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There is a attrition warfare right now, and both sides are dug in. Russia has a non-existent morale and questionable logistics, so it is doubtful that they will

There is a attrition warfare right now, and both sides are dug in. Russia has a non-existent morale and questionable logistics, so it is doubtful that they will end up winning. NATO will never lose interest, providing Ukraine with what they need is the cheapest way to keep Russia at bay, and there is an arms race with China. Putin's rule can't last forever. Ukraine also wouldn't allow Russia to hold onto any of the terrories it gained, worst case they can wage an asymmetric war making the occupation exceedingly costly. Russia will run out of steam, because this war is both unjust and unsustainable. It is doubtful that nuclear weapons used for their psychological effect could weaken the Ukrainian resolve. The tactical advantages would be negligible, and Ukraine would end up gaining more support from the world.

PaulHoule 4y ago
Russian logistics are very good when they are good. Within their rail network they have this service https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Railway_Troops https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Railway_Troops If they have logistics in place you have the siege of Mariupol where they can fire an astonishing amount of rocket artillery, but if the logistics aren't in place you have the abortive attack on Kiev that the war began with.
ghostwriter 4y ago
> Ukraine also wouldn't allow Russia to hold onto any of the terrories it gained, worst case they can wage an asymmetric war making the occupation exceedingly costly. Once the population of the gained territories begins to get paid for recovering their own cities [1], it becomes exceedingly more difficult for the other side to sell the idea of any military resistance on that land. It worked in Korea [2]. It will work in former eastern Ukrainian territories that have been looking for alignment with Russia even before 2022. [1] https://www.youtube.com/c/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%83%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE/videos https://www.youtube.com/c/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%83%D0%... [2] https://www.asianstudies.org/publications/eaa/archives/an-unpromising-recovery-south-koreas-post-korean-war-economic-development-1953-1961/ https://www.asianstudies.org/publications/eaa/archives/an-un...

PaulHoule 4y ago

Russian logistics are very good when they are good. Within their rail network they have this service https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Railway_Troops https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Railway_Troops If they have logistics in place you have the siege of Mariupol where they can fire an astonishing amount of rocket artillery, but if the logistics aren't in place you have the abortive attack on Kiev that the war began with.

ghostwriter 4y ago

> Ukraine also wouldn't allow Russia to hold onto any of the terrories it gained, worst case they can wage an asymmetric war making the occupation exceedingly costly. Once the population of the gained territories begins to get paid for recovering their own cities [1], it becomes exceedingly more difficult for the other side to sell the idea of any military resistance on that land. It worked in Korea [2]. It will work in former eastern Ukrainian territories that have been looking for alignment with Russia even before 2022. [1] https://www.youtube.com/c/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%83%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE/videos https://www.youtube.com/c/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D1%83%D0%... [2] https://www.asianstudies.org/publications/eaa/archives/an-unpromising-recovery-south-koreas-post-korean-war-economic-development-1953-1961/ https://www.asianstudies.org/publications/eaa/archives/an-un...