4 ms·
No - that's way too narrow of a view of his overall assessment which is basically that a couple of things matter to a country: 1. Access to key resources (food
by 121789 4y ago
No - that's way too narrow of a view of his overall assessment which is basically that a couple of things matter to a country:
1. Access to key resources (food, energy, other products/services). That includes being able to manufacture
2. Demographics
His general position is that the current state of the global economy for #1 is due to risk free global trade due to American guarantees on shipping safety post-WWII. He thinks this is unlikely to continue forever, and he works through the scenarios for individual countries if supply chains have to become more regional/local.
He basically says some countries are in good positions (France, Norway, Sweden, US, most of Southeast Asia) because they have decent demographics, enough military (mostly naval) power, and enough access to critical resources. Other countries are in bad positions (China, Korea, a bunch of others I'm forgetting)
He's "pro-America" mainly because the US is energy independent, food independent, capable of manufacturing anything (and if they can't, they already have alliances with the rest of the Americas to do it), with decent demographics, geographic isolation from other countries that have issues, and a good military to protect shipping. He's "anti-China (and Korea)" because they have rapidly aging demographics, limited access to a bunch of supplies, and no naval power (and in Korea's case, they are stuck in the middle of a bunch of other potentially hostile powers).
I think the US audience is definitely more likely to accept his messages, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's wrong. He could be completely wrong, but it's at least a very interesting perspective (and I think the basis for some of Elon's recent comments).