recession, you say there will be a recession. Sure, I've never seen a recession, but that does not mean that I am unable to differenciate a real problem from a manageable problem. McCain was right - the fundamentals of the economy ARE strong. A recession starts at the bottom - it starts when people stop spending. It does not start at the top. What is happening right now is just a restructuring. A flesh wound, one could say.
- tom_rath 18y ago
  Believe whatever you want. It doesn't make it true. Do you know that Detroit was once one of the wealthiest cities in the United States? Things change. What you're seeing now is a period of dramatic change. Approach it as you'd like.
  - maxklein 18y ago
    Sorry, I don't know much about Detroit. From Wikipedia, it seems like Detroit is fine. But I have no real idea how it looks like in the city.
    - sown 18y ago
      Executive summary: it is a shit hole.
    - thaumaturgy 18y ago
      Try searching for, "Detroit urban decay", "Detroit empty lots", or "Detroit vacant". I'm sure Detroit's residents will be happy to know that Wikipedia gave them a sound bill of health. If you'd like to buy some property in Detroit and tell 'em yourself, you can get it reeeeeeeaaaally cheap: http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/022350.html http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/022350.html
- unexpected 18y ago
  Please point me to these strong fundamentals. All the fundamentals that I see: national debt, incredibly low treasury rate, whacked out LIBOR rate, and inflation tell me otherwise.
  - maxklein 18y ago
    National Debt : $9 Trillion. National GDP: $13 Trillion. Science and Research - #1. Innovation - #1. It took 8 years to create this debt. It will take a while to get it off, but it's a freakin powerhorse we're talking about here. It's not South Africa, it's the biggest economy in the world. All these things you speak about are momentary things. They react to short term events. The problems right now are due to the gambling nature of many American businesses - but it's that same nature that makes American #1 in so many ways. This is just a correction. It's not a recession. America has been living above it's means and will drop down a notch or two, but the fundamentals are very strong. Education - good Science & Research - good Investment & Risk Taking - good Intellectual Capital - good Natural resources - good America is fine, people are just using this bubble cycle as propaganda for an election, and you guys are panicking. Take it easy - go scoop up some stocks at rock bottom prices like the richest man in the world is doing.
    - vital_sol 18y ago
      The biggest economy in the world is European Union, not US (as measured by GDP.)
      - evgen 18y ago
        Except that the European Union is not an integrated economy, it is a federation of inter-dependent economies that share a common currency, as the clusterfuck regarding how it will respond to the current crisis is showing.
    - unexpected 18y ago
      I'm curious- do you know what the economic definition of a recession is? Do you know any other country with such a debt to GDP ratio? Do you know what the significance of having that much debt is? Do you realize that's equivalent to someone who makes $100k a year having ~$70k in credit card debt? That's not "normal"- that's the person that has the Dr. Phil intervention on Oprah. To you, things may look okay. I'll tell you what's actually happened though, as you've looked outside at your normal life. Over a million people this year have lost their homes. Over a million people are projected to lost their homes next year. Education: More and more of our jobs are being taken up by H-1 foreigners. I'm the son of immigrants- this isn't meant to be xenophobic- we're not producing graduates capable of tomorrow's challenges. Too many college students are too focused on how they're going to get their next handjob and not on their D in calculus. Research: Bush has cut funding for science and research dramatically. Don't just make assumptions, look it up. Most academics and professors hate Bush. There's a reason why most schools are liberals now. Intellectual Capital: Our best asset. Slowly being trickled a way by a generation worrying about what happened on Gossip Girls and Lindsay Lohan's lesbian relationship. Natural resources: what resources? Timber? grass? food? The only one that matters, oil, is in short supply. We only produce 3% of the world's oil supply, and use 25% of it. Meanwhile, rather than eliminate oil entirely, half the population thinks drilling more oil and adding 4% to our supply 15 years from now will fix our energy woes. This is not a rant, and I'm not some bitter curmudgeon. I'm a young, healthy 24 year-old, and this is reality.
- run4yourlives 18y ago
  Your country has never looked as bad economically, ever. That includes the great depression. While controls are still in place (thank god) to prevent bread lines, how well you Americans adapt (and how the rest of us react) to the very real possibility that you cease to be a superpower remains to be seen. All I can say is that Russia was not a fun place to live in in the early 90's.
- thaumaturgy 18y ago
  Well, people have stopped spending: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/business/14spend.html http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/business/14spend.html The irony of your statement, for me, is that just yesterday my local newspaper ran a front-page feature on some local businesses worried about Christmas spending: http://www.theunion.com/article/20081007/NEWS/810079993&parentprofile=search http://www.theunion.com/article/20081007/NEWS/810079993&... Even McCain has reversed his stance on the economy (according to his website).
- mattchew 18y ago
  If you really are confident and want to bet, you can actually do it at Intrade (and others). Right now the betting market is strongly weighted toward recession in 2009. Taking the other side of that bet will be quite profitable if it pays off.
run4yourlives 18y ago
Heh, I think the same thing every time this topic comes up here on HN. I don't think it's just the young though. I think a lot of people have forgotten how bad things can get. The last real recession was in the early 90's for most. Unless you were heavy into tech stocks or worked in the industry, the only thing that you noticed about the dot com boom was the superbowl commercials. It's amazing how people believe that things will stay the same forever. When we're booming, it will always be that way, when it's bust, life will never get better. I for one am looking to profit as much as possible on people's ignorance, but I know that won't be easy when I'm having to make my own cut backs.

maxklein 18y ago

You want to bet? I say there will be no recession, you say there will be a recession. Sure, I've never seen a recession, but that does not mean that I am unable to differenciate a real problem from a manageable problem. McCain was right - the fundamentals of the economy ARE strong. A recession starts at the bottom - it starts when people stop spending. It does not start at the top. What is happening right now is just a restructuring. A flesh wound, one could say.

tom_rath 18y ago
Believe whatever you want. It doesn't make it true. Do you know that Detroit was once one of the wealthiest cities in the United States? Things change. What you're seeing now is a period of dramatic change. Approach it as you'd like.
- maxklein 18y ago
  Sorry, I don't know much about Detroit. From Wikipedia, it seems like Detroit is fine. But I have no real idea how it looks like in the city.
  - sown 18y ago
    Executive summary: it is a shit hole.
  - thaumaturgy 18y ago
    Try searching for, "Detroit urban decay", "Detroit empty lots", or "Detroit vacant". I'm sure Detroit's residents will be happy to know that Wikipedia gave them a sound bill of health. If you'd like to buy some property in Detroit and tell 'em yourself, you can get it reeeeeeeaaaally cheap: http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/022350.html http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/022350.html
unexpected 18y ago
Please point me to these strong fundamentals. All the fundamentals that I see: national debt, incredibly low treasury rate, whacked out LIBOR rate, and inflation tell me otherwise.
- maxklein 18y ago
  National Debt : $9 Trillion. National GDP: $13 Trillion. Science and Research - #1. Innovation - #1. It took 8 years to create this debt. It will take a while to get it off, but it's a freakin powerhorse we're talking about here. It's not South Africa, it's the biggest economy in the world. All these things you speak about are momentary things. They react to short term events. The problems right now are due to the gambling nature of many American businesses - but it's that same nature that makes American #1 in so many ways. This is just a correction. It's not a recession. America has been living above it's means and will drop down a notch or two, but the fundamentals are very strong. Education - good Science & Research - good Investment & Risk Taking - good Intellectual Capital - good Natural resources - good America is fine, people are just using this bubble cycle as propaganda for an election, and you guys are panicking. Take it easy - go scoop up some stocks at rock bottom prices like the richest man in the world is doing.
  - vital_sol 18y ago
    The biggest economy in the world is European Union, not US (as measured by GDP.)
    - evgen 18y ago
      Except that the European Union is not an integrated economy, it is a federation of inter-dependent economies that share a common currency, as the clusterfuck regarding how it will respond to the current crisis is showing.
  - unexpected 18y ago
    I'm curious- do you know what the economic definition of a recession is? Do you know any other country with such a debt to GDP ratio? Do you know what the significance of having that much debt is? Do you realize that's equivalent to someone who makes $100k a year having ~$70k in credit card debt? That's not "normal"- that's the person that has the Dr. Phil intervention on Oprah. To you, things may look okay. I'll tell you what's actually happened though, as you've looked outside at your normal life. Over a million people this year have lost their homes. Over a million people are projected to lost their homes next year. Education: More and more of our jobs are being taken up by H-1 foreigners. I'm the son of immigrants- this isn't meant to be xenophobic- we're not producing graduates capable of tomorrow's challenges. Too many college students are too focused on how they're going to get their next handjob and not on their D in calculus. Research: Bush has cut funding for science and research dramatically. Don't just make assumptions, look it up. Most academics and professors hate Bush. There's a reason why most schools are liberals now. Intellectual Capital: Our best asset. Slowly being trickled a way by a generation worrying about what happened on Gossip Girls and Lindsay Lohan's lesbian relationship. Natural resources: what resources? Timber? grass? food? The only one that matters, oil, is in short supply. We only produce 3% of the world's oil supply, and use 25% of it. Meanwhile, rather than eliminate oil entirely, half the population thinks drilling more oil and adding 4% to our supply 15 years from now will fix our energy woes. This is not a rant, and I'm not some bitter curmudgeon. I'm a young, healthy 24 year-old, and this is reality.
run4yourlives 18y ago
Your country has never looked as bad economically, ever. That includes the great depression. While controls are still in place (thank god) to prevent bread lines, how well you Americans adapt (and how the rest of us react) to the very real possibility that you cease to be a superpower remains to be seen. All I can say is that Russia was not a fun place to live in in the early 90's.
thaumaturgy 18y ago
Well, people have stopped spending: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/business/14spend.html http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/business/14spend.html The irony of your statement, for me, is that just yesterday my local newspaper ran a front-page feature on some local businesses worried about Christmas spending: http://www.theunion.com/article/20081007/NEWS/810079993&parentprofile=search http://www.theunion.com/article/20081007/NEWS/810079993&... Even McCain has reversed his stance on the economy (according to his website).
mattchew 18y ago
If you really are confident and want to bet, you can actually do it at Intrade (and others). Right now the betting market is strongly weighted toward recession in 2009. Taking the other side of that bet will be quite profitable if it pays off.

run4yourlives 18y ago

Heh, I think the same thing every time this topic comes up here on HN. I don't think it's just the young though. I think a lot of people have forgotten how bad things can get. The last real recession was in the early 90's for most. Unless you were heavy into tech stocks or worked in the industry, the only thing that you noticed about the dot com boom was the superbowl commercials. It's amazing how people believe that things will stay the same forever. When we're booming, it will always be that way, when it's bust, life will never get better. I for one am looking to profit as much as possible on people's ignorance, but I know that won't be easy when I'm having to make my own cut backs.