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Yeah, how's Huawai doing again since those sanctions in 2019? https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-vendors-since-4t

Yeah, how's Huawai doing again since those sanctions in 2019? https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-share-held-by-smartphone-vendors-since-4th-quarter-2009/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-sha... Also he's clearly speaking in generalities as a rhetorical device. Obviously China can do "some" high-end chip work, and obviously not all cell phone and laptop chips are made in the US. But he is correct that the high end IP and design work is US-centric, with a decent chunk of manufacturing as Intel maintains US fabs. It's the same as if I said "France doesn't produce oil, all the world's important oil supplies come from the Persian Gulf nations!". That's technically wrong, as France is currently world's 72nd largest oil producer (https://www.worldometers.info/oil/france-oil/ https://www.worldometers.info/oil/france-oil/) and the US/Russia/North Sea/others are a large chunk of global markets. But it is correct in that the world writ large cannot function without middle eastern oil, whereas it can function without French oil. The reason the US doesn't build low-end chips at scale is economics. The reason China doesn't build high-end chips at scale is capability.

causi 4y ago
The reason China doesn't build high-end chips at scale is capability. Does it matter though? Sure, China might be three or four years behind the bleeding edge, but does that gap actually make as much of a difference as Zeihan thinks it will? If you replaced all my electronics with an equivalent that was five years older I would be mildly inconvenienced but my life wouldn't change at all. He also ignores some pretty big things. Like I've read all his books and watched probably twenty hours of his talks and not once has he brought up the fact that American Millennials and Gen z-ers are not having children.
- scottLobster 4y ago
  When you look at the theoretical capabilities of 5G networks and potential first-mover advantages it might matter quite a bit. It also matters from a standpoint of military tech, which given the Taiwan question could make a big difference. Is it the be-all-end-all? No, and perhaps he's overstating it as a factor, but it is a substantial factor economically. I don't know what talks you've seen or if you've read his latest book, he's brought up quite a bit that Gen-Z is tiny, and that American Millenials only buy the US an extra few decades, and that current millennial fertility rate is extremely low (I've only seen this last point on more recent podcasts, to be fair). We don't get to escape mass-aging, we just get to watch the rest of the developed world go first and hopefully gain better position/draw some lessons on what to do about it.
  - causi 4y ago
    When you look at the theoretical capabilities of 5G networks and potential first-mover advantages it might matter quite a bit. I don't see how. Has 5G changed anything at all? People today are using their smartphones with 300mbit 5G connections for the exact same things they were using them for with 30mbit 4G connections and largely the same things they were using 3mbit 3G connections for. What's changed since 2012? Do you use your smartphone any differently than you did a decade ago?
    - jmeister 4y ago
      Videos. Tiktok. Video calls. Zoom.
    - scottLobster 4y ago
      It's not so much about consumers as businesses and infrastructure. 5G speed and device capacity increases have the capability to truly bring about pure wireless communication infrastructure that's cheap, efficient, reliable and performant enough that we could actually get some legit cyberpunk-ish tech built on top of it. Comparing 4G LTE to 5G is like comparing traditional oil wells to shale. Your gasoline may not change except perhaps in price, but the business and geopolitical side is completely transformed and there's a new surge in economic growth. https://www.spiceworks.com/tech/networking/articles/lte-vs-five-g/ https://www.spiceworks.com/tech/networking/articles/lte-vs-f...
      - causi 4y ago
        5G speed and device capacity increases have the capability to truly bring about pure wireless communication infrastructure that's cheap, efficient, reliable and performant enough that we could actually get some legit cyberpunk-ish tech built on top of it. What? Multiplayer VR does not require that much bandwidth. efficient, reliable To me this is where 5G is worse than useless. The advent of 5G means companies have effectively stopped expanding 4G networks. The places I go with no data connectivity are exactly the same as they were five years ago and ten years ago. Where does 5G exist that 4G didn't exist beforehand?

causi 4y ago

The reason China doesn't build high-end chips at scale is capability. Does it matter though? Sure, China might be three or four years behind the bleeding edge, but does that gap actually make as much of a difference as Zeihan thinks it will? If you replaced all my electronics with an equivalent that was five years older I would be mildly inconvenienced but my life wouldn't change at all. He also ignores some pretty big things. Like I've read all his books and watched probably twenty hours of his talks and not once has he brought up the fact that American Millennials and Gen z-ers are not having children.

scottLobster 4y ago
When you look at the theoretical capabilities of 5G networks and potential first-mover advantages it might matter quite a bit. It also matters from a standpoint of military tech, which given the Taiwan question could make a big difference. Is it the be-all-end-all? No, and perhaps he's overstating it as a factor, but it is a substantial factor economically. I don't know what talks you've seen or if you've read his latest book, he's brought up quite a bit that Gen-Z is tiny, and that American Millenials only buy the US an extra few decades, and that current millennial fertility rate is extremely low (I've only seen this last point on more recent podcasts, to be fair). We don't get to escape mass-aging, we just get to watch the rest of the developed world go first and hopefully gain better position/draw some lessons on what to do about it.
- causi 4y ago
  When you look at the theoretical capabilities of 5G networks and potential first-mover advantages it might matter quite a bit. I don't see how. Has 5G changed anything at all? People today are using their smartphones with 300mbit 5G connections for the exact same things they were using them for with 30mbit 4G connections and largely the same things they were using 3mbit 3G connections for. What's changed since 2012? Do you use your smartphone any differently than you did a decade ago?
  - jmeister 4y ago
    Videos. Tiktok. Video calls. Zoom.
  - scottLobster 4y ago
    It's not so much about consumers as businesses and infrastructure. 5G speed and device capacity increases have the capability to truly bring about pure wireless communication infrastructure that's cheap, efficient, reliable and performant enough that we could actually get some legit cyberpunk-ish tech built on top of it. Comparing 4G LTE to 5G is like comparing traditional oil wells to shale. Your gasoline may not change except perhaps in price, but the business and geopolitical side is completely transformed and there's a new surge in economic growth. https://www.spiceworks.com/tech/networking/articles/lte-vs-five-g/ https://www.spiceworks.com/tech/networking/articles/lte-vs-f...
    - causi 4y ago
      5G speed and device capacity increases have the capability to truly bring about pure wireless communication infrastructure that's cheap, efficient, reliable and performant enough that we could actually get some legit cyberpunk-ish tech built on top of it. What? Multiplayer VR does not require that much bandwidth. efficient, reliable To me this is where 5G is worse than useless. The advent of 5G means companies have effectively stopped expanding 4G networks. The places I go with no data connectivity are exactly the same as they were five years ago and ten years ago. Where does 5G exist that 4G didn't exist beforehand?